The future of Walmart's market share
Given its size, Walmart will most likely either maintain its brick-and-mortar market share going forward or see a small, manageable decline due to increased competition. It had a 20.6% share of the U.S. retail market, according to Numerator data through Sept. 30, 2024. Costco was second with 7.8%, and Kroger was third with 7.0%.
Revenue growth has been in the single digits for Walmart over the last three years: 6.0% in 2023, 5.1% in 2024, and 4.7% in 2025. Those numbers indicate a mature business that could find it harder to deliver continued growth, which is an important consideration if you plan to buy Walmart stock. In the physical retail market, Walmart is defending its position rather than expanding meaningfully.
Walmart's opportunities for significant growth are on the digital front, and that's where it's seeing the best results recently. In 2025, its global e-commerce sales grew 24% globally, and its global advertising business grew 37%. Global membership fee revenue grew 15.1%. These are all areas where Walmart could still expand its market share. E-commerce, in particular, is a market where it's still well behind Amazon. It had a 9.2% e-commerce market share in 2025 compared to Amazon's 40.5% share, according to Statista.
Since Walmart is already the second-largest company by revenue, it will likely continue to deliver modest overall growth. That could change if it makes inroads with e-commerce, but Amazon is tough to unseat there.
