If you're on Social Security, Oct. 15 probably can't come fast enough. That's the day the Social Security Administration will officially announce the 2026 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA). While the odds of the above-average COLA are looking a lot better than they were at the beginning of 2025, knowing that still doesn't tell you anything about how far your checks will go in 2026.
The truth is, we can't know for sure. But we can make some pretty good guesses about what the average increase will look like based on the latest COLA estimates. Once you know that, you can start to build your budget for next year.
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The 2026 Social Security COLA will probably be around 2.7%
Only the Social Security Administration can give us the official 2026 COLA, but The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), a nonpartisan senior group, is known for its close estimates, especially as the official announcement date nears. TSCL's predictions began with a slightly below-average 2.1% COLA in January, but over the past several months, it's risen to 2.7%.
A 2.7% COLA will mean different things to different people. The table below shows what someone receiving the average benefit in July 2025 could expect from a 2.7% boost.
|
Benefit Type |
Average Monthly Benefit (July 2025) |
Average Monthly Benefit + 2.7% COLA |
Monthly Benefit Increase |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Retirement |
$2,007 |
$2,061 |
$54 |
|
Spousal |
$954 |
$980 |
$26 |
|
Survivor |
$1,574 |
$1,616 |
$42 |
|
Disability |
$1,582 |
$1,625 |
$43 |
Data source: Social Security Administration. All benefit amounts rounded to the nearest dollar.
This might be a little lower than you were hoping for, but there are a few things to bear in mind. First, this is only the average benefit. If you're currently receiving more than the average benefit, you will also see a bigger bump to your Social Security checks next year than the increase shown above.
It's also important to note that average benefits tend to creep up over time even without COLAs, in part due to new seniors with higher lifetime earnings than past generations applying for benefits. So the average increase for all beneficiaries could come in a little higher than what we see in the table above, due to small increases in the average benefit over the coming months.
Of course, there's always the possibility that the COLA itself could come in a little higher than 2.7%. In that case, everyone would get a bigger boost. But that money would likely go toward an inflated cost of goods , rather than toward improving your lifestyle.
What to do if you don't think the COLA will be enough
Once the Social Security Administration officially announces the COLA, it will send out notices to all seniors with their new benefit amount for 2026. These usually arrive in December. But you can come up with a pretty good approximation on your own by multiplying your existing checks by the COLA percentage.
If that amount isn't enough to cover your monthly expenses, you may need to make some changes to your retirement budget. This might include relying more upon money in your retirement accounts, reducing expenses, or even looking for new ways to bring in extra cash. That could be a part-time job or other government benefits, like Supplemental Security Income (SSI).
Figure out a strategy that works for you ahead of time, then test it out in the first months of 2026. If you find it's not working out how you'd imagined, you may need to make some further adjustments.
