Social Security is an essential retirement income source for most seniors today. But if you ask younger workers, many aren't sure they'll ever see a dime from the program. Their concerns aren't entirely unfounded, though they are a bit overblown.
The program is in financial distress. It's been spending more money than it's taken in since 2021, and current estimates suggest it has less than a decade until its trust funds are depleted and it can't pay out all scheduled benefits. It wouldn't go away, though. Even in the worst-case scenario, Social Security would continue on with its income from the payroll taxes that workers pay and possibly from income taxes on Social Security benefits if current law remains in place.
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Benefit cuts could happen, but it's more likely that Congress will find a way to reform the program so most Americans can continue to receive their benefits as scheduled -- or maybe even get more than they're receiving now. The challenge is finding a strategy most can agree upon. If you want to see what Washington is up against, you can try your hand at reforming Social Security.
How would you fix Social Security's funding shortfall?
There isn't a single strategy that will keep Social Security solvent for the foreseeable future. It'll likely to take a combination of approaches. Some of the proposed solutions involve raising payroll taxes on workers while others suggest reducing benefits for some seniors.
The Reformer tool from the Committee for a Responsible Budget lets you play out different scenarios to see what kind of effect they would have on the funding shortfall. It gives you a list of several proposed options -- everything from raising the full retirement age (FRA) to investing trust fund earnings in the stock market -- so you can see what it might take to fix Social Security.
The tool does a great job of highlighting the many paths Washington could take to fix Social Security's funding crisis. But it also forces you to make some difficult choices about who should have to pay to keep the program sustainable for future generations.
Some options, like taxing all wages above $400,000 -- which are currently exempt from Social Security payroll tax -- would go a long way. The Reformer tool estimates this would eliminate about two-thirds of the estimated shortfall. The idea of forcing the wealthy to pay more is one that's gotten a lot of bipartisan support, but there are few other proposals likely to appeal to such a broad base of Americans.
To make things more complicated, the tool also gives you options like changing the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) formula. This is something many seniors have long hoped for to help their benefits better keep up with inflation. But doing so would actually increase the projected funding shortfall because it would increase spending. So if you hope to make reforms to increase benefits to seniors, you'd have to find a way to bring in even more revenue or else decrease Social Security benefits for some retirees.
Why hasn't Washington done anything about Social Security yet?
You may be able to come up with a Social Security proposal that works for you using The Reformer. But the challenge for Washington is finding a plan that a majority of Congress -- and the public -- can accept.
Republicans have proposed gradually raising Social Security's FRA, which would effectively cut benefits for younger workers. Yet Trump has also proposed ending Social Security benefit taxes, which would increase the money available to seniors while also increasing the program's overall spending.
As with most political issues, many Democrats approach Social Security reform differently. Former Vice President Kamala Harris previously supported bills that would have required wealthier Americans to pay more in Social Security payroll taxes. However, as mentioned above, this alone wouldn't be enough to eliminate the projected shortfall.
With Social Security now less than a decade away from possible benefit cuts, the next few years are likely to see an increased focus on reforming the program. It's not clear what Congress will decide, though it may involve a combination of strategic benefit cuts and higher taxes. Once a plan is in place, it'll be time for workers and seniors alike to review their budgets and decide how they're going to cover their retirement costs.
