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DATE

Wednesday, July 29, 2026 at 11:00 a.m. ET

CALL PARTICIPANTS

  • Senior Director of Investor Relations - David Erdman
  • President and Chief Executive Officer - James Dempsey
  • Chief Commercial Officer - Robert "Bobby" Schroeter
  • Chief Financial Officer - Mark Mitchell

TAKEAWAYS

  • Total Operating Revenue -- $1.3 billion, an all-time company record up 38% year over year driven by strong demand and revenue management initiatives.
  • Adjusted Net Loss -- $22 million or $0.10 per share, narrowing from previous guidance of a $0.45 to $0.60 loss per share due to top-line performance.
  • RASM -- 11.52 cents, up 28% year over year reflecting disciplined revenue management and reduced competitive capacity.
  • Adjusted CASM (Ex-fuel) -- 7.42 cents (stage-adjusted), representing a 2% increase year over year while reflecting 10% sequential improvement in operating expenses on higher aircraft utilization.
  • Total Liquidity -- $1.16 billion at quarter-end, supported by stronger-than-expected sales and a signing bonus from a credit card partner amendment.
  • Capacity (ASMs) -- 11.1 billion, increasing 8% year over year on an average stage length of 897 miles.
  • Flown Load Factor -- 80.3%, up 1 percentage point compared to the prior-year period on capacity that was 8% higher.
  • Total Revenue per Passenger -- $131, up 20% year over year reflecting a constructive fare environment and higher ancillary capture.
  • Adjusted Total Ancillary Revenue per Passenger -- $68.42, remaining relatively flat compared to $68.33 in the prior-year quarter despite the broader fare revenue increase.
  • Fuel Expense -- $436 million, reflecting an average cost of $4.17 per gallon, which was approximately $180 million higher than initial February expectations.
  • Aircraft Fleet -- 165 Airbus aircraft at quarter-end, following the return of 24 A320neo aircraft under an early return agreement and the delivery of six new aircraft.
  • Q3 2026 Guidance -- Adjusted EPS range of ($0.10) to $0.10, with capacity growth expected between 17% and 18% as the company laps unproductive aircraft.
  • Q4 2026 Guidance -- Adjusted EPS range of break-even to $0.20, with capacity growth projected at approximately 7% to align with long-term targets.
  • Full-Year 2026 CapEx -- $170 million to $220 million, focused on capitalized heavy maintenance and other infrastructure investments.
  • Cost Savings Target -- $200 million in annual run-rate savings by 2027, driven by productivity gains and fleet right-sizing.
  • Barclays Credit Card Agreement -- Extended through 2037, with improved program economics expected to grow loyalty revenue and a pre-purchase mileage facility maxing at $375 million.
  • Aircraft Utilization -- 9.7 hours per day, with a management target to reach 11 to 11.5 hours over the medium term to improve unit costs.
  • Fuel Efficiency -- 106 ASMs per gallon, delivering what management stated is a 40% efficiency advantage over major U.S. carriers.
  • TSA Reserve Charge -- $73 million, representing a non-recurring charge following a court ruling regarding the remittance of fees for unused travel from 2016 to 2018.
  • Fuel Cost Guidance -- $3.70 per gallon for the third quarter and $3.50 per gallon for the fourth quarter, serving as primary inputs for forward earnings projections.
  • Sale-Leaseback Gains -- $50 million to $60 million estimated for the third quarter, down from previous levels as the company shifts its fleet financing strategy.
  • Immature Markets -- Low teens as a percentage of the network, declining from historical levels of 25% to 35% as the flight network matures.
  • Fleet Stability Target -- 170 aircraft, with management aiming to maintain a steady fleet size for approximately two years to allow the operation to mature.
  • Co-Brand Card Revenue -- Increasing nearly 30% year over year, supported by record card acquisition activity and double-digit growth in cardholder spend.
  • Competitive Capacity -- Down over 4 percentage points in the third quarter, creating a more favorable supply-demand backdrop for the airline in overlapping markets.

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RISKS

  • Dempsey stated, "The volatility in price in oil is really difficult to predict as is the consumer's willingness to continue paying it," highlighting the uncertainty surrounding the sustainability of fuel cost pass-throughs to passengers.

SUMMARY

Management reported that second quarter performance exceeded internal expectations, leading to an all-time company record for revenue. The company stated that it is currently executing a transformation plan centered on right-sizing the fleet, enhancing cost discipline, and introducing premium products. According to the transcript, these initiatives include the planned rollout of first-class seating and high-speed Wi-Fi to diversify revenue streams. Management indicated that the competitive environment has shifted following the exit of a primary ultra-low-cost competitor from several overlapping markets.

