Dividend stocks outperform non-dividend-paying stocks over the long run. It happens in good markets and bad, and the benefit of dividends can be quite striking -- dividend payments have made up about 40% of the market's average annual return from 1936 to the present day.
But few of us can invest in every single dividend-paying stock on the market, and even if we could, we're likely to find better gains by being selective. Today, two of the world's largest game publishers will square off in a head-to-head battle to determine which offers a better dividend for your portfolio.
Tale of the tape
Founded in 1979, Activision Blizzard (ATVI +0.00%) is the holding company for video game publishers Activision and Blizzard Entertainment. It is the world's largest publisher of online, PC, console, handheld, and mobile interactive entertainment software. Headquartered in Santa Monica, California, Activision's video game development centers are located throughout the United States, Europe, and Asia, and the company's products are sold across the globe. The company also boasts industry-dominating franchises in World of Warcraft and Call of Duty. Activision recently bought out the portion of its stake held by Vivendi for $5.8 billion from Vivendi to become a fully independent company. Last year, and investors have been bidding shares up ever since.
Founded in 2004 by Chi Yufeng, the onetime president of Human Software Corporation, Perfect World (PWRD +0.00%) is a leading online game developer and operator specializing in massively multiplayer online role playing games, or MMORPGs, for the Chinese market. Headquartered in Beijing, Perfect World offers popular Chinese MMORPGs such as Legend of Martial Arts, Zhu Xian, Battle of the Immortals, and the Perfect World series. The company utilizes a time-based payment model for Perfect World and an item-based freemium model for its other games. Perfect World also licenses its MMORPGs to leading game operators in Asia, Latin America, Australia, New Zealand, the Russian Federation, and other Russian-dominant territories.
|
Statistic |
Activision Blizzard |
Perfect World |
|---|---|---|
|
Market cap |
$15.0 billion |
$1.1 billion |
|
P/E ratio |
21.5 |
16.1 |
|
Trailing 12-month profit margin |
22% |
14.7% |
|
TTM free cash flow margin* |
26% |
21.7% |
|
Five-year total return |
124.8% |
114.6% |
Source: Morningstar and YCharts.
*Free cash flow margin is free cash flow divided by revenue for the trailing 12 months.
Round one: endurance (dividend-paying streak)
According to Dividata, Activision has paid uninterrupted annual dividends since 2010, which equates to a 4-year dividend-paying streak. Perfect World, on the other hand, started paying annual dividends in 2012, and has been paying ever since.
Winner, Activision Blizzard, 1-0.
Round two: stability (dividend-raising streak)
Activision has been increasing annual shareholder distributions since 2011, while Perfect World's dividend-raising streak hasn't actually begun yet, as it reduced dividend distributions last year from 2012's payout. That makes this one another easy win for Activision.
Winner: Activision Blizzard, 2-0.
Round three: power (dividend yield)
Some dividends are enticing, but others are merely tokens that barely affect an investor's decision. Have our two companies sustained strong yields over time? Let's take a look:
ATVI Dividend Yield (TTM) data by YCharts
Winner: Perfect World, 1-2.
Round four: strength (recent dividend growth)
A stock's yield can stay high without much effort if its share price doesn't budge, so let's take a look at the growth in payouts over the past five years.
ATVI Dividend data by YCharts
Winner: Activision Blizzard, 3-1.
Round five: flexibility (free cash flow payout ratio)
A company that pays out too much of its free cash flow in dividends could be at risk of a cutback, particularly if business weakens. We want to see sustainable payouts, so lower is better:
ATVI Cash Dividend Payout Ratio (TTM) data by YCharts
Perfect World's payout ratio doesn't show up here, but its last distribution, recorded in 2012, was a whopping 98% of its free cash flow. That's scary high, and far too reliant on steady growth in this metric's to earn the Chinese developer a win here.
Winner: Activision Blizzard, 4-1.
Bonus round: opportunities and threats
Activision Blizzard may have won the best-of-five on the basis of its history, but investors should never base their decisions on past performance alone. Tomorrow might bring a far different business environment, so it's important to also examine each company's potential, whether it happens to be nearly boundless or constrained too tightly for growth.
Activision Blizzard opportunities
- Activision has already sold nearly 20 million copies of Call of Duty: Ghosts.
- Blizzard will release expansions for Diablo 3 and WoW this year.
- Blizzard also appears set to capitalize on freemium online card game Hearthstone.
- Activision's Skylanders became the third best-selling franchise in North America and Europe.
- The releases of new PlayStation and Xbox consoles are driving next-gen game sales.
Perfect World opportunities
- Perfect World will design customized games for Huawei's upcoming TRON gaming console.
- The Chinese gaming market is expected to increase at an annualized rate of 16% through 2017.
- China lifted its ban on game consoles shortly before Huawei and Perfect world paired up.
- Perfect World has already released 11 expansion packs to its MMORPG properties
- Perfect World will invest in two major gaming portals in China.
Activision Blizzard threats
- Electronic Arts' (EA 0.14%) sports franchise will release the next Madden football and FIFA soccer iterations soon.
- Electronic Arts has also released Titanfall, one of the most-anticipated new games in years.
- Take-Two Interactive's mega blockbuster Grand Theft Auto V is slated to launch in 2015.
- Gamers may tire of Activision's high-priced but low-value add-on content strategy.
Perfect World threats
- NetEase (NTES +0.40%) is developing a 3-D fantasy MMORPG called Revelations that could become China's answer to WoW.
- Shanda Games (NASDAQ: GAME) plans to release 36 mobile games, including a version of globally renowned Final Fantasy XIV.
- Shanda recently launched mobile gaming platform G-Home to lure MMO subscribers.
- Giant Interactive's latest MMORPG, World of Xianxia, is further splintering the Chinese online market.
One dividend to rule them all
In this writer's humble opinion, it seems that Activision has a better shot at long-term outperformance, because of an unmatched track record of hits including Call of Duty, World of Warcraft, Diablo, and Skylanders. In addition, Activision's sequel and expansion-pack strategy should continue to drive growth for at least the near future. Perfect World is also well-positioned to capitalize on a rise in online gaming interest across China, but unlike Activision, there appears to be no dominant franchise in its stable to hold gamers' interest -- yet. You might disagree, and if so, you're encouraged to share your viewpoint in the comments below. No dividend is completely perfect, but some are bound to produce better results than others. Keep your eyes open -- you never know where you might find the next great dividend stock!
