Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.
What: Shares of Green Dot Corporation (GDOT -4.13%) began the trading day on Thursday by surging nearly 13% higher, but have since given up nearly all of those gains to fall back to a gain of less than 2% near the end of the trading day. Early optimism about Green Dot's big earnings beat has given way to a shoulder shrug as investors changed their minds about the company's progress.
So what: Green Dot's first-quarter revenue rose a mere 3.4% year over year to reach $159.3 million, which was a little weaker than the $160.7 million consensus from Wall Street, but the company's adjusted earnings of $0.42 per share trounced analyst expectations for $0.30 in EPS. Green Dot's guidance is the same -- the company still expects to generate between $640 million and $650 million in full-year revenue, which is better than the $637 Wall Street estimate -- but its full-year EPS guidance of $1.22 to $1.28 falls a little short of the $1.27 analyst consensus.
Now what: Green Dot's adjusted EPS was $1.15 for 2013, so the midpoint of its EPS guidance range for this year represents year-over-year growth of roughly 9% on the bottom line. However, the company is still a way off of its earlier performance -- 2011's adjusted EPS was $1.55, and 2012's was $1.37. Green Dot has yet to recapture the trust of shareholders who were burned by the bottom-line drops of recent years and, while it's making progress today, that progress remains somewhat modest, which isn't the sort of progress a serious growth investor wants to see before diving in.
