Pitfalls of the Gartner Hype Cycle
There are a few misconceptions about the Gartner Hype Cycle that are important to understand before you attempt to use this model for your investing. Remember, firstly, that it is just a model that only approximates real life. Real life is messy, but models are not, so you could easily watch a technology bounce between parts of the cycle repeatedly before it finally settles.
Also -- and most importantly -- you cannot time the market using the Gartner Hype Cycle. This is not about timing the market or predicting the speed at which a new technology will mature. It's about understanding how the technology will mature, as well as the risk associated with each step of the process.
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