What to Expect When Alphabet Inc. Reports Earnings

Credit: Alphabet

Armed with a new operating structure as of October 2, 2015, Google parent Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL) is set to release third-quarter 2015 results this Thursday after the market close.

But don't expect a separate breakdown of Alphabet's operating subsidiaries just yet; Alphabet won't implement segment-specific reporting until its fourth-quarter report roughly three months from now. In the meantime, this week's report will mark the last detailing Google's performance as it existed before the reorganization.

As such, we'll continue to see results primarily reported on a consolidated basis. Analysts, on average, predict Google's consolidated revenue will rise 12.2% year over year to $18.54 billion, and translate to 13.5% growth in net income per share to $7.21.

On currency headwinds, cost management
Keeping in mind Google typically generates more than half its revenue overseas (55% last quarter), we're also likely to see continued significant currency headwinds reflected in Google's results. Though consolidated revenue climbed 11% last quarter to $17.73 billion, for example, revenue would have climbed 18% had foreign exchange not been a factor. 

In addition, recall three months ago recently appointed CFO Ruth Porat excited investors by insisting Google will not only focus on "developing big new opportunities across a wide range of businesses," but also "do so with great care regarding resource allocation." Put another way -- and despite Alphabet's massive $70 billion cash hoard -- Porat effectively validated previous reports that Google was planning to be more strategic with costs in light of what many investors viewed as haphazard spending. Listen closely, then, for any signs that Google's more calculated resource allocation is bearing fruit.

Breaking it down
At 90.4% of total sales last quarter, Google's core advertising business will continue to drive the vast majority of Alphabet's revenue. This figure will be reported in two parts in Q2: First, ad revenue from Google's own sites (up 13% last quarter to $12.4 billion), and second, ad revenue from Google Network Members' sites (up 2% in Q2 to $3.6 billion). 

Relatedly, we'll also receive stats on growth in Google's aggregate paid clicks (up 18% in Q2), which itself will be broken down into paid clicks on Google sites (up 30% in Q2), and those from network member sites (down 9% last quarter).

Arguably even more important will be supplementary information on aggregate cost-per-click, which measures how much Google makes per ad. Last quarter, aggregate cost-per-click fell 11%, driven by a 16% drop on Google sites and a 3% decrease from Google Network Member sites. But don't be surprised if Google's cost-per-click declines again. According to Porat, the recent downward trend is largely due to strong growth in YouTube viewership, where TrueView video ads tend to monetize at lower rates than typical Google ad impressions. As I wrote in my earnings recap in July, "lower monetization from a fast-growing incremental source of advertising revenue is an enviable problem to have."

Finally -- and indeed, perhaps for the final time -- you'll see another relative black box in the form of Google's "Other" revenue line item, which primarily reflects the fruits of segments like Google Play and Nexus mobile devices. For perspective, Other revenue in the second quarter rose 17% year over year to $1.7 billion, which management vaguely attributed to "substantial growth" from Google Play, offset by a decline in hardware sales. They did elaborate later, however, that Google Play Games added an incredible 180 million new users in the six months prior to that report, validating Big G's decision last year to affix Android Gaming front and center in its efforts to capture your living room with Android TV.

In any case, I'm sure I'm not the only investor looking forward to the potential for added clarity on Alphabet's various other businesses in next quarter's report, including but not limited to Calico (focused on longevity), Capital (investment), Ventures (more investment), Fiber (high-speed Internet), Life Sciences (the team behind the glucose-sensing contact lens), Nest (connected home), and X Lab ("moonshot" initiatives). But until then, this week's report should serve to give investors their final peek at the state of the Internet titan we've grown to know and love.