Does MediaTek Really Benefit if Qualcomm Inc. Stumbles With the Snapdragon 810?

In one of my earlier articles, a reader left a link to a recent story titled "MediaTek rebounds on Qualcomm's (QCOM -0.85%) chip issues," published by Taiwan News. According to the article, reports have surfaced that MediaTek has "received more 4G chip orders as its rival chipmaker Qualcomm was struggling with chip issues."

The article also claims that due to the alleged delays with the Snapdragon 810, smartphone vendors have "shifted orders to MediaTek to ensure a smooth supply." It adds that the winners in this situation will be MediaTek and Taiwan Semiconductor.

This all seems plausible until you realize that while handset vendors might have shifted orders from Qualcomm to MediaTek, it likely has nothing to do with a potential Qualcomm Snapdragon 810 delay.

Let's look at what LTE chips MediaTek is planning to ship
According to the report, MediaTek's brand new MT6732 and MT6752 processors have been in production since October, and devices powered by the latter chip will ship "before the Lunar New Year of 2015," or mid-February 2015.

The highest-end MediaTek chip listed in the article -- the MT6752 -- offers the following specifications:

Source: MediaTek. .

This is a solid midrange chip. But if you look at what Qualcomm is offering with the Snapdragon 810, it becomes clear the chips aren't even in the same league:

Source: Qualcomm.

The Qualcomm chip sports a faster processor complex, likely a faster graphics processor, a much more advanced LTE modem, and better imaging and video encoding/decoding. These processors aren't direct competitors by any stretch of the imagination.

Some thoughts
In terms of performance and capabilities, the MT6752 looks far more like a Qualcomm Snapdragon 800/801 competitor than it does a rival to the Snapdragon 810 or 808. For this reason, I highly doubt that any potential delay in the Snapdragon 810 (if such a delay is real) would cause any smartphone vendors to shift orders from Qualcomm to MediaTek.

Additionally, I'm not convinced Taiwan Semiconductor would really benefit from handset vendors moving towards MediaTek chips. While Qualcomm does have secondary sources for chip manufacturing, it is well known that Qualcomm builds the vast majority of its chips at Taiwan Semiconductor. MediaTek also relies heavily on Taiwan Semiconductor, and it may even contract with the company exclusively (in contrast to Qualcomm). As a result, share movements between Qualcomm and MediaTek should not have a significant impact on Taiwan Semiconductor.

All told, I think the hoopla surrounding these potential chip delays on Qualcomm's part are overblown, particularly as the company has already reaffirmed early 2015 availability of the Snapdragon 810. Qualcomm shareholders should have nothing to worry about.