"The idea of buying a former superstar stock at a discount price certainly has its attractions, but you've got to make sure you catch the haft -- not the blade."
So goes the thesis of my weekly Fool.com column "Get Ready for the Bounce." Therein, I run the 52-week-lows list compiled by Nasdaq.com through the "wisdom of crowds" meter that we call Motley Fool CAPS. And out the other end comes a list of stocks that have fallen so far that Foolish investors figure they're just bound to bounce back soon.
But is there a way to cash in on fallen angels who've plummeted even further? Perhaps. If a stock that's fallen for one year straight has headroom, then maybe a stock that's fallen even farther, and longer, has room to soar back even higher -- in which case, an apparently left-for-dead stock could offer us a drop-dead gorgeous entry price. We're going to test that thesis today, starting with four stocks that just hit their 5-year lows:
|
Stock |
Recent Price |
CAPS Rating (out of 5) |
|---|---|---|
|
Integral Systems |
$6.63 |
**** |
|
Eagle Rock Energy Partners |
$3.66 |
**** |
|
Deutsche Telekom |
$11.02 |
*** |
|
S&T Bancorp |
$17.26 |
* |
Companies are selected from the "New 5-Year Lows" list published on MSN Money on Friday. CAPS ratings from Motley Fool CAPS.
Left for dead? Or drop-dead gorgeous?
Each of the stocks listed above has shed between 39% and 79% of its value over the past year alone, and currently sits at or near its five-year low. Wall Street has left 'em for dead, but Main Street investors aren't so sure.
In fact, we think two of these firms may have fallen too far -- giving us two fine opportunities to profit from a rebound. Which one looks like the better deal? Well, more Fools are recommending Integral Systems than Eagle Rock Energy -- so let's take a gander at...
The bull case for Integral Systems
A producer of satellite ground systems, Integral just may be the biggest aerospace company you've never heard of. The company does work for most of the majors -- Boeing
- CAPS All-Star TheBarnacle believes the stock has an: "Intrinsic value of 16.08 with great debt sheet," while All-Star RedScourge pronounces himself: "a big fan of satellite systems."
- And tenmiles, who boasts a perfect 100 CAPS rating, applauded the company last year for being "[d]ebt free, trading around 13x reduced forward guidance."
Of course, no one but the shorts was applauding last week, when Integral issued an earnings warning that cut this year's earnings expectations in half. Although management left revenue guidance more or less unscathed, it blamed "recent schedule delays on several large government contracts, the loss or cancellation of three government programs within the past two weeks, and continued weakness in the aerospace market." It expects this year's likely earnings to be just $0.45 per share (from previous $1.01 guidance).
So is all hope lost? I mean, "delays" are all well and good. If accurately described, such revenue will eventually come home to mama. But three canceled projects in two weeks sounds just awful -- and the news sparked a 20% sell-off in the stock on Thursday.
Still, now that the damage is done, we're looking at a stock priced at less than 15 times the now-reduced earnings guidance. A company that has generated free cash flow in five of the last six years. A stock that may live up to Wall Street expectations of 20% annualized five-year growth, which would seem to suggest a bargain price. (Or not -- after all, there's only one analyst covering Integral, so we're stretching the definition of "consensus estimates" pretty far here.)
Time to chime in
Personally, I'm not as convinced as some of my CAPS peers appear to be about Integral's worth. While the company has a solid balance sheet -- "debt free" as tenmiles points out -- it's not generating new cash flow at quite the level I'd like to see, relative to reported profit. To me, there are better prospects out there than Integral. I'd suggest we let this one drop dead, and stay dead.
But hey -- that's just my opinion. What's yours?
