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CoreLogic Inc (NYSE:CLGX)
Q3 2020 Earnings Call
Oct 22, 2020, 5:00 p.m. ET

Contents:

  • Prepared Remarks
  • Questions and Answers
  • Call Participants

Prepared Remarks:

Operator

Good afternoon, and welcome to the CoreLogic's Third Quarter 2020 Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]

I would now like to turn the conference over to Dan Smith, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Dan Smith -- Investor Relations Officer

Thank you, and good afternoon. Welcome to our investor presentation and conference call where we present our financial results for the third quarter 2020. Speaking today will be CoreLogic's President and CEO, Frank Martell; and CFO, Jim Balas.

Before we begin, let me make a few important points. First, we've posted our slide presentation, which includes additional details on our financial results on our website. Second, please note that during today's presentation, we may make forward-looking statements with the meaning --- within the meaning of federal securities laws, including statements concerning our expected business and operational plans, performance outlook and acquisition and growth strategies and our expectations regarding industry conditions. All of these statements are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements.

For further details concerning these risks and uncertainties, please refer to our SEC filings, including the most recent annual report on Form 10-K and subsequent 10-Qs. Our forward-looking statements are based on information currently available to us and we do not intend and undertake no duty to update these statements for any reason.

Additionally, today's presentation contains financial measures that are non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to their GAAP equivalents is included in the Appendix to today's presentation. Unless specifically identified, comparisons of third quarter financial results to prior periods, should be understood on a year-over-year basis that is in reference to the third quarter of 2019.

Third, as outlined in last week's press release, CoreLogic's reseller operations have been classified as discontinued operations as of September 30, 2020. Our discussion today will focus on our results from continuing operations. Fourth, as with our second quarter earnings call, we will be fielding questions focused on the Company, its operational and financial results and our expectations for the future. We do not intend to discuss the ongoing hostile bid process or matters connected to the upcoming special shareholders meeting.

Finally, please limit yourselves to one question with a brief follow-up. We will take additional questions at the end of the call as time permits.

Thanks. And now, let me introduce our President and CEO, Frank Martell.

Frank Martell -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Dan, and good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today for CoreLogic's third quarter 2020 earnings call. Today, I will outline the major operating and financial highlights of our third quarter performance, including ongoing market share gains and competitive wins across our businesses, which have been driving higher organic growth rates over the past year. In addition, I will cover the transition of our revenue mix to higher fixed recurring solutions with significantly lower levels of sensitivity to mortgage volumes. I will also outline the drivers behind the step function increase in our adjusted EBITDA margins and discuss capital return.

Jim will follow me and provide details on our third quarter financial results as well as our plans related to the divestiture of our reseller businesses. He will also discuss our full-year 2020 financial guidance and outlook for 2021. I will then finish up with a few thoughts on our successful strategic transformation and the accelerated value creation opportunities in the short, medium and longer term available to our shareholders. We'll then wrap up with a Q&A session.

Before I begin, I want to take a moment to congratulate our 5,000 plus employees and thank our clients and shareholders as we celebrate CoreLogic's 10th anniversary. Together, over the past decade, we have transformed CoreLogic into a clear market leader in residential property-related data, analytics and platforms that power the housing finance and insurance markets in North America, Australia and New Zealand. In the process, we returned $1.5 billion to our shareholders and have increased our share price 286%[Phonetic].

Now, turning to the third quarter specifically, building off of an excellent first half of the year, CoreLogic delivered record levels of revenue and the strongest operational and financial performance in its 10-year history. We generated double-digit top line growth with 8% organic revenue gains. Our organic growth rate more than doubled in the third quarter from the first half as we picked up momentum from mega wins in mortgage and insurance and other significant share gains secured over the past four quarters.

During the quarter, we continued to boost our non-mortgage business and the percentage of fixed recurring revenue in line with our strategic planning objectives. Strong top line growth, favorable mix, operating leverage and our ongoing cost management programs also drove profitability to record levels during the quarter. Our reported third quarter revenues were up 16% from prior year driven by organic growth, strong U.S. housing market activity and a rebound in our major non-U.S. markets. Organic growth rates climbed from 5% in the second quarter to 8% in Q3 on the strength of share gains secured over the past 12 to 18 months, as well as benefits from our new and/or enhanced solution bundles and favorable pricing.

As we discussed in past earnings calls, our share gains, included four mega wins, we recently announced two of these wins. First, a contract to provide tax payment solutions to Mr. Cooper and second, a strategically important contract win with Liberty Insurance, which is centered on CoreLogic's unique capability to deliver next generation solutions for insurance carriers, including our insurance claims processing offering. We believe that the strategic impact of winning a top five insurance client with end-to-end solutions serves as an important catalyst for the substantial expansion of our insurance footprint over the next three years. These multiple year relationships aggregating approximately $160 million in total contract value are with innovative market leaders and offer the potential for future scope and service delivery expansion. These wins, and many others, are clearly raising our second half organic growth rates and will contribute a substantial portion of our 2021 organic growth target.

