Rich is good, folks. I had set up bear traps all over my opening argument, figuring that Rich would attack Sirius
I'm not chewing my fingers to the bone on this one. See, the company decided to cancel its insurance policy last summer after a careful review that included the health of its satellite constellation along with the costs and exclusions of the available policies out there. Yes, those pesky exclusions. Sirius concluded that there was a possibility that a catastrophic failure would not be covered by any of the available in-orbit satellite insurance alternatives.
It wasn't just a case of being thrifty, mind you. A month earlier, XM had to settle with its insurers after they weren't willing to pay up the full costs of launching a third satellite after XM witnessed power degradation trends in its two original Boeing
So why kid yourself with a phantom policy? It's like having a homeowner insurance policy in Florida without windstorm coverage. Besides, an insurance policy doesn't prevent an in-orbit disaster. That money is better spent quickly lining up a spare satellite if needed.
Back in March, Rich was up against Sirius in our Stock Madness 2005 competition. When Tim Beyers suggested that Sirius could have 20 million subscribers by 2010, Rich scoffed at the notion. Based on the 1.1 million Sirius subscribers at the end of 2004, Rich argued that the company would have to grow its base by 77% a year.
Guess what? Sirius continues to grow faster than its own public projections. It recently revised its subscriber count forecast from 2.5 million up to 2.7 million users by the end of this year. 77% growth a year from there? Wow. That would be 46.9 million subscribers by the end of 2010. That would represent about $7 billion in basic subscription revenue alone.
Even at a more feasible 20 million subscribers, there are so many new revenue streams that will be paddled between now and then. Yes, bears, the joke is most definitely on you this time.
In Rich's March argument, he proposed the following:
"Hey, why don't we just name Sirius the winner of this tournament right here and now?"
Funny? Perhaps. But a few rounds later, Sirius was crowned the champion.
You're not done. This is just one part of a four-part Duel! Don't miss the Bull and Bear opening arguments and the Bear rebuttal. When you're done, vote and let us know who you think won this Duel. If you appreciate ultimate growth stock investing -- in companies just like Sirius -- you may want to give our Motley Fool Rule Breakers newsletter service a try.
Longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz is a Sirius subscriber, but he doesn't own any shares mentioned in this argument. He is also part of the Rule Breakers newsletter research team, seeking out tomorrow's ultimate growth stocks a day early. The Fool has a disclosure policy .
