Good news, wealthy Americans! Something finally went your way!
Last year, I wrote an article entitled "The Death of the American Billionaire," in which I noted that after years of American domination, the composition of Forbes' annual billionaires list had adopted a decidedly international flair -- as you can see from the table below:
Metric |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Number of Americans in Top 10 |
8 |
8 |
5 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
Number of Americans in Top 25 |
18 |
13 |
12 |
12 |
8 |
4 |
The good news
It's been a rough year for America's billionaires. Warren Buffett lost $25 billion. Microsoft
I thought you said this was GOOD news ...
Oh, it is. While the past 12 months were tough on America's billionaires, they were absolutely brutal on their international counterparts. Carlos Slim and Arcelor Mittal
As a result, America can now claim three of the world's top four billionaires (Gates, Buffett, and Oracle
Enjoy it while you can
As I indicated in last year's article, I don't think the increasing number of international billionaires in recent years was a fluke -- and I only expect that trend to continue over time. Even though most international stocks have suffered through a terrible 12-month stretch, they were still the best-performing markets over the past three- and five-year periods.
Not convinced? Check out the tables below:
Market (Country) |
1-Year Performance |
3-Year Annualized Performance |
5-Year Annualized Performance |
---|---|---|---|
IPC (Mexico) |
(33%) |
0% |
14% |
Ibovespa (Brazil) |
(38%) |
0% |
12% |
BSE Sensex (India) |
(43%) |
(6%) |
10% |
SSE Composite (China) |
(46%) |
19% |
4% |
Dax (Germany) |
(37%) |
(12%) |
1% |
Hang Seng (Hong Kong) |
(42%) |
(6%) |
0% |
S&P 500 (U.S.) |
(41%) |
(17%) |
(7%) |
*Data from Yahoo! Finance as of March 16, 2009.
Fueled by America Movil
The point is clear: If you had invested $10,000 in the S&P 500 exactly five years ago, you would have $6,518 today. If you had invested in any of the international indices listed above, you would have anywhere from $10,034 to $19,679.
That's why it's such a shame that most Americans are significantly underexposed to these international economies. There is no consensus on the average American's exposure to foreign equities, but I've seen estimates ranging between 2% and 20%. As Motley Fool Global Gains advisor Tim Hanson pointed out in a recent article, that low level of exposure leaves domestic investors tied to a vulnerable U.S. economy, and it all but ensures that they will miss out on the greatest economic growth of the next 10 to 15 years.
In fact, Tim cites PIMCO co-CEO Mohamed El-Erian, who believes that American investors should devote two-thirds of their portfolios to foreign stocks!
Past is not prologue
As you know, past performance doesn't necessarily indicate future results. But I believe the best-performing markets over the next three to five years (and beyond) will still be based abroad. Face facts: Foreign economies stand to benefit from blistering economic growth the likes of which the U.S. will never see again.
Take China, for example. UBS recently cut the country's 2009 GDP forecast ... to 6.5%. If that holds, it would be the lowest growth rate that China has posted since 1990.
Contrast that with the United States, where 2009 GDP is expected to contract by 3.1%. Since 1990, U.S. GDP has never grown by 6.5%.
That kind of powerhouse economic growth makes me believe that we'll continue to see more outperformance by foreign markets, and more of the world's billionaires cropping up abroad.
The best way to play it
If you're interested in increasing your exposure to China, India, and the rest of the world's fastest-growing economies, consider taking a free 30-day trial of our Global Gains investing service. Every month, we recommend two new international stocks, as well as our best bets for new money now. Just click here for more information.
Rich Greifner is still waiting for Forbes to release its list of the world's thousandaires. He does not own shares of any company mentioned in this article. America Movil is a Global Gains recommendation. Microsoft is an Inside Value selection. Petrobras is an Income Investor pick. The Fool has a disclosure policy.