In addition to our strong organic and total growth performance in Q3 and over the past four quarters, we've also driven a stair-step increase in our profitability margins. In this regard, third quarter adjusted EBITDA was up 46%. Adjusted EBITDA margins hit 40%, up approximately 800 basis points. Operating income from continuing operations was up 18% and our third quarter net income from continuing operations was up $71 million to $102 million. Third quarter and year-to-date adjusted EBITDA margins are now -- are up approximately 800 basis points and are now in-line with the highest performing companies within our information services peer group. Higher margins reflect the shift in our revenues to higher levels of fixed recurring solutions as well as operating leverage and cost productivity.

In addition to strong growth and higher margins, our rate of free cash flow generation continues to accelerate. On a trailing 12-month basis, we generated free cash flow of $403 million, representing a 73% conversion rate of adjusted EBITDA. Consistent with long-held capital allocation priorities, we remained focused on returning significant levels of capital to our shareholders. In July, we announced a 50% increase in our dividend, which resulted in $26 million of capital return to our shareholders during the third quarter.

In addition, as we previously announced, we expect to complete our repurchase of at least $500 million in shares by the end of 2020 as part of our $1 billion share buyback program, expected to be completed by the end of 2022. The exceptional operating and financial performance that I just discussed reflects the successful implementation of our strategic planning objectives, which include, first, market leadership and strategic client partnership through innovative data-driven solutions, second, achieving critical scale and operating leverage in our core solutions, third, increasing predictable fixed recurring and non-mortgage revenues to greater than 50% of total, fourth, achieving first quartile profitability through revenue mix development, operating leverage and aggressive cost productivity and fifth, and finally, returning significant levels of capital to our shareholders in the form of share repurchases and quarterly dividends.

The strength of our business model and the resiliency of our team have been key factors of success in 2020 as we continue to drive significant value despite the unprecedented COVID pandemic. Over the past nine months, we have successfully navigated through the profound operating changes necessary to protect the health and welfare of our people and at the same time, deliver exceptional performance for our clients. Despite the unprecedented challenges presented by COVID-19, our performance in 2020 stands as a clear confirmation that our company is entering the second decade of its business with all of our fundamental building blocks in place to unleash a period of strong and sustained revenue and margin growth and to drive superior shareholder value creation.

Looking beyond this year in terms of 2021, we have secured a substantial percentage of our organic revenue growth target of 5% through already contracted wins and pricing gains. In addition, we expect to benefit from the adoption of our next generation integrated insurance solution and the national expansion of our OneHome and HomeVisit solutions. Approximately, 95% of our 2021 revenues will be recurring in nature, a foundational hallmark of must have information services providers.

I want to close by thanking our employees, clients and shareholders for their continued support. CoreLogic today is an integrated, innovative and data-driven strategic partner for virtually ever major participant in housing finance and the insurance ecosystem. Our consistent, exceptional operating and financial performance over time demonstrates our ability to capitalize on our market-leading share positions, unmatched data and client platforms, which collectively connect the global housing economy and help millions of people find, buy and protect the homes they love.

I'll now the -- turn the call over to Jim.

Jim Balas -- Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, Frank, and good afternoon, everyone. Today, I'm going to discuss our third quarter 2020 financial results and provide updated views on capital structure and financial guidance.

As Frank mentioned, CoreLogic delivered strong financial performance in the third quarter of 2020, while delivering on our client commitments and providing for the ongoing health and safety of our employees amid the COVID-19 crisis. Financial highlights for the quarter included, first, strong total revenue growth of 16%, which after adjusting for the 2019 effects of business exits and COVID-19 impact was higher by approximately 23% from the year-ago period. Second, strong market share gains across both segments contributed to an organic growth rate of 8%. Included in this amount are contributions of the initial onboarding of major client multi-year wins announced earlier this year, which contributed approximately 30% of our organic growth in the third quarter and are expected to benefit 2021 and beyond.

Third, significant adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of more than 800 basis points driven by growth, favorable business mix and productivity gains. Fourth, the generation of $403 million in free cash flow, this represents a conversion rate of 73% of our adjusted EBITDA on a trailing 12-month basis. And finally, approximately $26 million in capital return to shareholders and continued reduction of covenant leverage to 2.5 times.

Third quarter revenues totaled $437 million, up $61 million or 16% driven by growth in core mortgage, insurance and spatial and international. As noted in our press release, third quarter 2019 revenues included $17 million attributable to non-core default technology units sold and the AMC transformation, which have no 2020 counterpart.

Also, we experienced impacts related to the COVID-19 pandemic of approximately $4 million within our PIRM segment. Revenues were up 23% excluding these discrete items. UWS revenues totaled $263 million, up $54 million or 26%, driven by higher mortgage unit volumes and organic growth fueled by market share gains in both flood and property tax solutions and growth in our valuation platforms. UWS third quarter 2019 revenues included $17 million related to the transformational initiatives I mentioned earlier. Excluding these discrete items, UWS revenues were up 37%. In property tax solutions, revenue growth of 61% benefited from strong origination volumes and market share gains from recently contracted wins.

As we look out into 2021, our significant competitive takeaways in tax announced earlier this year give us high confidence that we will generate strong growth over the next 18 to 24 months. PIRM revenues totaled $176 million compared to $169 million in the prior year. 2020 third quarter PIRM revenues were unfavorably impacted by approximately $4 million of COVID-19 related impacts in our international business, housing activity within property insights and project-related insurance and spatial revenues. Despite these COVID-19 impacts, PIRM growth totaled about 4% in the quarter.

