Pfizer
What analysts say:
- Buy, sell, or waffle? With 12 buys and five holds, more analysts believe that Pfizer is a steal at these beaten-down levels
- Revenue. Like many companies with a global presence, the stronger dollar will affect year-over-year comparisons; analysts expect a 6.6% decrease in revenue compared to the year-ago quarter.
- Earnings. The bottom line isn't expected to fare much better, with the average analyst expecting earnings to come in at $0.48 per share, down from an adjusted $0.55 per share last year.
What management says:
The mantra at Pfizer seems to be that emerging markets are the new Lipitor. The company has a goal of adding $3 billion in annual emerging-market sales by 2012, joining GlaxoSmithKline
What management does:
Pfizer's year-over-year comparisons have become relevant again, now that they no longer include the consumer health-care business it sold to Johnson & Johnson
12/2007 |
3/2008 |
6/2008 |
9/2008 |
12/2008 |
3/2009 |
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross |
84% |
83.7% |
83.7% |
83.5% |
85.1% |
85.9% |
Operating |
30.5% |
29.3% |
31.1% |
31.5% |
34.8% |
35.8% |
Net |
16.8% |
15.8% |
18.5% |
21.6% |
16.8% |
17% |
FCF/Revenue |
23.7% |
27.9% |
30.2% |
28.8% |
34.2% |
35.2% |
Y-O-Y Growth |
12/2007 |
3/2008 |
6/2008 |
9/2008 |
12/2008 |
3/2009 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue |
0.1% |
(2.7%) |
0.8% |
1.4% |
(0.3%) |
(1%) |
Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's. Data reflects trailing-12-month performance for the quarters ended in the named months.
Pfizer's changes in revenue are something only a lazy hiker could enjoy -- flat, flat, and flat. New drugs haven't been enough to make up for decreasing sales of Lipitor as it faces competition from cheap generic versions of Merck's
One Fool says:
I want to love Pfizer. Its beaten-down price and solid dividend make it look tempting.
But previous large acquisitions of Warner-Lambert and Pharmacia haven't exactly created long-term shareholder value. This time with Wyeth could be different, but investors would be wise to take a lesson from Missouri and adopt a show-me attitude. Staying in your bear cave until it's safe to come out may result in missing a run-up to fair value, but it'll also keep you from jumping into quicksand.