For many retirees, Social Security is their most valuable asset. And few things have a bigger impact on their budget than the annual Social Security cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA.
The COLA is designed to ensure Social Security payments keep up with the rising costs of goods and services. Still, many seniors have felt the pinch of rising medical and housing expenses over the last few years. Even after a string of above-average COLAs, it's still a struggle to keep up with soaring prices.
The 2026 COLA is shaping up to be another big raise for retirees, but will it be enough to keep up with climbing prices? Here's exactly when we'll get the number and how much retirees can expect.
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Here's when we'll have the exact number
Congress standardized the annual calculation for the COLA starting in 1975. Instead of requiring legislators to agree on how much to increase annual benefit, it now uses a measure of inflation called the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W).
The Bureau of Labor Statistics is in charge of gathering the data necessary and calculating the CPI-W and its sister measurements each month. It surveys hundreds of businesses and households around the country to get an idea of how prices have changed from month to month. It then adjusts those prices based on the original indexed value and weights them according to a theoretical basket of goods and services typical of an urban wager earner's household spending.
The Social Security Administration uses the average year-over-year increase in the CPI-W for the third quarter (July through September) to calculate the COLA for the next year. We already have the numbers for July and August, but September's CPI-W number won't come out until the morning of Oct. 15.
So, retirees will have to wait until 8:30 a.m. ET on Oct. 15 to find out how much of a boost their benefits will get next year.
In the meantime, several analysts have released their best guesses as to how big next year's COLA will be. And there are a few things you can watch to help calibrate your expectations leading up to mid-October.
Here's what the experts expect
Back in July, the Social Security Board of Trustees released their estimate for the 2026 COLA and beyond as part of their annual report. The Trustees expected the base case for next year's COLA to be a 2.7% raise for retirees.
That might not be too far off the mark. The Senior Citizens League and Kiplinger's David Payne also expect a 2.7% COLA for next year after reviewing the CPI data from July and August. July's CPI-W reading came in 2.5% higher than last year's and August saw the metric climb 2.8%.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget and independent analyst Mary Johnson both project a 2.8% COLA for next year.
It's very likely when we get the final tally it'll be either 2.7% or 2.8%, but retirees may want to keep an eye on the Cleveland Fed's Nowcast, which uses oil and gas prices to estimate inflation rates in real time. After the latest CPI release on Sept. 11 bumped up expectations for the September numbers, the Nowcast has moved slightly lower. That could indicate a 2.7% COLA is more likely than 2.8%.
A 2.7% COLA would be bigger than 2025's 2.5% raise. Still, some seniors may find their monthly payments still don't go as far, as Medicare costs are set to rise even faster and transportation and housing, two of the biggest expenses for retirees, are growing faster than overall inflation. Those relying heavily on Social Security to make ends meet will need to prioritize their budgets and look to other sources of income in retirement to supplement their benefits. Those using it as a supplement may need to rely more on their retirement savings next year.