As Frank discussed earlier, the big win with Liberty in our insurance and spatial business should provide very significant growth opportunities over the next several years. Operating income from continuing operations totaled $73 million for the third quarter, up $11 million compared to the same prior year period. Higher operating income was principally attributable to revenue growth, operating leverage, improved business mix and cost productivity.

Third quarter net income from continuing operations totaled $102 million compared with $32 million in 2019. Diluted EPS from continuing operations totaled $1.26, an increase of $0.87 over the same prior year period. Adjusted EPS totaled $1.21 compared with $0.71 in 2019, an increase of 70%. These increases were due to the company's strong operating performance discussed previously.

Adjusted EBITDA totaled $176 million, an increase of 46% compared to the same prior year period. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 40%, an increase of approximately 800 basis points. The increase in adjusted EBITDA and margin was principally attributable to revenue growth, operating leverage, improved business mix and the benefits of ongoing cost productivity.

UWS adjusted EBITDA was $140 million compared to $85 million for the prior year quarter, reflecting operating leverage benefits driven by higher revenues, favorable mix and continued productivity gains. UWS adjusted EBITDA margins grew by approximately 12 percentage points to 53%. PIRM adjusted EBITDA totaled $49 million up from $46 million. Higher PIRM adjusted EBITDA and margins were driven by growth in insurance and spatial in international as well as the benefit of lower costs, which more than offset the impacts of COVID-19. PIRM adjusted EBITDA margins totaled 28%, an increase of approximately 100 basis points.

In terms of capital return, as we announced in July, we increased our quarterly dividend payout by 50%, which resulted in a return of $26 million to our shareholders. Also, with our growing earnings profile, we lowered our covenant debt leverage to 2.5 times.

Finally, we generated strong levels of free cash flow. For the 12-months ending September 30, 2020, free cash flow totaled $403 million, a 73% conversion rate of last 12-months adjusted EBITDA. Our continued strong cash generation performance allowed us to build our cash balance to approximately $300 million by quarter-end. Given the strength of our earnings profile and increasing strong cash flow generation, we continue to have high conviction in our ability to execute our previously announced $1 billion share repurchase with at least $500 million in 2020, $300 million in 2021 and the remaining $200 million in 2022.

Regarding our financial guidance, based on our strong third quarter results and the continued positive business momentum we are seeing in the fourth quarter, we believe we will finish 2020 at the upper end of our full-year 2020 guidance ranges, which include revenues of $1.55 billion to $1.575 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $560 million to $575 million and adjusted EPS of $3.50 to $3.65.

Our full-year 2020 U.S. mortgage market volumes outlook remains unchanged at approximately 35% higher than 2019 levels. Also, we have reflected our share repurchase of $500 million in our 2020 adjusted EPS ranges. In terms of COVID-19, our outlook for full-year 2020 COVID-19 impacts for continuing operations is expected to be approximately $20 million to $25 million in both revenue and adjusted EBITDA.

As we highlighted in both the first and second quarter, our tenant screening, auto credit and alternative credit businesses, all now reflected as discontinued operations, were very much impacted by the onset of COVID. And finally, our continuing operations financial guidance includes stranded costs of approximately $36 million relating to the reclassification of the reseller businesses to discontinued operations, of which costs are expected to be reduced by approximately $10 million in 2021 and an additional $10 million in 2022.

Longer term, we have high conviction in achieving the targets we set out for 2021 and beyond. Our 2021 forecast is supported by a high and ramping rate of contract wins in both of our operating segments. New contracted wins account for over 60% of our forecasted growth in 2021. In addition, the purchase market continues to strengthen and grow in all major forecasts.

In terms of refinance volumes, the outlook continues to strengthen as we get closer to 2021. Historically low rates, which are forecasted to continue through at least 2023 in the significant population of existing loans that are in the money and meet broad-based eligibility criteria for refinance, support elevated levels of refinance volumes for the next several years. To summarize, the CoreLogic team delivered strong results in the third quarter and we are well-positioned to drive revenue growth and expand profitability this year and beyond.

Thanks for your support. I will now turn the call back over to Frank for some concluding thoughts before we go to Q&A.

Frank Martell -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, and great job, Jim. I want to close out our prepared remarks today with some comments on our laser focus on and unyielding commitment to driving shareholder value creation. We believe that our publicly announced 2020, 2021 and 2022 financial forecasts and operational plans are achievable and supported by demonstrable facts and/or visible trends. Our track record of delivering on our forecast and commitments speaks for itself.

CoreLogic is firing on all cylinders. We are exiting 2020 with accelerating momentum and believe that we're well-positioned to capitalize on the many value creation opportunities to drive continuing organic growth and margin gains. Our strong and recurring revenue growth and in-flight cost management programs provide us with a high degree of confidence in our ability to achieve our operational and our financial objectives for 2021 and 2022. I'd like to thank all of our shareholders for their ongoing dialog and input, particularly since the hostile proposal for Senator and Cannae was launched.

