Did you hear something? I'm no entomologist, but I swear that was the sound of crickets coming from lower Manhattan.
According to a recent FactSet Research Systems study featured in The Wall Street Journal, there were about 2,200 cases of Wall Street analysts formally dropping company coverage from last September to mid-May. That represents about a 25% drop in overall research for the period -- just another example of continued fallout from the economic crisis.
You might think that's great. It means fewer inane seven-part questions on conference calls, more reasonable growth estimates, and a longer-term mind-set for the markets.
That may all be true, but as individual investors, our relationship with these analysts is actually a lot more important than we may care to admit.
See, analysts provide classes of investors with critical company information, stoke interest in a wide range of stocks, and consequently make the markets more liquid.
That liquidity means increased trading, which tightens securities' bid-ask spreads, which in turn makes it easier to buy and sell stocks without drastically affecting the price. That's crucial -- especially when it comes to small caps.
Smaller companies generally have less analyst coverage to begin with, but they're losing even more this year. According to the FactSet study, in the first five months of 2009, a whopping 25.7% of small-cap companies announced an instance of dropped analyst coverage. In 2007, that figure stood at just 6.4%.
By contrast, larger companies have reported a 15.5% dropped coverage rate so far this year, but many still enjoy sufficient coverage from Wall Street. In February, for instance, Wachovia (which has since been acquired by Wells Fargo
What's more, the lack of information in the market makes it more costly for small caps to raise public money. This was the topic of a 2007 study, which demonstrated that companies without analyst coverage have substantially higher costs of equity. (That's the minimum return that equity holders demand from their investment.)
The more capital costs a company has, the greater the risks it will need to take to satisfy its investors -- which can lead to more volatile results.
What this means for you
Still, there have always been some advantages to a lack of Wall Street coverage. Individual investors can beat the big boys to the punch on underfollowed stocks, especially in the small-cap arena.
As an individual investor, you have a much better chance, for instance, of identifying an information advantage on a smaller, less-followed chip maker like Atheros Communications
This advantage still holds true, of course, but the further decline in analyst coverage means it could take even longer for the big money to recognize a small company's success story.
Just a little patience
When it comes to small-cap holdings, then, we as individual investors would be wise to remain patient, because the market can't ignore these stocks forever, especially those that are:
- Financially strong
- Dominant in their market niche
If those five criteria seem like a killer combination, they are. They are also the same qualities that Home Depot and Wal-Mart possessed early on. And those are some of the best stocks of our generation.
That's why co-advisors Seth Jayson and Andy Cross use these very criteria to pick out stocks for Motley Fool Hidden Gems subscribers. After all, it stands to reason that the best stocks of the next 10 years will also possess these traits.
One stock the team feels fits the profile is Brink's Home Security Holdings, provider of home security systems (recently rebranded as Broadview Security) to more than 1.3 million customers. The recent spinoff from The Brink's Co. only has eight analysts following it, but it has a strong balance sheet, positive free cash flow, and a high level of recurring revenue.
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This article was originally published on July 16, 2009. It has been updated.
Fool analyst Todd Wenning hopes you are enjoying the autumn. He owns shares of Home Depot and Procter & Gamble. Home Depot and Wal-Mart are Motley Fool Inside Value picks. Procter & Gamble is a Motley Fool Income Investor recommendation. Atheros Communications is a Motley Fool Hidden Gems pick. The Fool owns shares of Atheros Communications, Brink's Home Security Holdings, and Procter & Gamble and has one wicked disclosure policy.