I'm not sure what it is about turnarounds that I find so appealing. But whatever the reason, I do spend a lot of time on them. And while I haven't followed every single wiggle and waggle of same-store-sales numbers, Pier 1 Imports (NYSE:PIR) is a turnaround story that I've been following closer than most.
If you just look at fourth-quarter results, you probably don't see the "turnaround" in this turnaround story just yet. Reported sales were up a little less than 1%, but comps were once again down -- nearly 3% this time. Margins continue to erode -- gross margins fell 510 basis points this quarter -- and the company reversed a year-ago operating profit into a loss. Likewise on the bottom line -- a net profit a year ago turned to a loss this year.
And let's not forget, this quarter is the Christmas quarter -- a time when many retailers expect to make a lot of money.
The March comps make it clear that there's still more work to do. While full-month comps were down about 2%, management reported that they were down 10% after the first week of March. That's not good.
I'm also still a little jittery about management's chatter about marketing, including the pronouncement that catalogs could become a "major sales driver." Now, it's not that I don't believe in catalogs. They've been great for Williams-Sonoma (NYSE:WSM) and IKEA. It's just that marketing is tantamount to putting lipstick on a pig if you don't seriously improve the underlying merchandise -- and the jury is still out on that one.
Even though I pride myself on playing a solitary hand and generally ignoring outside opinion, I admit that I listened a bit too much to the negativity around Pier 1 when it was trading back at $9. I thought then that the stock was worth around $12 to $13, and lo and behold, that's where it's at today. So I was right about the stock and still made no money on it. In other words, big deal.
If management can get the merchandising issue squared away, and that's still a somewhat big "if" in my book, there's plenty of room to go up from here. Rest assured, fellow Fools, I'll be watching, and I'd advise you turnaround and value hounds to do the same. Maybe it's not a great buy today, but we all know that fortunes change quickly in the retail trade.
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Fool contributor Stephen Simpson has no financial interest in any stocks mentioned (that means he's neither long nor short the shares).
