By the end of last week, shares of Chesapeake Energy
To convince investors that the latter course is the only likely one, Chesapeake held a conference call on Monday to update everyone on several fronts.
First, the company cut capital spending for the fourth time in as many months. Nearly $10 billion has now been pulled out of Chesapeake's combined 2009 and 2010 budgets since the end of July. That's about a 58% decline -- significantly deepening the cautionary cut back in September.
Chesapeake's new budget means that it's finally living within 2009 and 2010 cash flow, regardless of whether future asset sales happen. To someone like Apache
This is a source of real relief for investors. Another is that Chesapeake has dialed back on some potentially dilutive share issuances.
The company says it filed a series of shelf registrations with the SEC (a precursor to future stock sales) to maximize flexibility, and with no specific intention to issue shares for cash in the near term. Investors saw as much as 17% share dilution, however, and severely punished the stock. CEO Aubrey McClendon called these filings a mistake, apologized, and asked for forgiveness. As if the man's margin call weren't humbling enough!
Apologies aside, McClendon remains an apologist -- in the Socratic sense -- for the Chesapeake machine. It is hard not to find his arguments compelling. Through joint-venture agreements with BP
Combined with the company's ample commodity hedges, I think we can easily dismiss the rumors of Chesapeake's pending demise. A multibagger, "mother of all recoveries" -- to borrow McClendon's phrase -- is far more likely.