I have a theory about drug pipelines, and it is a similar theory to the famous quip about Hollywood: No one knows anything.
Just in the same way that Hollywood seems to be fairly poor at allocating capital -- for every low-budget Blair Witch Project, there is some high-cost bomb like The Alamo -- it seems that punters have little real insight into what drugs are actually going to be home runs or not. Case in point are Pfizer's recent releases, Inspra and Caduet, which have generated at this point substantially less revenue than anticipated.
I remember quite well how lauded Bristol Myers'
Let me just say this: As badly as Pfizer
Diabetes treatment is a wide-open market. An estimated 180 million people currently suffer from diabetes worldwide, and that number continues to rise. According to the press release, more than half of all diabetes patients remain poorly treated. A drug that can be taken in dry powder form, thus making it substantially more convenient than the current subcutaneous insulin administration, seems like a home run.
Of course, there is plenty of time and work between an application's being accepted and actual revenues from an approved drug. And its approval, given the long study time already taken to date, may already be figured into the company's share price.
Looking at Pfizer's current multiples, though, I'm not sure where that would be.