Repeat after me: "The trend is your friend."
In this case, I'm talking about the demographic trends that have Grupo Televisa (NYSE:TV), the world's largest Spanish-language media company, sitting in the proverbial catbird seat.
I know, I know . just the word "demographic" is enough to make your eyes glaze over. Bear with me for a second before the need for a nap becomes overpowering.
Consider this: According to the Population Reference Bureau's 2005 World Population Data Sheet (that's a mouthful, eh?), the population of Latin America is expected to grow 44% in the next 45 years, from 559 million in 2005 to more than 805 million in 2050. In comparison, Western Europe's population is actually expected to fall 2% over the same period.
Likewise, the U.S. population is expected to grow some 42% over the period (to 420 million) with its Hispanic population more than doubling to 105 million, or 25% of the total.
There's no reliable estimate for purchasing power that far out. But the U.S. Census Bureau has predicted that consumer spending by people of Hispanic descent would hit $1 trillion in 2010. That's up nearly 61% from the $622 billion spent in 2003, and well in excess of the overall increase in U.S. consumer spending.
Simply put, the world's Spanish-speaking population is growing faster than much of the rest of world and has an increasing share of the world's disposable income. Think that doesn't have advertisers licking their chops?
Grupo Televisa, Latin America's answer to News Corp (NYSE:NWS), offers those advertisers a smorgasbord of opportunities. The media behemoth not only operates in all the traditional media segments -- TV broadcasting, programming exports, satellite, cable, publishing, radio, Internet, etc. -- but is also the leading player in most of them.
Take its TV operations in Mexico. In the most recent quarter ended June 30, Grupo Televisa's four networks and their affiliates grabbed close to a whopping 70% audience share. Likewise, the publishing division publishes and distributes more than 60 magazines in 20 countries worldwide and has a circulation of more than 127 million. That's a roughly 45% share of the market.
Lest we forget, Grupo Televisa also has a huge library of programs available for licensing -- more than 90,000 hours' worth by last count. In addition to supplying content to Univision (NYSE:UVN), its licensing partner in the U.S. (which earned Grupo more than $100 million in royalty revenue last year), it also licensed more than 55,000 hours of programming worldwide. For those watchers of hidden value, look no further than the 10.7% stake that Grupo Televisa holds in Univision, which is worth a mere $882 million. Get the picture?
No wonder that shares of the company are up almost 20% this year, handily beating the 10% average decline posted by media stalwarts like Motley Fool Stock Advisor pick Time Warner (NYSE:TWX) and Viacom (NYSE:VIAb).
Yet despite this run-up, Grupo Televisa shares still trade at a discount to such peers. At a recent price of $70 per share, the company's stock trades at 17 times fiscal 2006 earnings of $4.24 -- pretty much in line with its expected annual growth rate over the next five years. In contrast, Time Warner and Viacom trade at forward P/Es that are 78% and 11% above their expected long-term growth rates, despite having slower growth and relatively easier entrance to their markets.
For a premium play in a fast-growing market, Foolish investors may want to consider screening Grupo Televisa for their portfolios.
Will Frankenhoff owns no shares of any company mentioned in this article. He remains an excited new Fool and welcomes opinions and criticisms (be gentle!).
