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The 12-month rate of inflation as of July 2026 is 3.4%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Energy inflation spiked to 14.7% as the status of the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain. Core inflation, which excludes energy and food, was 2.5%.
July was the second straight month in which inflation fell, although it remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target.
Energy inflation is four times higher than overall inflation and largely explains why total inflation remains elevated. Gas prices are up 24.6%, although down from 26.7% in June and 40.5% in May, according to BLS. A gallon of gas cost $4.06 on average in July, down from $4.65 in May, per BLS.
Energy prices -- and overall inflation -- have risen since February, after the conflict with Iran disrupted energy exports transiting the crucial Strait of Hormuz.
Broken down by product, inflation in July wasn't uniform. A handful of categories, mostly related to energy, rose significantly compared to July 2025. This is the rate of inflation for select main categories as of July 2026:
Energy continues to be the main driver of overall inflation and has a more direct impact on prices in fuel-reliant industries, such as airfare, costs for which are up 25.5% as carriers grapple with rising fuel costs, and gasoline, which is up 24.6%.
Shelter inflation, although not rising as quickly as energy, still remains above core inflation and the Fed's 2% target. Shelter and energy are difficult for consumers to substitute, making rising costs in those categories feel more acute than lower inflation in areas such as vehicles, a discretionary purchase.
BLS tracks average inflation in the four Census regions (Northeast, Midwest, South, West), and nine divisions. These have smaller samples and are more volatile than the national index. Inflation is highest in the Northeast (4.1%), particularly the Middle Atlantic (4.2%), and lowest in the West (3.0%), specifically, the West South Central area (2.5%).
Here's the 12-month rate of inflation by Census region for July 2026:
Here's the 12-month rate of inflation by BLS division for July 2026:
From late 2013 until the end of 2020, inflation in the West tended to be higher than the national average by around 1%. Inflation in the South was higher than the national rate in the early 2020s, while the Northeast had lower inflation during the same period.
Analysis by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago found that house prices have historically been the main driver of regional differences in inflation.
Over the last 20 years, the average inflation rate was 2.6%.
Inflation plummeted during the Great Recession, dropping from 5.6% in July 2008 to -2.1% a year later. Housing prices collapsed, banks tightened their lending standards after years of high-risk mortgage approvals, and unemployment skyrocketed. Consumer borrowing and spending declined, resulting in a brief period of deflation.
The inflation rate remained stable at around an average of 2% throughout the 2010s until the onset of the global pandemic in the spring of 2020. From January to May 2020, inflation went from 2.5% to 0.1%. With lockdown measures in place and widespread economic uncertainty, consumers reduced spending, leading to lower inflation.
That period of low inflation didn't last long. In the spring of 2021, inflation rose rapidly, peaking at 9.1% in June 2022. Inflation remained above 5% until April 2023, driven by supply chain disruptions, shocks to the energy market driven by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and strong consumer demand.
Since then, the average inflation rate has been 3.1%, above the Fed's 2% target, driven recently by global energy flows being choked by uncertainty over the critical Strait of Hormuz amid the Iran conflict.
Inflation has a significant impact on the stock market. When inflation rises faster than wages, consumer purchasing power declines. That can reduce spending and business activity.
In some cases, the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates to fight surging inflation, as it did in 2022. It then becomes more expensive for companies to borrow money, cutting into profits and potentially slowing expansion.
Stocks tend to perform best when inflation is around the Fed's 2% target. Here's the average annual return of the S&P 500 in different inflation environments.
Inflation | Average S&P 500 Return (1-year rolling) |
|---|---|
0%-2% | 10.7% |
2%-3% | 13.8% |
3%-5% | 8.5% |
Over 5% | 2.4% |
Investors seeking to build a diversified portfolio may be interested in companies that have historically been insulated from inflation.
I bonds are another option to consider to counter inflation. The Treasury Department sets rates for I bonds in May and November using CPI data from the previous six months. The current I bond rate is 4.26%, according to the Treasury Department. The November rate will reset based on CPI data collected in the six months prior.
Inflation cooled slightly in July to 3.4% from 3.5%, but remains above the Fed's 2% target.
The headline inflation number hides how unevenly, and in some cases dramatically, prices are moving. Energy prices are 14.7% higher than a year ago, translating to higher prices at the pump and for airfare, and shelter costs are up 3.2%, further pinching consumers.
Location matters as well: BLS data suggest the average consumer in the West faces less intense inflation than those in the Northeast.
Whether inflation feels like it's cooling or getting hotter depends not just on the national headline number but also on where someone lives and what they're buying.