Technology analysts are telling their clients that Micron
Rumors of this deal have been bouncing around the Web for weeks, but now investors are taking them seriously. Doug Freedman of American Technology Research sees manufacturing synergies as Micron's customer base overlaps with Qimonda's in a geographical sense, but the German minnow is in such financial trouble that the final buyout price could be as low as $1 a share. That's less than half of last night's closing price, and Qimonda's stock is drifting downward today.
Gregory Wong of Forward Insights thinks a more limited deal is in the works. Infineon Technologies
Whether it goes for a full buyout or a simple controlling stake, a Qimonda deal makes sense for Micron. The fragmentation in the current memory-chip market has led to price wars among scores of competitors. Since nobody wants to back down, chip prices have been in freefall for a couple of years. AMD
In the long run, consolidation could boil the memory market down to just a couple of large suppliers with the power to put an end to the bloodbath. And believe me, they all want this. Micron's market cap is about a mere quarter of what it was two years ago, and that's still better than Qimonda's share price implosion of more than 80%. I don't care whether Freedman or Wong is more right, as long as one of them hits the mark -- for the sake of memory-maker investors in general.
Fool contributor Anders Bylund is an AMD shareholder but holds no other position in any of the companies discussed here. You can check out Anders' holdings if you like, and Foolish disclosure likes analysts who make sense.