The last couple of weeks haven't been much fun for investors, particularly for those with their money in once-hot sectors like heavy equipment. While JLG (NYSE:JLG) wasn't alone in taking a pasting, this company suffered a fair bit more than other machinery-related plays like Manitowoc (NYSE:MTW), Terex (NYSE:TEX), or Parker-Hannifin (NYSE:PH). What remains to be seen, though, is whether this drop has set the stage for a second run in these names.
The trailing business fundamentals at JLG are still strong. Revenue was up 25% this past quarter, and up 30% if you exclude the excavator business (since disposed of) from both periods. Operating margins once again expanded as operating income rose 37%, though incremental margins weren't quite as strong.
And while today's business looks strong, tomorrow's isn't looking bad, either. The order book rose about 39% from last year's level to more than $900 million, and when you consider the reports from companies such as Perini (NYSE:PCR) and Fluor (NYSE:FLR), the market for nonresidential construction seems pretty solid for the next couple of years.
Also don't forget that later this year, the company will begin selling products under its agreement with Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT). Shipments will first go out to Europe around August, with the U.S. following a few months later. I don't expect this to be a tremendous company-changing event, but the incremental revenue, profits, and cash flow are not bad things.
The recent sell-off has created some interesting opportunities across the entire market. In some cases, it was the first reminder to investors that some of these stocks actually can succumb to gravity and go down for a few days in a row. It also suddenly appears that investors are finally realizing that rising interest rates might actually slow down economic activity. A novel concept, I know.
So what does that all mean for JLG? I think it's pretty clear that JLG has been selling a lot of products to rental customers rebuilding their fleets ahead of the expected upswing in nonresidential building. That means we're not in the early days of the cycle. By the same token, order levels around the sector are looking all right. JLG might be worth a look as a rebound play as a result of ongoing strength in construction, but I wouldn't make a lasting commitment at this point in the cycle.
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Fool contributor Stephen Simpson has no financial interest in any stocks mentioned (that means he's neither long nor short the shares).
