We live and die one catchphrase at a time. We can't help it. Mantras feel so good as they roll from our tongues. We cling to them because they're catchy, like cotton candy on sticky fingers.
We can be so stupid sometimes.
OK, let me narrow that down. I can be so stupid sometimes. I've been seduced by market poetry. I've accepted a battle cry like "bulls make money, bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered" as a Wall Street truism. But maybe it's time I stick up for this little piggy that went to market.
I understand why bulls make money. There's a historical advantage to being long. Daily downticks and corporate meltdowns show how bears make money, even if it's a trickier practice, given the market's tendency to inch higher over long stretches of time.
But I get lost about this obsession with turning a pig into canned pork product. What's the problem here? Are you a glutton at the feeding trough if you hold onto a company for too long? Of course not. Great investors like Warren Buffett have held winning stocks for generations. Are you piggish because you hold onto a 10-bagger with the hope that it will roll into a 20-bagger? If so, hold your snout up high, because some other Nervous Nellie cashed out earlier when it was just a five-bagger.
I would argue that "bulls make money, bears make money, pigs make more" is a better slogan. Yes, it sounds hedonistically stubborn. There's a certain stench of Gordon Gekko arrogance in claiming that greedy investors come out ahead. However, history teaches us that there are times when it's good to be a pig.
Investors were snapping up shares of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) four years ago for less than $14 a share. A 2-for-1 stock split two years later lowered that price to an adjusted basis of less than $7 a pop. Those who didn't want to be greedy may have cashed out two years later, when the stock was a seven-bagger. Those still holding onto the maker of iPods and watching over the revival of the Mac are now sitting on a 15-bagger.
When pigs fly
That got me thinking: If that sound bite is flawed, how many other morsels of investing wisdom come with hollow centers? How many people boil down market philosophy to four simple words that can burn them in the end?
Way too many, I'm afraid. My good friend Bill Barker has done a great job of singling out four-word philosophies that work; now I've unearthed my own set of less fortunate maxims. See if any of these have burned you as badly as they have scorched me in the past.
The P/E is low
Stocks aren't cheap just because the multiples on their trailing earnings are low. Homebuilders have low price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios on a trailing basis, but some pretty sobering markups if we look ahead. Utility stocks may trade at low prices, but the same can be said for their growth prospects. A stock with a low P/E is not necessarily cheap.
The P/E is high
Apple sported a high P/E ratio through most of its run. Motley Fool Rule Breakers recommendations such as burrito roller Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG) and robotic surgery specialist Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ:ISRG) always seem to go for market premiums. The key here is that they are growing the bottom line quickly. They have also earned their keep by perpetually trouncing already lofty expectations. A stock with a high P/E is not necessarily expensive.
Sell on the news
Speculative investors buy on the rumor and sell when they're right, but where's the joy in that? They took on the risk of a certain event taking place, but they're not going to stick around to enjoy the spoils of victory? You saw this happen when Apple rolled out the iPod in 2001. You also saw this happen when Disney's (NYSE:DIS) Pixar was a standalone company. It always seemed as if the stock took a hit whenever one of its films opened, even though every single one of them proved to be a box office blockbuster. Shareholders who held had the last laugh, owning a company that beat the market averages on the way to a $7.4 billion buyout by Disney.
Buy low, sell high
This is probably the most overused tidbit of market jargon. It ignores the obvious: We often don't know what defines too low -- or too high -- until it's too late. Hitting a fresh 52-week low is rarely the sign of a trough. A new 52-week high is unlikely to be a peak. Chinese Internet video game specialist The9 (NASDAQ:NCTY) was on a tear a year ago when it topped the $30 mark to hit an all-time high. Chinese growth stocks seemed vulnerable. The Chinese government was cracking down on the expansion of Internet cafes. Had The9 peaked? Not really. The stock has gone on to tack on another 30% gain over the past year.
All hogs go to heaven
So where does that leave you? Hopefully, you haven't tethered your life to an arsenal of clever, empty words. Few market truisms are universal. Look around long enough, and you'll find more exceptions to the rule for any prolific claim.
Stocks march to their own beats. Hotels seem like a slow growth business? Try telling that to Morgans Hotel (NASDAQ:MHGC). The operator of upscale, boutique properties has seen its shares double over the past eight months. IMAX (NASDAQ:IMAX) shares are up 44% so far this year, despite an anti-theater sentiment that found multiplex giant AMC Theaters calling off its IPO last week.
I don't follow the guidelines in seeking out my next stock purchase. I know that rules are perpetually broken. I'm smarter than that.
Okay, let me broaden that a bit. We're smarter than that.
Want a four-word phrase that may make you rich, instead? Why not give Motley Fool Rule Breakers a shot? The newsletter picks promising stocks that are reshaping the competitive landscape. Chipotle, Intuitive Surgical, and IMAX are active recommendations. And even though "there's no free lunch" is another popular four-word phrase, I'll let you in on a free 30-day pass to eat as much as you like.
This article was originally published on April 10, 2007. It has been updated.
Longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz doesn't like to speak in four-word sentences. Well, maybe this time. He does own shares in Disney. He is part of the Rule Breakers newsletter research team, seeking out tomorrow's ultimate growth stocks a day early. Disney is a Motley Fool Stock Advisor pick. Chipotle is also a Hidden Gems recommendation. The Fool has a disclosure policy.
