Ahh, the joys of biotech. In what other industry is it possible to wake up and see the value of your stock triple from what it was the night before?
The latest beneficiary, Human Genome Sciences
Much like Vanda Pharmaceuticals
It's easy to beat yourself up over not getting in on Human Genome Sciences' run-up, but you really shouldn't. Biotech is a game of percentages where neither success nor failure is guaranteed and the return has to justify the estimated chance of success. When it comes to diseases like lupus, where it's difficult to determine the chance of success, I think it's perfectly reasonable to spend your time looking for diseases that are easier to understand.
Human Genome Sciences isn't out of the woods yet; Benlysta still has to pass its second phase 3 trial, the results of which are expected in November. The risk of failure is significantly lower because the trial design is essentially the same. Just don't expect another triple if the second trial is a success.
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