To be crystal clear, our Board remains open to all pathways to create value that appropriately values the Company and provides certainty of closing. Senator and Cannae's continuing shifting stream of misinformation in support of their opportunistic attempt to acquire CoreLogic deliberately ignores the facts. We plan to continue to provide significant transparency into our business such that all of our shareholders can fully appreciate CoreLogic's substantial current and potential value creation. Cannae management, through their controlled and our affiliated companies in the housing finance space, know very, very well the robust dynamics underlying the residential housing market and its bright prospects for the foreseeable future.

Again, thank you for your time and support today. While we understand that there may be some questions about the hostile proposal and the upcoming special meeting, this call is about the Company's third quarter results and we'd appreciate it if we could keep today's questions focused on our financials and our performance for the quarter.

With that, I'll now turn the call over to the operator to open up Q&A.

Questions and Answers:

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question today comes from Andrew Jeffrey with Truist.

Andrew Jeffrey -- Truist Securities -- Analyst

Hi, thanks for taking the question, guys. Appreciate it. Certainly, good to see the business cleaning up, I think it's helpful for investors. The couple of questions I have I guess are sort of broadly on organic revenue growth and then specifically as a follow-up on insurance and spatial. Considering 8% growth in the third quarter, which is a good number, 60% of which I think you said came from -- it was up 30% from new wins. And given the roll-on of those wins, shouldn't we expect organic revenue growth next year to be faster? Is there a bit of conservatism in your outlook? I'm just trying to maybe drill down on that a little bit.

Jim Balas -- Chief Financial Officer

Hey, Andrew, it's Jim. No, I think you're reading it right. We're onboarding those larger clients. The impact in the third quarter was significant, we expect that trend to continue in the fourth quarter and I think it lines up for a very strong first half of next year as we continue to board those clients, get those volumes, expand that business, and then also add other clients in the making.

Andrew Jeffrey -- Truist Securities -- Analyst

Okay. So maybe it's a little bit of tough comps in the back half, is the way to think about it. And then, with regard to insurance and spatial, in particular, which this quarter doesn't seem to have shown the benefits of the Liberty Mutual win yet, in particular. Wondering if you could just help us with the cadence from new business as well as what you think the long-term organic revenue growth in that business, in that sub-segment, in particular, can be?

Frank Martell -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. Andrew, it's Frank. So look, I think we -- your -- to answer your question on Liberty. We have onboarded the client, we're booking revenue in the third quarter, it's small and it will ramp up in the fourth quarter, but the significant ramp will be next year. So part of the lift that you're kind of alluding to and the acceleration organic growth next year will come from the ramp in the revenue profile at Liberty but also other insurance wins we've announced things like Aviva, which is the major player in Canada, and there is others as well. So actually, the prospects in the insurance vertical are quite bright and -- but I think we called out the strategic implications of having a top five player have the confidence to pick up our full solution set, which I think is a great catalyst for a significant acceleration, which the team is driving hard at.

To your point about what's the long-term prospects. I talked, in my prepared remarks, I think that business could double in the next three to five years. Our insurance footprint with wins like Liberty and others as well. Interestingly, I think if you look at our announcement on Liberty, it's also, we talk about a kind of an innovation partnership with those -- with that firm and I think it's a -- that's a great endorsement of the innovative nature of our team and what we bring to the market as well. So it's the claims business, but also that innovative partnership is very exciting as we kind of try to create other products and services.

Andrew Jeffrey -- Truist Securities -- Analyst

I appreciate it. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Darrin Peller with Wolfe Research.

Darrin Peller -- Wolfe Research -- Analyst

All right. Hey guys, thanks. I mean kind of jumping off of the prior questions around '21 and your expectation for what looks like about a 5% organic growth embedded in guidance versus the run rate recently. Maybe you guys can just give us a little more color on the building blocks beyond the new business that you've already won, which was I guess churn-side primarily. What do you think is going to really come from incremental products and pricing? And I guess I'm just curious, I mean again you're going from that 8% now and I know you do face tough comps in the second half versus a 5% implied guidance for next year, maybe you could just give us the building blocks with a little more granularity than you did in the slide, which showed what was new business, what was mortgage.

Frank Martell -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. So I think, first of all, just to be clear, so our organic growth rate was about 4% in the first half and 8% in the third quarter and we expect a very strong fourth quarter as well. So there is not going to be a drop-off in the fourth quarter, it should be very strong in the fourth quarter, Darrin. So I think clearly, the trajectory coming out of first half, second half this year is markedly higher as we exit the year. I think in terms of -- we have roughly an $80 million, if you look at 5 -- with 5% of our revenue stream organically, it's about $80 million. We have -- well, we talked about on the second quarter call, we had 60% identified and secured through contracted wins, that's really, really good, the visibility, we continue to add to that visibility. So we're -- we hope to exit this year with pretty much pushing 100% visibility into the organic growth profile and that $80 million target.

The reason why I talked a little bit more about Liberty and Mr. Cooper because that's at $160 million of total contract value. We're going to pick up about a third of that organic growth, I mean, a little less than a third of that organic growth total in those two contracts alone. So we've had probably a dozen wins in tax and many, many more in the other business units, so we got a great visibility into the organic growth trend. And I'd say, the other thing there not to miss it but if you look at 2021 from a housing market activity perspective, the MBAs come out with a big upgrade in their view of the trajectory of the purchase market and a less downward view of refi. So they're actually -- they're above $2 trillion and I think if you look at the rate assumptions they're using, there is still pretty much out of market on the high side.

