Fools can't make up their minds about Rackspace Hosting
|
Metric |
|
|---|---|
|
CAPS stars (out of 5) |
*** |
|
Total ratings |
284 |
|
Percent Bulls |
90.5% |
|
Percent Bears |
9.5% |
|
Bullish pitches |
45 out of 48 |
Data current as of Feb. 17.
Why so many fence sitters? The major concern, apparently, is that Rackspace is locked in a capex spending death spiral that will ultimately torpedo the business. Bearish investors don't differentiate between Rackspace's data center operations and those of co-locators such as Switch & Data
That's a mistake. Rackspace is the simplest way to get started with investing in cloud computing.
Get a rag, we're going under the hood
Take a look at the latest earnings report. Rackspace added just under 10,000 new customers in the fourth quarter, almost all of which were for its cloud computing services. New customers included new Comcast
Presently, cloud computing services account for just 10% of Rackspace's total revenue. The other 90% comes from managed hosting whereby customers rent and control specified servers within the company's network of more than 50,000.
By contrast, customers see none of the infrastructure their software touches when using cloud computing services. All they know is that they're consuming resources inside an amorphous "cloud" of storage and processing horsepower.
Customers like the model. Cloud-computing revenue rose 11.7% sequentially in Q4 and 93.2% over last year. Meanwhile, on-demand computing power is accounting for an increasing portion of Rackspace's overall business:
|
Metric |
Q4 2009 |
Q3 2009 |
Q2 2009 |
Q1 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
New revenue |
$7,117,000 |
$10,404,000 |
$6,918,000 |
$1,940,000 |
|
Additional servers |
2,016 |
2,386 |
2,231 |
2,520 |
|
New revenue per server |
$3,530.26 |
$4,360.44 |
$3,100.85 |
$769.84 |
|
Cloud computing as a % of revenue |
10.1% |
9.4% |
8.6% |
7.5% |
Data current as of Feb. 17.
Notice the pattern? Rackspace, which in October of 2008 acquired JungleDisk and Slicehost to remake itself into a cloud hosting business, appears to be successfully navigating the transition. High returns per server are once again the norm:
|
Metric |
Q4 2008 |
Q3 2008 |
Q2 2008 |
Q1 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
New revenue |
$4,783,000 |
$7,525,000 |
$11,216,000 |
$12,930,000 |
|
Additional servers |
2,287 |
2,807 |
2,669 |
3,063 |
|
New revenue per server |
$2,091.39 |
$2,680.79 |
$4,202.32 |
$4,221.35 |
Data current as of Feb. 17.
At the same time, the inherent efficiency of its cloud hosting business has allowed the company to earn higher returns on capital. ROC soared from 8.6% in Q3 to 10% in Q4, Rackspace said in its earnings release. Not bad for a company stuck in a bare-knuckles fight with tough competitors such as Amazon.com's
Poised to rack up gains
For its part, management expects further gains. "We are in the first inning of many, probably a double-header," explained Rackspace Chief Financial Officer Bruce Knooihuizen in an interview. "We believe every customer has a need that fits the cloud."
Color me unsurprised. Rackspace has good reason to make its cloud offering as appealing as possible; it controls the boxes. Thus, each cloud server can be stuffed to its revenue-generating capacity. (Think of an apartment building with no vacancies.) This also explains the company's increasing returns on capital.
"We think there will be huge opportunity for us, given the way the cloud works," Knooihuizen said. I think he's right, and it's why I'll be buying shares of this rebel when disclosure rules permit.
Would you buy shares of Rackspace at current prices? Make your voice heard using the comments box below.
