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Silver is a common alternative investment to add diversification to a portfolio, but because it's a precious metal, it behaves differently from equities. Indeed, historical analysis of silver vs. stocks shows that there's a fairly large gap in performance between the two.
Volatility is much higher with silver than with stocks or gold. Although this can lead to higher peaks, the price swings negatively impact long-term returns.
The S&P 500 delivered a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.2% from 1972 to 2024, according to data from Robert Shiller at Yale, while silver had a CAGR of 6.3% over the same time period, based on data from Macrotrends. The average stock market return includes dividends.
Compared to its CAGR, silver had a much higher simple average return of 10.1% from 1972 to 2024, which would put it much closer to stocks, but that's a misleading way to judge its performance. The compound return gap comes from silver's volatility. It has had years of spectacular outperformance, most notably in 1979, when it grew 127.7%. However, it has also had significant declines. Outperformance inflates the simple average, but the volatility and downturns negatively impact its compound returns.
The CAGR of 6.3% is the growth rate a long-term silver investor would have actually experienced, which falls well short of the stock market's growth rate. Stocks have also consistently outperformed silver, including over the 10-, 20-, and 30-year periods lasting through 2024. Note that silver's 50-year CAGR in the table below is even lower than its CAGR from 1972 to 2024 because it doesn't include 1972, 1973, and 1974, all of which were strong years for the precious metal.
Period | S&P 500 CAGR | Silver CAGR |
|---|---|---|
10 years (2015–2024) | 13.3% | 4.1% |
20 years (2005–2024) | 10.5% | 7.4% |
50 years (1975–2024) | 12.4% | 3.6% |
On a decade-by-decade basis, stocks outperformed silver in the 1980s, 1990s, and the 2010s. Silver came out ahead in the 2000s, with a CAGR of 10.8% as the commodities supercycle pushed prices up. The S&P 500 had a CAGR of -0.7% that decade, which started with the dot-com crash and culminated in the 2008 financial crisis.
While the data set didn't cover the entire 1970s, silver outperformed the S&P 500 from 1972 to 1979, with CAGRs of 30.2% and 5.3%, respectively.
Although silver is a precious metal like gold, it also has a variety of industrial applications, including in electronics, solar energy, automotives, and as a brazing alloy. Roughly 58% of global silver demand was industrial in 2025, according to the Silver Institute 2026 World Silver Survey.
Industrial demand leads to stark differences in how silver, gold, and stocks perform. Gold has little industrial demand. Instead, most gold demand comes from its role as a monetary asset in central bank reserves and as an investment that can retain its value during market downturns. Stocks represent ownership in a business, and stock demand comes from a business's earnings performance and growth prospects.
The end result is that silver has far more volatility than stocks and gold. Silver's annual returns from 1972 to 2024 had a standard deviation of 30.8%, meaning that was the average year-to-year swing in returns. Gold's standard deviation was 23.3%, and the S&P 500's was 16.9%.
Silver also had several extreme years of massive outperformance or underperformance, which sometimes occurred in close proximity to each other. In 1979, silver appreciated 127.7% due to the Hunt Brothers' silver squeeze, when two billionaires reportedly acquired about one-third of the global silver supply. Following the collapse of the silver squeeze, the price fell 48.6% in 1981.
Gold exposure in an investment portfolio helps protect against declines in equities, but the case for silver isn't as clear. Silver's annual return correlation with the S&P 500 was -0.13 from 1972 to 2024, compared to -0.22 for gold over the same period.
A negative correlation indicates that one asset tends to rise when the other falls, and vice versa, with the amount signifying how strong the trend is. For example, a correlation of -1 means they move in completely opposite directions. Gold's return correlation with the S&P 500 is only weakly negative, and silver's negative correlation is even weaker. Both precious metals tend to perform well in years when stocks decline, but it's not reliable year to year.
Because gold doesn't rely on industrial demand, it's a purer hedge than silver. Although some investors debate gold vs. stocks, gold's role as a hedge can make it a good complement to stocks in a way that silver isn't. Industrial demand slows in economic downturns, and with over half of global silver demand coming from industrials, silver often sells off alongside stocks. This reduces silver's value as a hedge, as its price is connected to economic conditions.
Silver also produces no income, which is also true of gold. Stocks, meanwhile, can generate income for investors through dividends.
CAGR is what matters for long-term investors, and in that regard, the S&P 500 outperformed silver from 1972 through 2024, 11.2% to 6.3%. It has also done so with much less volatility. Silver investors have experienced the whiplash of huge gains one year, followed by a multi-year drawdown.
Also worth noting is that investing in silver is generally a bit more expensive than investing in stocks. The best S&P 500 index funds offer exposure to the entire index and have very low expense ratios. Annual fees on silver ETFs are higher, so you pay more for the convenience of buying silver this way. Another option for investors is silver stocks, such as mining companies, instead of direct ownership.
The case for silver rests on growth in industrial demand, particularly in solar energy and electric vehicles (EVs). Although it's certainly possible, especially with the move toward renewable energy, it's a forward-looking argument. Even if it turns out to be accurate and silver grows due to its industrial applications, the stock market could still outperform, as it has done historically.