Please ensure Javascript is enabled for purposes of website accessibility

There Are Greener Pastures Than Green Mountain

By Alyce Lomax – Updated Apr 6, 2017 at 10:39PM

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Despite robust sales, the stock looks risky and expensive.

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (Nasdaq: GMCR) apparently alleviated investors' fears with its first-quarter financial results, given the stock's spike today. However, prudent investors may want to regard Green Mountain shares with a healthy fear of heights.

Green Mountain's net income fell 78%, to $2.2 million, or $0.02 per share; that figure includes costs related to its Van Houtte transaction, as well as legal and accounting-related expenses related to its recent SEC inquiry. Excluding those costs, Green Mountain's net income came in at $26.1 million.

If investors are feeling more bullish on Green Mountain, it probably owes to the company's 67% revenue increase, to $575 million, and the way it surpassed Wall Street estimates. Green Mountain's Keurig single-cup brewer and its K-Cups helped the company generate robust holiday sales.

Nonetheless, I remain leery of Green Mountain as an investment right now. It has traditionally traded at high valuations, and that's still the case. It sports a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 23, outpacing multiples paid for rivals like Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX) and Caribou (Nasdaq: CBOU), which trade at forward P/E ratios of 18 and 16, respectively.

Green Mountain's historically acquisitive nature makes its financial statements very complicated reading. Furthermore, the Van Houtte acquisition drove its debt load up to $1.09 billion, from $354.5 million in the previous quarter.

Though its super-convenient Keurig single-cup brewers are a big hit for at-home java jolts, Green Mountain still faces plenty of competition from Starbucks, Peet's (Nasdaq: PEET), and Caribou, as well as fast food giant McDonald's (NYSE: MCD), which has been excelling in peddling caffeinated beverages to price-conscious consumers.

Furthermore, commodity price inflation will be a major difficulty for many coffee purveyors going forward; Starbucks recently said that it will start passing some of its rising coffee costs on to customers. We'll have to see just how much coffee-related sticker shock caffeine fiends will bear.

There's a lot to like about Green Mountain: its sales growth, its Keurig single-cup brewers, and its environmentally positive mission. But despite today's optimism over its earnings beat and optimistic outlook, its stock remains expensive and risky.

Peet's Coffee & Tea is a Motley Fool Big Short short-sale choice. Green Mountain is a Motley Fool Rule Breakers pick. Starbucks is a Motley Fool Stock Advisor recommendation. Motley Fool Alpha has opened a short position on Green Mountain. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days.

Alyce Lomax owns shares of Starbucks. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Invest Smarter with The Motley Fool

Join Over 1 Million Premium Members Receiving…

  • New Stock Picks Each Month
  • Detailed Analysis of Companies
  • Model Portfolios
  • Live Streaming During Market Hours
  • And Much More
Get Started Now

Stocks Mentioned

Starbucks Corporation Stock Quote
Starbucks Corporation
SBUX
$84.81 (0.76%) $0.64
Keurig Green Mountain, Inc. Stock Quote
Keurig Green Mountain, Inc.
GMCR.DL
McDonald's Corporation Stock Quote
McDonald's Corporation
MCD
$243.76 (-0.89%) $-2.19

*Average returns of all recommendations since inception. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close.

Related Articles

Motley Fool Returns

Motley Fool Stock Advisor

Market-beating stocks from our award-winning analyst team.

Stock Advisor Returns
329%
 
S&P 500 Returns
106%

Calculated by average return of all stock recommendations since inception of the Stock Advisor service in February of 2002. Returns as of 09/26/2022.

Discounted offers are only available to new members. Stock Advisor list price is $199 per year.

Premium Investing Services

Invest better with The Motley Fool. Get stock recommendations, portfolio guidance, and more from The Motley Fool's premium services.