So plenty -- we believe there is room on the refi side and their forecast to move up and they are already in the above $2 trillion. So I think the mortgage market's looking pretty good, especially purchase and I've always talked about purchase as being a strong indicator of the fundamental health of housing and if purchase goes up, we're also going to benefit in PIRM because we got a very significant business platform with the realtors and that's where HomeVisit and OneHome, those products service the home buying cycle. So with purchase going up, we should do well on the PR -- PIRM side as well because of the collateral benefits of that.

So I think the organic growth trend next year is pretty well in sight, so hopefully that gives you more visibility but we've --and we've been announcing for transparency purposes, a number of our wins. So you can go and look at our -- announced through the last couple of months, but some pretty big wins in addition to the ones I focused on today.

Darrin Peller -- Wolfe Research -- Analyst

Frank, we also noticed that -- just two more quick ones I'll group together, but we noticed that the property insight segment did accelerate, I think it was up 5%. So what drove that and what do you think that sustainability is? And then, just last question for me would be around your new found sensitive mortgage given the mix of the business after the divestitures. What do you think it would be if you want to go through that, something like every 100 buying originations would drive what kind of EBITDA -- revenue and EBITDA? Thanks, again.

Frank Martell -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Okay. Yeah, look, I think -- great question. So first of all, I'll take the first part of that, maybe Jim can talk about the second part, the discontinued stuff. But look, for PIRM, we got -- and that's an area that if you look back, four quarters ago, had a slowdown but that -- we had FX and other non-operating things and the market was tough and people were caught and then all kind of stuff. So we've seen an acceleration and we're seeing a pickup there.

If you look at this past quarter, a great news is we've had a resurgence in our data-licensing business, which is super high margin and it's very sticky business. So really feel great about that and the prospects for that going forward. We're also seeing some -- a pickup in the analytics area, that's where we're doing fraud analysis. So with a lot of the activity, fraud detection is important and then, I'd say the other area that kind of stands out is, it's helping around forbearance and some of the other activities around loan mods and stuff that we do on the analytics side in that segment.

And then, I'd say, finally, if you look out in the future, we just announced that it's the launch of our new AVM, which is the first -- to my knowledge, the first artificial intelligence-driven and we're literally revaluing every property in the U.S. on a monthly basis. So that is a tremendous step forward for us in the valuation side, which we believe will help accelerate AVM growth as well, but that's a little bit more forward-looking. But right now, the third quarter, super key was the licensing business and I think the analytics business as well. The realtor business is actually holding its own fairly well, I mean, you're seeing a snap back in the home, the marketing and sales area and as you know we have most realtors using our workflow platform.

So that's another that has been good and then, I know, the final thing I'd say, it's not the properties of the international piece. Everything was frozen is now kind of unfrozen, so we got great businesses making a lot of money in the international market, so those are coming back as well. So it's a pretty good news picture in PIRM and I'll let Jim talk about the disco piece.

Jim Balas -- Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. In terms of your question, Darrin, on the sensitivity, as you know, we always cited at $25 million[Phonetic] to $30 million[Phonetic] on the top line with a 40%, 50% contribution. In terms of where we are now on a continuing operations basis, when you take credit out our sensitivity, reduce it by about a third, so that is now -- that new metric is now around $17 million[Phonetic] to $20 million[Phonetic] on the top line with a slightly better margin on the pull through, given the higher margin profile businesses would be about 50% to 55%. So that would be our go-forward sensitivity. So it'd be reduced by a lot given the exit of credit and that was all variable type of revenue volume.

Darrin Peller -- Wolfe Research -- Analyst

Okay, that's very helpful. Thanks, guys.

Operator

Our next question comes from Jeff Meuler with Baird.

Jeffrey Meuler -- Robert W. Baird & Co -- Analyst

Yeah, thank you. Just as we think about I guess modeling out property tax solution revenue going forward, of the $167 million this quarter, how much of that is from origination activity over the last quarter or so versus kind of the annuity stream that you have? And then, roughly, is there a way to give us like what that annuity stream is growing by from all of the growth that you've seen over the last I guess year, year and a half?

Jim Balas -- Chief Financial Officer

Hey, Jeff, it's Jim. On the tax business, obviously, had a great quarter. The answer is in short, it had contributions both from the current activity and then also from the run-off from the large deferred revenue on contract liability balance. So when you look at that $60 million increase, you've got probably about $25 million from first year recognition, you got probably another $25 million from the run-off and then you fill in with some of the other products and services and solutions that we have in there like commercial and other like property estimation and so forth for the balance of the other $10 million.

The other bit of good news is, you're still seeing a buildup in contract liabilities. If you look back to where we were at the beginning of the year, our contract liabilities are up almost another $100 million. So we're approaching almost $1 billion now as a company with the larger portion being from the tax business. So it's really demonstrating strength across the board in terms of current activity, in terms of building up the balance sheet, in terms of also getting the benefits of the past work.

Jeffrey Meuler -- Robert W. Baird & Co -- Analyst

Okay. And then, if I look at, I don't know if you call them prop tech companies or what you would call them, but the firms that are out there that are kind of making offers to buy houses almost like site on theme, I guess, do you have partnerships there with your AVM models or just anything you can talk to in that space, I would think you'd be well positioned to be the data provider into it? Thanks.

