OK, I think this whole early cycle-midcycle-late cycle stuff is a bunch of econo-babble. And whether or not primarily industrial conglomerate Illinois Tool Works (NYSE:ITW) is a classic late-cycle play or not, it's doing a fantastic job of raking in the chips during this upswing in its business and markets.
Revenue for the first quarter was up 8%, though currency had a negative impact in excess of 2%. Looking at organic growth (sometimes also called "core" or "base," depending on the company), Illinois Tool Works certainly stands up with the likes of Danaher (NYSE:DHR), Eaton (NYSE:ETN), 3M (NYSE:MMM), and so on.
The revenue performance is all well and good, but it's further down the financial statements where I get interested. Operating margins expanded again (fueling an 18% rise in operating income), and the company reported a return on invested capital in excess of 17%. Even allowing for differences in how you or I may calculate that number, it's still safe to say that this is a company doing quite well for itself today.
And what's interesting is that Illinois Tool Works is doing this from a slightly disadvantaged position. Non-residential construction is just starting to pick up, the domestic auto market is nothing special, and Europe is something of a mixed bag these days. Factor that in and you might have a case for a somewhat prolonged upswing here for this company (and its peers or competitors).
The downside here for me is that the market is fully up to speed on all of this. Yeah, this company's not overvalued yet, but it's also not exactly a diamond in the rough, either. Of course, there aren't a lot of large, cheap, quality industrial names left out there -- 3M still looks interesting and Tyco (NYSE:TYC) isn't expensive, but I'm not sure it meets that "quality" criterion.
In the meantime, though, I'd certainly not be in any hurry to sell Illinois Tool Works shares if I already owned them. This is the golden part of the cycle, and I for one am not about to predict when it's going to end. In the meantime, you've got a conservatively run business posting improving results and still with a pipeline of potential company-improving deals to be done.
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Fool contributor Stephen Simpson owns shares of 3M but has no financial interest in any other stocks mentioned (that means he's neither long nor short the shares).
