Treasury Yield: What It Is and How It Works

By Lyle Daly – Updated Apr 3, 2025 at 5:17 PM EST

Key Points

Treasury yields are the annual returns on debt obligations by the U.S. government.
Treasury prices and yields are inversely related; higher demand increases prices and leads to lower yields.
An upward-sloping yield curve suggests economic confidence, while an inverted one signals recession risk.

Treasury yield is the annual interest rate on a U.S. Treasury security. It's the amount the federal government pays on a debt obligation and the annual return the holder of that debt earns. For example, if a 20-year Treasury bond has a 5% yield, the investor would earn a 5% return on the bond's face value every year.

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The U.S. Treasury building. — Image source: Getty Images.

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Even if you're not planning to invest in Treasury securities, Treasury yields can help you gauge the overall economic outlook. The Treasury yield curve, which represents the yields paid by short-term and long-term Treasurys, is used in forecasting growth, inflation, and the possibility of a recession.

Under normal circumstances, the Treasury yield curve slopes upward, which indicates that longer-term Treasurys have higher yields than shorter ones. An upward curve is a sign that investors are confident in the economy.

On the other hand, if short-term Treasurys have higher yields, the result is an inverted yield curve that slopes downward. An inverted yield curve is considered an indicator of a recession, although it isn't always accurate. The logic is that investors are willing to accept lower rates on long-term Treasurys because they're worried that yields could get even lower in the near future.

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About the Author

Lyle Daly is a contributing Motley Fool stock market analyst covering information technology and cryptocurrency. Lyle has been a contributor at the financial services company since 2018. His work has been featured on USA Today, Yahoo Finance, MSN, Fox Business, and Nasdaq. Before joining The Motley Fool, he wrote for financial brands including Intuit.

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