Frank Martell -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. Yeah, Jeff, we actually, we do have significant data provision and other relationships with quite a number of those players as well so yeah, I mean I think as they expand where they are, generally, I think we're a preferred supplier for a lot of them. So depending on what their needs are obviously, but.

Jeffrey Meuler -- Robert W. Baird & Co -- Analyst

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from John Campbell with Stephens.

John Campbell -- Stephens Inc. -- Analyst

Hey guys, good afternoon.

Frank Martell -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Hey, John.

Jim Balas -- Chief Financial Officer

Hey.

John Campbell -- Stephens Inc. -- Analyst

Hey, I'm just -- first question, I'm just curious in the reseller businesses. Is that an official sell process or is that something you -- that you might just potentially just shut down and move on?

Frank Martell -- President and Chief Executive Officer

They're in active sell mode, so they're in a sell process.

John Campbell -- Stephens Inc. -- Analyst

Okay. Any -- I don't know if you can answer this, but any sense for what you might be able to fetch for that and then as that kind of influx of capital comes in, what would you might be willing to do with that?

Frank Martell -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. So yeah, I guess to first answer that, I wouldn't speculate, I can't speculate on the proceeds, but it's -- these are, the credit business in particular, is a significant business. So in terms of the capital and how would we'd use that business or that -- those proceeds in general, they'd be for a kind of general corporate purposes for capex and then debt management, etc. So kind of the general corporate purposes.

John Campbell -- Stephens Inc. -- Analyst

Okay. And then, for the next year, you guys have talked a couple of different ways about the 60% of the organic growth kind of in the bag. It sounds like that almost all of that's the $160 million of ACV from the mega wins. But, Frank, you also talked to pricing as another driver potentially next year. So I don't know if you could maybe talk to some of the other growth drivers outside of the mega wins maybe where you see low-hanging fruit for price, and then, what were a couple other levers you might point to?

Frank Martell -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. I'd say that we're getting -- I mean, Jim talked about like tax for example, where we have our property tax liability estimation service, which is a syndicated solution, I mean, that's a business that's approaching $20 million of revenue, is growing very nicely and that's just an example that a couple of years ago that was negligible. So we've seen good growth in that kind of analytics area. We used the exhaust off of the tax data to do this estimation, which is required as part of the underwriting process, that's one example, I'd say a product solution.

OneHome, I talked about -- that's launched, is in market, that's an enhancement to our realtor platform that allows consumers to do much more targeted search for properties and helps them to integrate with the -- with lenders and insurance carriers and home vendors as well. So that's kind of a leapfrog in terms of efficiency and process, which is really exciting and we're rolling that out, we expect to have most of the realtors using that by year-end.

HomeVisit, I think, we've talked about in the past, that's another example, that's -- we have a strong base in the Mid-Atlantic, I think, four states that we have a good market share position. We have plans to roll that out by major metropolitan area is really kind of the key thing there, but that's photography, imagery marketing solutions. That several hundred million dollars of TAM that's really a cottage industry today, so we're trying to kind of roll that up, that's a good example of where I think that we've got product-related.

On pricing, we've got 1%, 1.5%, nothing is coterminous, so this is all kind of a cumulative impact, but I think we have that rolling through. The mega wins, I just brought that up because $160 million is the total contract value, that's not the annual value so -- but they provide as I said about $80 million. They provide a nice chunky base for that $80 million target for next year, which I think I just provide that because it's -- to me, as I look and say, well, gosh, you got $80 million that seems like a lot, but if I got $25 million or $30 million of that with just two customers and I've got a whole ton of other customer wins, then I'm just trying to give you guys very transparent clarity that the $80 million is pretty high visibility.

And we're sitting here in the -- in kind of the fourth quarter, early stage in the fourth quarter. So that's pretty good, I think with that, with all the product roll-outs, etc., I think, we're looking pretty good for that organic growth target. And I think as was alluded to earlier, could we do better? That's our goal obviously and I think we have a foundation that brings that goal into more reality.

John Campbell -- Stephens Inc. -- Analyst

Okay. Thanks for all the details, Frank.

Operator

Our next question comes from Geoffrey Dunn with Dowling.

Geoffrey Dunn -- Dowling & Partners -- Analyst

Thanks, good evening. I wanted to revisit the tax segment, it's obviously driving a lot of the growth in UWS. Acknowledging the explanation of the $60 million incremental. Can you just look at the aggregate result for $167 million, how does that breakdown with respect to realized existing deferred liability, accelerated revenue associated with refi and then the incremental new business? Is there a way you can kind of breakout that structure going forward? It seems very difficult to model since it's not typically overly sense of the volume, but it's obviously ramping very quickly.

Jim Balas -- Chief Financial Officer

Hey, Geoff, this is Jim. So in terms of the tax business, it's kind of what I indicated if I break-up that $60 million, current volume was about $25 million falling to the revenue line in the current quarter. And then on the run-off, we built about $50 million to the contract liability balance, but then pulled down an extra $25 million on a year-over-year basis. So that's $50 million of the $60 million. And then, the rest, as we indicated, was really as a result of things that aren't in that modeled revenue like the periodic revenue, which is kind of month-to-month the commercial piece of the business, other services like Frank talked about on the property estimation.

