What: Shares of aircraft manufacturer Embraer SA (ADR) (NYSE:ERJ) are down 10.7% at 11:45 a.m. EST on March 3, following release of the company's fourth quarter financial results.
So what: Embraer reported a relatively solid quarter, though it came up short of Wall Street analyst expectations (or did the analysts expect too much?), the drop is tied to a few different things.
The impact -- or concerns of what the impact will be -- of the Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing of Republic Airways Holdings is playing a role. Embraer recorded nearly $101 million in provisions related to the Republic bankruptcy. These provisions are tied to Republic's current fleet of Embraer jets, specifically its fleet of 50 ERJ145 aircraft. There's also concern that the Republic bankruptcy could cost Embraer sales, with 24 aircraft in its backlog on order from Republic expected to be delivered this year and next. From the earnings release:
Republic currently operates a fleet of 230 Embraer jets, of which 50 are of the ERJ145 family of aircraft and 180 are E170/E175 jet models. The final Republic decision on how it will manage the future operation of these aircraft, and the receipt of future aircraft deliveries related to firm orders in Embraer's backlog, is still ongoing.
However, Embraer's total firm backlog includes over 500 aircraft, worth almost $16 billion in revenue, so even if Republic's bankruptcy drags on, the total impact should be relatively minor in the big picture. Furthermore, as fellow Fool (and airline expert) Adam Levine-Weinberg pointed out recently, Embraer's regional jets are relatively profitable aircraft, and even if the orders from Republic were to be cancelled or delayed, other airlines would almost certainly soak up those orders in the short-term.
The other concern seems to be over the macroeconomic environment in Brazil, where Embraer is based. Brazil's economy continues to struggle, and double-digit inflation is pushing up the company's costs, which could weigh on profits in the near term.
Now what: There are some near-term macro pressures for Embraer, but demand for the types of aircraft it produces -- particularly for commercial and corporate customers -- remains strong, and is expected to remain strong for the next several years.
That's not to say that there won't be some short-term pain, but that the market's reaction may be more speculative than what the actual impact will be. Stay tuned for more in-depth earnings analysis on Embraer in coming days.