Is there a more reliable pattern out there than that for new restaurant concepts? Whether it's Red Robin Gourmet Burgers
Once the dust settles, though, you can usually suss out the winners and losers. Concepts don't keep people coming through the door, but good food at good prices will. While Red Robin may be in the midst of that seemingly inevitable restaurant stock-correction cycle, I still think it has what it takes to last.
Looking at results for the quarter, the picture seems a bit mixed to me. Revenue was up nearly 21%, with comps growth of 4.8% at company-owned units and 3.9% growth at U.S. franchisees. I'm pleased that higher traffic supplied the majority of that first number. Given my skepticism about how much you can raise menu prices in the current environment, larger crowds of hungry diners represent the right way for restaurants to grow today.
I was less enamored with the profitability side of things. True, the company's self-reported "restaurant-level operating profit" was up 18%, but ordinary operating income was up just about 7% on an operating basis. That's not all that uncommon in my experience with the restaurant cycle; operators tend to ratchet up spending to keep pace with underlying business growth.
I generally don't care much about how well company guidance and performance conform to analyst estimates, but I certainly realize that those factors move stocks in the short term. Consequently, I would expect Red Robin's somewhat sluggish guidance to lead to some near-term weakness.
In the longer term, though, I think this franchise has a better-than-average chance of continuing to produce profitable growth. The menu isn't as diverse as that of Applebee's
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Fool contributor Stephen Simpson has no financial interest in any stocks mentioned (that means he's neither long nor short the shares).