This Just In: Upgrades and Downgrades

At The Motley Fool, we poke plenty of fun at Wall Street analysts and their endless cycle of upgrades, downgrades, and "initiating coverage at neutral." So you might think we'd be the last people to give virtual ink to such "news." And we would be -- if that were all we were doing.

But in "This Just In," we don't simply tell you what the analysts said. We'll also show you whether they know what they're talking about. To help, we've enlisted Motley Fool CAPS, our tool for rating stocks and analysts alike. With CAPS, we'll be tracking the long-term performance of Wall Street's best and brightest -- and its worst and sorriest, too.

And speaking of the best ...
"Best" is a bit strong of a word to describe our featured analyst today. Rather, let's just call Caris & Co. "better." As in: "With a CAPS rating of 73.75, Caris is better than most investors -- but the analyst still gets only 46% of its picks right." Yet it appears that a pre-earnings downgrade from this more-often-wrong-than-right analyst is all that lies behind the decline in Under Armour (NYSE:UA) shares today. No other news has broken -- at least that I'm aware of -- to explain why Under Armour (UA) shares are sliding several times as quickly as the rest of the market today.

I suspect that Caris is just covering its Speedos to ensure that it doesn't get hurt too badly if UA disappoints tomorrow. Endorsing UA stock has already cost Caris 23 points' worth of market underperformance, and the analyst surely doesn't relish the thought of falling farther behind if UA throws a shoe in Tuesday's earnings report. But might there be more to it than that? Let's examine Caris' record to learn whether these bankers are bonkers -- or brilliant.

Let's go to the tape
Caris gets off to a good start right out of the gate, with a pair of picks in UA's bailiwick that are both outperforming the market nicely:

Unfortunately, it doesn't take long for the analyst's 46% record for accuracy to catch up with it. Check out the banker's scores on the following clothiers:

And so once again, we find Caris getting it wrong more often than right.

So what about Under Armour?
But will Caris' prediction pan out for UA? I'm not so sure. Granted, the stock is looking a mite pricey at a price-to-earnings ratio of 30 versus 23% projected earnings growth. But that 30 P/E incorporates first-quarter numbers that we all knew were going to be weak.

UA's busy making massive investments in its business. Those investments should torpedo profitability once again tomorrow -- and push the P/E even higher. But the market is a forward-looking Fool. If UA sticks to its guns on promising better numbers in the second half tomorrow, the stock could recover in time to erase Caris' losses.

This analyst seems to be pulling its buy rating on UA at exactly the wrong time -- it's closing the door after the horse is out of the barn, if you will, but just before it's had a chance to really gallop.