Since the market's skin is about as thick as a silicon wafer, I'd wager that the same crowd that's been running in fear from semiconductor stocks will be the same one buying back with a flurry before long.
Sure, not all stocks in this industry have received the cold shoulder -- Advanced Micro Devices' (NYSE:AMD) strong run of late is an exception. Yet for every AMD darling there are Pepe Le Pews like Silicon Laboratories (NASDAQ:SLAB) or ARM Holdings (NASDAQ:ARMHY) looking for some love -- both of which are Motley Fool Stock Advisor selections. Even Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), the giant potato of chipsets, has tasted like stale potato chips lately.
When the mass migration of lemmings returns, the smart investor will be ready. Looking for another deal? Here is a silicon surprise that wafers but doesn't waffle: ADE (NASDAQ:ADEX).
ADE, a recent selection on the Hidden Gems Watch List, manufactures important products used in rapid precision measurements of silicon wafers. Hidden Gems readers might get excited at the sound of "precision measurements," which brings to mind one of our all-time favorite stocks, FARO Technologies (NASDAQ:FARO), and its highly successful FARO Gage.
And much like FARO, ADE is experiencing high-speed growth. For the second quarter of fiscal 2005, the company raked in revenues of $29.3 million, a 45% increase over the $20.2 million from the same period a year ago. Not to be outdone, its net income came in at $6.3 million -- not huge, but a stunning 270% increase year over year. In addition, its gross margins climbed to 54%, up from 49% in the second quarter of 2004.
The company also sports a sterling balance sheet with $50.2 million in cash and a mere $3.5 million in long-term debt. Blended with its just-under-$250 million market cap, these stats give ADE an enterprise value (EV) of $193.3 million.
The company's current cash flow statement is not yet accessible; to value the company, we'll be working off its past 10-Qs. Going through its 2004 10-Qs, we find a strong and steady consistency in its structural free cash flow (SFCF) from one quarter to the next. Inspired by the SFCF consistency in 2004 and early 2005, I'm taking ADE's first-quarter 2005 SFCF of $5.5 million and multiplying by four to estimate a ballpark run rate of $22 million in SFCF for the year. The market cap is a fairly modest 11.2 times that.
ADE, like many others in the semiconductor industry, is having difficulty projecting growth for the next couple of quarters. Even if we tamp its estimated run rate of SFCF down to $16.5 million, the company is still valued at a seductive market cap/SFCF (similar to price to earnings, except that earnings have net capital expenditures removed) of 15. Write this stock down on your watch list, and if the next couple of quarters do indeed end up weak, consider snatching up this bargain at rock-bottom levels.
Fool contributor Jeremy MacNealy owns shares in FARO, but not of any of the other companies mentioned.