So it's really a function of wins over the course of the year. Volumes, if you look at the new business, I cited that 30% of the organic growth rate came from the mega wins, while probably about half of that 30% was in the tax area, because we had the big Mr. Cooper win and some other wins that represented market share. So hopefully, that's helpful.

Geoffrey Dunn -- Dowling & Partners -- Analyst

Okay. So just around numbers, $100 million from deferred liability, $25 million, first year new business, $25 million, accelerated premium, and then $10 million, other?

Jim Balas -- Chief Financial Officer

Okay. I'm sorry, I see what you're trying to do. Okay, so...

Geoffrey Dunn -- Dowling & Partners -- Analyst

There's just -- there's three or so components, four components here?

Jim Balas -- Chief Financial Officer

Yeah.

Geoffrey Dunn -- Dowling & Partners -- Analyst

And I'm trying to, I am having a lot of trouble modeling this, because I think it has at least till now I'm looking at the company, it has a lot to do with how your guidance plays out over the next two years and it's very difficult to kind of put some structure around those expectations. So I'm trying to get a better feel for how the accounting component can flow over the course of '21 and '22?

Jim Balas -- Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. Generally, on the tax business, the good rule of thumb is you've got about 30% recognition in the first year in terms of volumes that you get and in terms of the overall revenue from the business about two-thirds of it flows off the balance sheet and one-third is really current year activity, that's another way of looking at it.

Geoffrey Dunn -- Dowling & Partners -- Analyst

Okay. And then, can you give us any idea with respect to the...

Jim Balas -- Chief Financial Officer

Go ahead, I'm sorry.

Geoffrey Dunn -- Dowling & Partners -- Analyst

Can you give us any idea of the existing deferred liability, how much is expected to flow through in '21, '22?

Jim Balas -- Chief Financial Officer

It should be -- for 2021, the run-off should be similar. We've done that exercise, it should be similar to 2020 levels.

Geoffrey Dunn -- Dowling & Partners -- Analyst

And I don't know if we can back into that with your balance sheet, can -- what is that expected number?

Jim Balas -- Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, I think we should probably take this offline with Dan.

Geoffrey Dunn -- Dowling & Partners -- Analyst

I guess I would ask if maybe you guys would consider adding a little bit more color or thoughts on how to look at that business just because it's ramping against so significantly and it seems to play a big part in your outlook. Any help around that line and forecast would be definitely appreciated.

Jim Balas -- Chief Financial Officer

Sure, that's good feedback.

Frank Martell -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. And I'd say, Geoff, In terms of two big picture items, one is, as Jim alluded to, I mean, deferred revenue balance is massive. So and as he gave that steer to 30% of that typical per share recognition, so we're going to have a good year next year in tax, plus we've had -- I mean, Mr. Cooper is just ramping up in this year and if you take the contract value there, which is over $100 million, you're going to have a big ramp-up from Mr. Cooper alone in addition to the kind of the dozen or so other wins that the tax group has gotten. So certainly next year, you're going to see a strong performance in tax. I think, you're going to see a strong performance in across most of the other business lines as well but that no doubt is going to help next year and 2021.

Geoffrey Dunn -- Dowling & Partners -- Analyst

Okay, thanks.

Frank Martell -- President and Chief Executive Officer

We'll take the number, we'll try to get you a bit more information.

Operator

Our next question comes from Kevin Kaczmarek with Zelman & Associates.

Kevin Kaczmarek -- Zelman & Associates. -- Analyst

Hey, guys. I have a question on repurchases, they're a bit lower than -- actually much lower than I had expected for the quarter given the guidance for $500 million for the full-year, but I guess only $9 million year-to-date. Why wait until the fourth quarter, are you waiting for the November? How should we think about the timing of those repurchases?

Jim Balas -- Chief Financial Officer

The timing, what we've assumed in the guidance range is kind of a Q4 execution and I would probably model kind of a bit quarter convention.

Kevin Kaczmarek -- Zelman & Associates. -- Analyst

Okay. And I guess on the four mega wins, you called -- you just mentioned there four and you've called out two that have been announced, what can you tell us about the nature and timing of the other two and are they in the third quarter results at all and was Aviva one of those?

Frank Martell -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. So I think one is a data-driven spatial win and that one will be over a couple years, including this quarter but more so going forward. And the other one is in the valuation space and that is ramping up, the second half, and we expect significant growth into next year. So on those two, we haven't realized the same quantum of benefit at the moment. So the -- similar to what we were discussing before, that will be contributed to our organic growth rate next year, more so than this year.

Kevin Kaczmarek -- Zelman & Associates. -- Analyst

Okay. And maybe one last one if I cut on, just back to tax processing, I guess. Can you give us kind of the loan count as of the end of the quarter on the platform and maybe the growth year-over-year?

Jim Balas -- Chief Financial Officer

[Speech Overlap]

Frank Martell -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, we have about 37 million loans.

Kevin Kaczmarek -- Zelman & Associates. -- Analyst

And how much is that up year-over-year or sequentially even?

Frank Martell -- President and Chief Executive Officer

We don't get into that level of detail, but I think it's up around -- it's up over $1 million in the last year.

