As 2004 winds to a close, I thought it would be appropriate to review some of the articles I've written and share some lessons learned -- both good and bad -- with the Foolish community.
I have written about 60 articles since I began contributing to the Fool in May. With that many pieces, it's unlikely I could be correct every time. In every article, though, I tried to share the process that led me to my conclusion.
I'll highlight some of my highs and lows.
Where I went wrong
The worst call I made this year has to be a negative article I wrote July 15 on Qlogic
Another stinker was a positive article I wrote June 4 on Idexx Labs
On June 17, I made a wrong call about Gemstar TV Guide
I also made some good calls about stocks to avoid.
Where I went right
I wrote negatively about Pfizer
I could write almost the same paragraph about American International Group
Some of the stocks I liked have gone up considerably.
On June 9 I wrote about a small steel company named Quanex
Mine Safety
One last stock I'll mention is Taser International
The broader horizon
What I have enjoyed the most about writing for The Motley Fool has been the chance to share the process I use to put together a portfolio, and how to use different types of tools to try to get the same return with less volatility.
One way to smooth out volatility is by owning foreign stocks. In 2004 I wrote 12 articles about international investing. I believe foreign exposure will become more and more important in the next few years. Foreign stocks are generally cheaper with respect to their underlying businesses, and often come with higher dividends. And there are compelling arguments for investment capital to flow from the U.S. to other countries, including: weakness in the dollar, demand for commodities from countries such as Australia and Canada, money flowing into Chinese trade partners, and the potential for the Euro to share the role of world reserve currency with the U.S. dollar.
I've also sorted through new investment products, trying to sniff out the useful from the useless. There are going to be a lot of new ETFs and closed-end funds coming out that will try to capture certain areas of capital markets. It will be very worthwhile for all of us to learn about these products as they emerge, because some of them will make excellent and innovative investments.
To close, I will add that what I have tried to provide this year is a simple way to start the process of choosing what to buy for your account. The concept of supply and demand has played into almost every article I have ever written. If I can't understand how demand will drive the business, I don't even try to pick apart the numbers. I may have missed some upside opportunity because of that, but, on the whole, that lesson has served me so well that I hope I never unlearn it.
Investing can be as simple or as complex as you want to make it. I try to make it as simple as I can. Sometimes that works, sometimes it doesn't, but the only way to improve is to look back and learn.
Fool contributor Roger Nusbaum is an investment manager and wildland firefighter in Prescott, Ariz. At press time, neither he nor his clients owned any of the stocks mentioned.