Let's file this in the "rumors too stupid to be true" folder.
Shares of Expedia (NASDAQ:EXPE) were cleared for takeoff yesterday, soaring 9% higher. Call options activity was also heavy.
Why does everybody suddenly want a piece of the online travel portal? Reuters claims that the gains are tied to rumor-mill chatter about Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) buying Expedia. It's not the first time this story has made the rounds. I can trace it back at least a year, when a Susquehanna analyst suggested the dot-com pairing.
If you believe the gossip, I've got some really bad news for you on the sad state of the Tooth Fairy.
Don't get me wrong. The math works. Expedia's stock has been beaten down to the point where it's now trading for less than eight times this year's projected profitability. Google's multiple is at 16, so it can pay twice as much for Expedia and the deal would still be accretive (and even more so once you factor in any potential deal synergies).
However, just because it makes sense on paper doesn't mean that it makes sense in the noggin.
Finding a flight plan
Google would love to cash in on the lucrative travel market. It began spitting back flight-tracking information to search queries two years ago. However, what would Google do with Expedia?
More importantly, what would it mean to sponsors -- and potential advertisers -- like priceline.com (NASDAQ:PCLN) and Orbitz Worldwide (NYSE:OWW)? Why would they continue to advertise for leads on Google as visiting teams? Even travel-deal publishers like Travelzoo (NASDAQ:TZOO) would be left scratching their heads. Feeding Big G money that would make a rival even stronger? It wouldn't happen. They would sharply reallocate their advertising budgets, sending more lead-referral revenue to Google rivals like Yahoo! (NASDAQ:YHOO) and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT).
Can anyone really explain how this deal will ever happen?
If you're nodding your head, have a seat.
I've got news for you: The Tooth Fairy died after washing down a mouthful of Pop Rocks with a swig of Coca-Cola.
Brush your teeth and peruse these sweet reads:
- Google posted healthy fourth-quarter results earlier this year, though it can always afford to diversify.
- I Can Make You Rich in 3 Years
