The Energizer bunny was running in high gear yesterday. Energizer Holdings (NYSE:ENR) closed $3.09 higher -- a 6.5% jump -- to $53.42 on a Prudential analyst's upgrade from negative to neutral. Is there value in these neutrally ranked shares?
In the fourth quarter, ending Sept. 30, Energizer's North American battery sales fell 3.4%, and operating profits declined by 18.2% year over year. Since North American battery sales composed 40.4% of the quarter's total sales, that lackluster performance helped drive overall profits down by 11.6%.
North American battery sales weren't too strong for Energizer's peers, either. Rayovac producer Spectrum Brands (NYSE:SPC) saw sales and earnings declines. Market kingpin Duracell, owned by Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG), grew its market share by 2.3 percentage points, to 47.9%, but sales and profits still fell slightly.
Energizer's hot products were the Quattro Power and Quattro Energy men's shaving systems, which launched in mid-September in the U.S. and Japan, respectively. They helped overall razor and blade sales realize a 16% gain. But, without a full pipeline for these products, razor and blade sales increased only 2%.
The holidays are Energizer's peak season. But this quarter, sales are only expected to increase 1.5%, and per-share profits are expected to decline by a penny to $1.61 a share year over year. For the fiscal year, analysts expect per-share income to increase 2.1% -- far below their predicted five-year annual growth of 9%, and well below the 32.8% growth Energizer has realized over the last five years.
At 13.7 times trailing earnings, is Energizer in bargain territory? I wouldn't bet the farm on it.
On the plus side, the battery business provides a strong, stable cash flow. Furthermore, Energizer is well positioned with its marketing and its products (which includes lithium rechargeable batteries). With more and more battery-powered gizmos entering the market, the battery business should continue to grow profitably, if slowly. A rise in premium-priced battery sales could signal faster-than-expected improvement in the company's fortunes.
Blades and razors are the wild card. While the new Quattro lines for men and women offer the opportunity for operating margin expansion (which, at 10.7%, is far behind the 17.3% earned on batteries), they'll probably have to compete with strong promotional pricing from market-share leader Gillette, another Procter & Gamble subsidiary. I'd suggest that prospective investors keep a close eye on Energizer's market share; consistent, consecutive quarterly upticks may signal that the sleepy Schick-Wilkinson line, acquired from Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) in 2003, is finally benefiting from Energizer's strong investments.
Energizer has great consumer brands but a rather lackluster growth outlook. Until the company whittles down its $1.1 billion in net debt, decides to pay dividends instead of repurchasing shares, or increases earnings more quickly, it will likely remain no better than an average performer.
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Fool contributor W.D. Crotty does not own any shares in the companies mentioned. Click here to see The Motley Fool's disclosure policy.
