"Don't catch a falling knife," as the old saw commands. (Pardon my mixing a cutlery metaphor.) The idea of buying a former superstar stock at a discount price certainly has its attractions, but you have to make sure you catch the haft -- not the blade. That's where Motley Fool CAPS comes in.
Today, we once again stand beneath Mr. Market's silverware drawer, to measure which knives have fallen the farthest. Then we'll call on CAPS to ask which of these stocks -- if any -- Foolish investors believe are ready for a rebound. Let's meet today's list of NYSE contenders, drawn from the latest "New 52-Week Lows" list on WSJ.com:
Stock |
52-Week High |
Recent Price |
CAPS Rating (5 Max): |
---|---|---|---|
NYSE Euronext |
$95.25 |
$25.86 |
***** |
MasterCard |
$320.30 |
$151.71 |
*** |
UPS |
$76.88 |
$51.70 |
*** |
Time Warner |
$19.12 |
$9.19 |
*** |
Newmont Mining |
$57.55 |
$29.23 |
*** |
Companies are selected from the "New 52-Week Lows" list published on WSJ.com on the Saturday following close of trading last week. Recent price and 52-week high provided by Yahoo! Finance. CAPS ratings from Motley Fool CAPS.
Knives and knaves
By the close of trading Friday, 619 Nasdaq-listed stocks had touched 52-week lows. That's one stock out of every five. Meanwhile, over on the NYSE, we crossed the hundred-dozen mark. Nearly half of the stocks on the Big Board -- more than 1,200 of 'em -- slumped to new-year lows.
Is the sky falling? Perhaps. But while the rest of Wall Street is slouching toward Gomorrah, yours Fool-y is practically skipping with glee. Not since the dog days of the Great Bubble Burst have I seen so many superior stocks selling for such incredibly attractive prices.
Calling this market a "turkey shoot" gives too much credit to turkeys. You can't throw a brick without hitting a bargain today. That's why I've taken what was once a "one-size-fits-all" column and turned it into three today. I'm shouting out the bargains on the AMEX, the Nazz, and the NYSE separately -- because there are just too many cheap stocks to fit 'em all into one article.
Speaking of which, time's a-wastin'. As it turns out, the highest-rated, most-pummeled stock on the NYSE ... is the NYSE itself. Need convincing? Then allow me to present to you ...
The bull case for NYSE Euronext
A name as storied as "the NYSE" is bound to attract a lot of attention, on CAPS as elsewhere. After all, this is the place big-companies such as Exxon Mobil
But the bull thesis on this one is so simple, a newbie can explain it as well as any vet. So today, let's give the CAPS All-Star team a rest and allow a few of our newer members a chance to say their piece -- starting with gonzo88. This participant may be a newbie on CAPS, but gonzo88 sums up the bull thesis for this company admirably:
This stock is the heart of the trading system that has been used over the last 90 years plus. In addition it is in the process of updating and integrating systems that are state of the art and what the new age wants and expects. I expect that the new and the old will [successfully] cooperate and this entity will flourish.
JGBFool keeps the bull case even simpler: "Seems ridiculously cheap for a stock which is in no real danger long-term."
How ridiculous, exactly? As FGunawan pointed out in early August: "The recent selloff on [NYSE Euronext] provided an unparalleled opportunity to own a piece of the stock exchange we all use. With an estimated forward P/E of 13, this is an easy call to make."
I couldn't agree more -- except to point out that the sell-off is making NYSE Euronext cheaper and cheaper with each passing day. For example, FGunawan chimed in just two months ago, and already, the stock's been chopped nearly in half, such that the price-to-earnings ratio now sits at 8.
Yes, I said "8." And that's for a stock with a moat so deep you can't see the bottom, and so wide you can't glimpse the other side. And it's for a company that's expected to grow faster than 20% per year over the next five years. Amazing.
Sure, NYSE doesn't generate as much free cash flow as it reports as net income (yet). Even so, the price-to-free cash flow ratio on this one works out to just over 11, and when measured against the growth rate, the valuation on this one still screams, "Bargain!"
Time to chime in
Of course, the aim of this column isn't just to tell you what I think about NYSE Euronext -- or even what other CAPS players are saying. We really want to hear your thoughts. Love it or hate it, click on over to Motley Fool CAPS and tell us why.
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