I went out on a limb last week, and now it's time to see how that decision played out.
- I predicted that Netflix (NFLX 0.73%) would go on to hit another all-time high after established a new high mark on Wednesday of the prior week. Despite checking in with an impressive 31 Emmy nominations -- more than double last year's haul of 14 nods -- the stock never traded higher than it did at the prior week's close. I was wrong.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI 1.56%) had been clobbering the Nasdaq Composite through April and early May, but it's been the other way around in recent weeks. My second prediction was for the Nasdaq to continue its winning ways by outperforming the the Dow. It didn't. The Nasdaq's 1.5% slide was twice as bad as the Dow's closing 0.7% lower. I was wrong.
- My final call was for Wells Fargo (WFC 2.12%) to beat Wall Street's income estimates in its latest quarter. The banking behemoth had beaten analyst targets consistently over the past few quarters, and I was banking on a repeat performance. We saw it close out the quarter with a profit of $1.01 a share. Analysts had been projecting net income of $1.01 a share. I match is not a beat. I was wrong.
Whiffing on all three? Ouch! I need to get back on track after two bad weeks of prognostications.
Let me once again whip out my trusty, dusty, and occasionally accurate crystal ball to make three calls that may play out over the next few trading days.
1. SodaStream will move higher on the week
Shares of SodaStream (SODA +0.00%) hit another two-year low on Thursday. The company behind the namesake beverage system is clearly out of favor. SodaStream's sales are growing at a slowing yet reasonable clip, but profitability has hit a few rough patches.
SodaStream won't be reporting results in the week ahead, but the general value of the shares -- now trading for less than 14 times next year's projected earnings -- make it too tempting to ignore. My first call is for SodaStream to close higher on the week.
2. The Dow will closed lower this week
It's no surprise that the market is vulnerable. The market slumped last week, and several companies warned of weak reports coming this earnings season. This isn't a very favorable backdrop ahead of the wave of quarterly results that will be unleashed in the coming weeks.
The silver lining for investors is that a lot of people are ringing the alarm bell, making it less likely that it will actually happen. However, given the strong likelihood of soft reports in the coming days it pays to be cautious. My second call is for the Dow to close lower for the week.
3. SanDisk will beat Wall Street's earnings estimates
Some stocks are just flat-out better than others.
SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK) is the top dog when it comes to flash sales. Another thing it does is make analysts look like perpetual underachievers. If analysts say the company rang up a profit of $1.39 a share in its latest quarter, I'll argue that it held up better than that. History's on my side!
One of my best tricks to beating the market is finding stocks that perpetually land ahead of the prognosticators. Let's go over the past year of earnings reports.
| Quarter |
EPS Estimate |
EPS |
Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Q2 2013 |
$0.93 |
$1.21 |
30% |
|
Q3 2013 |
$1.32 |
$1.59 |
21% |
|
Q4 2013 |
$1.58 |
$1.71 |
8% |
|
Q1 2014 |
$1.26 |
$1.44 |
14% |
Source: Thomson Reuters.
Things can change, of course. SanDisk is thriving in an era when flash memory is becoming the standard storage solution across a growing number of consumer electronics, but the trend's been moving to cloud storage where the Internet is the new hotbed of saved media files.
That's all stuff to keep in mind down the road, but not now. Everything seems to be falling into place for another market-thumping quarter on the bottom line.
