Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.
What: Shares of Navistar International Corp (NYSE:NAV) plunged as much as 10% today after reporting a bigger-than-expected loss.
So what: Fiscal second-quarter results were released this morning, and Navistar's revenue fell 2%, to $2.69 billion, and fell short of the $2.82 billion analysts expected. Net loss improved from a $297 million loss a year ago to a $64 million loss, but the loss of $0.78 per share greatly exceeded the $0.18 loss investors expected.
Now what: Operations improved significantly from a year ago, and management seems to be executing on its turnaround plans. But the timing and pace of that improvement is in question, and Wall Street has high expectations for when it expects Navistar to turn a profit. Analysts expected a $0.71 per-share profit this year, which seems out the window at this point, and $3.12 in earnings per share next year. Those projections may have gotten ahead of reality, so investors should lower expectations. The drop in shares reflects that a recovery may take a little longer than expected.