Tubemogul Insights Art

Data-driven video advertising is TubeMogul's bread and butter. Credit: TubeMogul. 

Shares of TubeMogul (NASDAQ:TUBE) jumped over 18% in late trading as investors celebrated second-quarter results that oblierated targets. Here's a closer look at the Q2 totals versus Wall Street's projections:

TUBERevenueYOY GrowthEPSYOY Growth
Consensus estimate  $39.07 million  36%  ($0.09) (325%) 
Q2 actual  $45.44 million  58.2%   $0.04  0%
DIFFERENCE  $6.37 million  22.2%  $0.13  325%

Sources: S&P Capital IQ and TubeMogul press release. 

Commenting on the results, CEO Brett Wilson said in a press release:

"Our strong Q2 results were driven by our unwavering focus on brand advertisers and the tools they need to transform their media planning, buying, and measurement. Revenue from our expansion into Programmatic TV contributed to our outperformance in Q2, and we are excited to begin offering brand advertisers cross-screen planning and buying, with TV as the centerpiece of this effort."

What went right: For those who don't know, Programmatic TV is what TubeMogul calls the process of using data to find audiences for brand advertising across both online video and a growing number of network television channels. Plug in the type of viewers you want to reach, and TubeMogul promises to do the rest. Outsized revenue growth suggests the pitch is working. A 72% year-over-year increase in  "Total Spend" -- a reflection of the aggregate dollar volume of media buying occurring on TubeMogul's platform -- also speaks well for customers' view of the experience.

What went wrong: While it's not a concern, per se, Platform Direct revenue (up 54.1%) didn't grow as fast as Platform Services revenue (up 61%). As investors, we'd rather see the reverse. The less TubeMogul depends on ad agencies -- a.k.a. "Services" clients -- the more sustainable the business.

What's next: Looking ahead, TubeMogul forecasts $94 million to $96 million in Total Spend and $39 million to $41 million in revenue during the third quarter. Wilson and his team are also targeting $26 million to $28 million in gross profit and $3 million to $5 million in losses in terms of adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. 

Analysts tracked by S&P Capital IQ have the company generating $36.55 million in revenue and $0.13 a share in losses after accounting for stock-based compensation and other noncash items. That compares with $27.42 million and a $0.03-per-share loss in last year's Q3.

Longer term, analysts have TubeMogul growing earnings by an average of 15% annually over the next three to five years. 

In the meantime, investors should pay close attention to growth in the Platform Direct business and its contribution to Total Spend. Accelerating gains in both would be good for the business and for investors.

Tim Beyers is an amazing tuber on water, not so much on snow. He's also a member of the Motley Fool Rule Breakers stock-picking team and the Motley Fool Supernova Odyssey I mission but didn't own shares in any of the companies mentioned in this article at the time of publication. Check out Tim's web home and portfolio holdings or connect with him on Google+Tumblr, or Twitter, where he goes by @milehighfool.

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