Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.
What: Shares of Civeo Corporation (NYSE:CVEO) jumped 11% today as investors became more bullish on the company's future as oil prices rose.
So what: The price of oil has jumped nearly 6% today to $52.40 per barrel and the recovery has investors hoping that shale and oil sands producers won't cut back production as much as feared. Since Civeo provides lodging services to Canadian oil sands and shale plays in North Dakota and Texas a cutback in spending could have been devastating to their business.
Now what: Civeo's shares are down nearly 90% from their peak in 2014 and any positive news about oil prices could drive earnings higher. The problem is that oil prices aren't nearly high enough for shale drillers and oil sands companies to reverse lower investments in 2015.
Management said late last month that it still expects EBITDA of $45 million to $55 million in 2015, which would give investors a decent value at today's $340 million market cap. But that's only a good value if oil continues to recover. I think investors are getting a good price and shares can move higher, but like other companies servicing the oil industry right now Civeo is a high-risk stock, so investors need to watch closely to see how operations proceed in 2015.