Lennar
While the company didn't provide the number of cancellations it experienced in the fourth quarter, one can infer it was not good, as it had to quadruple the value of the incentives offered to buyers. At the same time, it lowered the price of the houses to $302,000, a drop of more than 10% from last year.
In reality, home prices have been dropping all year long as Lennar struggled to maintain sales. Where homebuilders like Ryland
Average Selling Price (In Thousands)
2006 |
2005 |
|
---|---|---|
Q1 |
$326 |
$292 |
Q2 |
$322 |
$293 |
Q3 |
$316 |
$306 |
Q4 |
$302 |
$338 |
So although it was able to claim -- at least up to the current quarter -- that its home prices were well above last year's prices, it was actually cutting them progressively throughout the year.
And while it may look like Lennar was able to increase the number of homes throughout the year, and even year-over-year (till this quarter again anyway), the third and fourth quarters tend to be strongest for homebuilders because of the seasonality of their business. More homes tend to close later in the year than earlier. You'll see the true picture of what to expect if you look at the decline in new orders. They have been falling year over year since the second quarter and really dropped off the table this time.
Home Deliveries
2006 |
2005 |
|
---|---|---|
Q1 |
8,904 |
7,557 |
Q2 |
12,506 |
8,951 |
Q3 |
13,038 |
10,937 |
Q4 |
13,285 |
13,851 |
New Orders
2006 |
2005 |
|
---|---|---|
Q1 |
9,793 |
9,460 |
Q2 |
11,757 |
12,095 |
Q3 |
11,056 |
11,614 |
Q4 |
9,606 |
10,236 |
Homebuilding is a cyclical industry and it's to be expected that after years of go-go growth we would finally experience a slowdown. While homebuyers can enjoy the slight respite from the spiraling price of houses, it's quite possible we're going to see tangential repercussions of this effect throughout the entire industry. With home values not rising as they had in the past, coupled with creative financing strategies that allowed homebuyers to get into these houses in the first place, it's likely there will be a wave of foreclosures that will further suppress housing prices and ripple out to the mortgage holders themselves.
Homebuilders are already writing down massive amounts of inventory to reflect the new pricing structure in place. Hovnanian
Lennar is just the first shoe to drop this year for the builders:
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Fool contributor Rich Duprey does not own any of the stocks mentioned in this article. You can see his holdings here. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.