Brand management is a tricky thing in retail. Oh what, you don't believe me? OK, consider the following -- Members Only, Ocean Pacific, LA Gear. I could go on, but I think I've made my point. Enduring brand-based companies -- be they Liz Claiborne (NYSE:LIZ), Polo Ralph Lauren (NYSE:RL), Estee Lauder (NYSE:EL), or Phillips-Van Heusen's (NYSE:PVH) Calvin Klein, IZOD, and Arrow -- are not fait accompli. But when you can find them (and they're run for shareholders and not the greater egomaniacal glory of the founding family), boy can they produce some cash flow.
Of course, that's a long-term idea and Wall Street is all about the short term. And so while I'm not completely sure what bothered the Street about Phillips-Van Heusen's quarter, the stock is nevertheless down a fair bit. Then again, these aren't great days for anyone with retail consumer exposure, so maybe it's just a shoot-first-buy-later sort of market reaction.
Overall, I think it was a solid performance. Sales were up 7% overall, as wholesale/retail merchandise sales rose over 7%, thanks in part to a double-digit increase in wholesale sportswear sales. While there weren't a lot of specifics, management did offer tidbits like the fact that CK-branded clothing was selling well at Federated (NYSE:FD) and that it was doing more men's dress shirt business at Kohl's (NYSE:KSS).
Clearly something was working. Witness the 62% operating income growth in the merchandise business and the 50% overall operating income growth. Better still, this was achieved despite a less than stellar performance from Warnaco (NASDAQ:WRNC), a major licensee focusing on wares like CK jeans and underwear.
Just for laughs and giggles, I chopped down my growth estimates and bumped up my discount rate on Phillips-Van Heusen stock -- just to see what would happen. Using a growth estimate of 12% for the next five years (and cutting that by a third for years 6-10 and 10-20) and a discount rate of 12%, I come up with a stock that's worth almost exactly what it's trading for right now. And for those playing at home, your results might vary (since I do adjust my cash flow numbers for certain accounting items).
The point, though, is that a prolonged slump in the retailing sector is going to uncover some bargains -- and PVH may just end up being one of them. I don't like playing chicken with freight trains, so I'm not going to step up today, but this one will stay on the watch list.
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Fool contributor Stephen Simpson has no financial interest in any stocks mentioned (that means he's neither long nor short the shares).