Kevin Kaczmarek -- Zelman & Associates. -- Analyst

All right. Thank you very much.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Tommy McJoynt with KBW.

Thomas McJoynt-Griffith -- Keefe, Bruyette & Woods -- Analyst

Hey, guys, thanks for taking my question. So you gave a nice exhibit showing the roll forward of revenues from 2020 to 2021. So as I think of going out from '21 to '22, what's embedded in your mortgage market expectations there? And then, so I assume the plug-ins is new contract wins, and then are any of those already secured?

Jim Balas -- Chief Financial Officer

For 2022, Tommy, you're asking?

Thomas McJoynt-Griffith -- Keefe, Bruyette & Woods -- Analyst

That's right. That's right.

Jim Balas -- Chief Financial Officer

Okay, for -- yeah, for 2022, the market assumption is a 5% decline versus 2021 levels and then for the organic growth rate, we've assumed a similar 5% as we've been demonstrating here over the past several quarters and the confidence that we have into 2021. So that's what we've assumed in the 2022 roll-forward for revenue. And in terms of what's been secured to-date, obviously, that's a fairly long time frame, but a lot -- some of that will trickle obviously as we secure new wins in the coming quarters and so forth. You might get a little bit of pickup on the longer term ramp-ups in onboarding of some of the larger clients, but not -- we're not at the 60% level, but we have high confidence given the momentum we have currently.

Thomas McJoynt-Griffith -- Keefe, Bruyette & Woods -- Analyst

Okay. Yeah. I wasn't sure if anything was coming on board in the second half of '21 that can lead to some ramp up as you got to the [Technical Issues] contribution in '22.

Jim Balas -- Chief Financial Officer

Yeah.

Thomas McJoynt-Griffith -- Keefe, Bruyette & Woods -- Analyst

And then switching over, so you've announced some major wins in the insurance space. Can you characterize kind of how you got into market and offered your solutions? Are you guys offering something that's not in the market currently, are your clients unsatisfied with your current offering or their in-house solutions? Can you just kind of characterize how you guys are going to market there?

Frank Martell -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. I think that in the property and casualty insurance space, obviously, we've been a leader for quite some time, Tommy, in the underwriting portion, in the estimatics and underwriting portion of that. So it's really been the claims area that's been the bigger opportunity, that's -- so that's obviously where Liberty is coming in and supporting our service. I'd say that I don't want to get inside their head, but I think that what I've heard most is the -- our expertise around property, the fact that we have census-level coverage, the most accurate coverage of all properties including the 150 characteristics and visual imagery, etc., etc.

So I think it's the intimate knowledge of the property that really stands out. I think our -- the other thing that stands out is our integrated solution where we can connect the data so if you can get into things like pre-filling information and providing analysis, and etc., so I think it's that ability to provide that end-to-end connections, the property expertise, I think, those are resonating. And I'd say, the other thing is our claims processing platform is quite well regarded from a technological perspective. So I also hear that it's new technology, it's good. And then, look, I think the final thing is, I think we got a hungry and aggressive and good team on the ground, getting close to our clients. Our clients, in general, I think we have a high reputation with our clients because of our people and our solutions and our -- and I think that also differentiates us.

Thomas McJoynt-Griffith -- Keefe, Bruyette & Woods -- Analyst

Thanks. And then, just last one if I could sneak it in. So the originators are reporting record profitability right now, I am just able to capture such widespread. Are there any of your products that you guys are able to capture any advantageous pricing given that demand is so strong?

Frank Martell -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Well, the good news is we have long, long-term contractual relationships with all the major players, so from that standpoint, we have great cards, we have -- we're deeply embedded their workflows, etc. So I think the good news is, we have the operating leverage from the volumes. I think, in terms of the basic solution like a credit report or a flood zone determination, that's on a rate card. There is pricing activity that goes in, but you don't -- that's not -- you're not able to toggle that with daily volumes go up, and therefore, I'm in-charge more. But I think, obviously, we have tremendous operating leverage, so we gain on the top-line, but also on the bottom-line even more so.

So -- because that most of our mortgage businesses are really platforms. If you look at tax, you look at flood, you look at credit, those are automated platform businesses. Just the one in the credit business, the one that -- and why we're moving away from that is because that just -- that's a reseller, the other ones, we have a lot of contributed value, so the margins are much, much better. But in the credit side, you benefit from the volume, but you don't pick up as much incremental margin because of the fact that it's just all bureau cost.

Thomas McJoynt-Griffith -- Keefe, Bruyette & Woods -- Analyst

Okay, makes sense. Thanks.

Operator

[Operator Closing Remarks]

Duration: 59 minutes

Call participants:

Dan Smith -- Investor Relations Officer

Frank Martell -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Jim Balas -- Chief Financial Officer

Andrew Jeffrey -- Truist Securities -- Analyst

Darrin Peller -- Wolfe Research -- Analyst

Jeffrey Meuler -- Robert W. Baird & Co -- Analyst

John Campbell -- Stephens Inc. -- Analyst

Geoffrey Dunn -- Dowling & Partners -- Analyst

Kevin Kaczmarek -- Zelman & Associates. -- Analyst

Thomas McJoynt-Griffith -- Keefe, Bruyette & Woods -- Analyst

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