  • Chief Executive Officer Dempsey attributed the revenue performance to a "structural change" in the revenue base, noting that the removal of Spirit Airlines from overlapping markets likely provided a RASM improvement of more than 5 percentage points.
  • Management reported that the rollout of Starlink high-speed Wi-Fi is expected to begin in early 2027, with SpaceX technology providing gate-to-gate connectivity for both passengers and operational teams.
  • Schroeter noted the success of the UpFront Plus premium product, stating it achieved a "paid load factor... above 80%," which management cited as evidence of customer demand for segmented seat offerings.
  • The company stated that it is in advanced negotiations to early terminate leases on 13 A320neo aircraft and replace them with up to 10 A321neo aircraft by the first quarter of 2027.
  • Chief Financial Officer Mitchell indicated that the company remains on track to deliver "$200 million of targeted annual run-rate cost savings by 2027" through productivity improvements and aircraft utilization targets.
  • Dempsey stated the airline ranked fourth among domestic carriers in completion factor for the first half of the year, delivering a "controllable completion factor of 99.3%."
  • Management noted that the airline's order book remains established from 2028 through 2033, with the flexibility to grow capacity at a rate of 7% to 10% annually after the current fleet stabilization period.

INDUSTRY GLOSSARY

  • ASM (Available Seat Mile): A measure of an airline's carrying capacity, calculated by multiplying the number of seats available by the number of miles flown.
  • RASM (Revenue per Available Seat Mile): A standard industry metric calculated by dividing operating revenue by total available seat miles, used to measure an airline's efficiency in generating revenue.
  • CASM (Cost per Available Seat Mile): A common industry metric calculated by dividing operating expenses by available seat miles, used to measure the cost efficiency of an airline.
  • Ancillary Revenue: Revenue generated from sources other than ticket sales, such as baggage fees, seat assignments, and credit card partnerships.
  • PDP (Pre-Delivery Payment): Progress payments made to an aircraft manufacturer during the construction of an aircraft before its delivery.
  • SLB (Sale-Leaseback): A financial transaction where a company sells an asset and then leases it back from the buyer for the long term.
  • NDC (New Distribution Capability): A travel industry-supported program for the development and adoption of a new XML-based data transmission standard.
  • Completion Factor: The percentage of scheduled flights that an airline actually completes.
  • Controllable Completion Factor: A reliability metric that excludes flight cancellations caused by factors outside the airline's control, such as weather or air traffic control.
  • Stage-Length Adjusted: A formulaic adjustment to unit costs or revenues that allows for comparison between airlines with different average flight distances.

Full Conference Call Transcript

Operator Hello everyone. Thank you for joining us and welcome to the Frontier Group Holdings Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. I will now hand the conference over to David Erdman, Senior Director of Investor Relations. David, please go ahead. David Erdman Thanks and good morning, everyone. Welcome to our second quarter 2026 earnings call. Joining me this morning in speaking order are James Dempsey, President and Chief Executive Officer, Bobby Schroeter, Chief Commercial Officer, and Mark Mitchell, Chief Financial Officer. Each will deliver brief prepared remarks and then we'll open the call for Q&A. Before we begin, however, I will remind you that today's discussion will include forward-looking statements subject to risks and uncertainties, and we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations can be found in the earnings release issued earlier today and on our Investor Relations website. We also will be referencing stage-adjusted unit metrics which are based on a conversion to 1,000 miles. So I'll turn the call over to Jimmy to begin his prepared remarks. Jimmy? James Dempsey Thanks, David, and good morning, everyone. Our second quarter performance was well ahead of our earlier expectations and marks a meaningful step forward in Frontier's transformation. The progress we've delivered this quarter validates the actions we have taken to strengthen the airline and position the business for sustained profitability. I'm incredibly proud of the focus, urgency and execution across Team Frontier as we continue advancing the plan we announced in February. Adjusted loss per share narrowed to $0.10 compared to our original guidance range of a loss of $0.45 to $0.60 per share, with top-line performance the primary factor. We delivered an all-time company record for quarterly revenue of $1.3 billion, up 38% year-over-year, with RASM up 28%, augmented by strong travel demand, the continued progression of our revenue management initiatives, and a more favorable competitive capacity backdrop. We ended the quarter with liquidity of $1.16 billion, further strengthening our balance sheet and giving us added flexibility as we execute against our transformation priorities. Across the business, the team has been executing with discipline and momentum against the 4 priorities we set out in February: right-sizing our fleet, strengthening cost discipline, improving operational reliability, and deepening customer loyalty. Beginning with fleet right-sizing, this work is now largely complete and is creating a more efficient, more productive platform for the future. In the second quarter, we returned all 24 aircraft under the AerCap agreement. Moreover, we are in advanced discussions to early terminate leases associated with 13 A320neo aircraft in the coming months and substantially replace that capacity with direct leases for up to 10 newer, more cost-efficient A321neo aircraft by the first quarter of 2027, facilitating slower capacity growth in Q4 of approximately 7%.

On cost discipline, we are seeing clear benefits from the actions we have taken to bring productivity back into the airline and remain on track to deliver $200 million of targeted annual run-rate cost savings by 2027. Operational reliability also continued to improve, supported by a system-wide maintenance strategy that is contributing to stronger completion factor and on-time performance. For the first half of the year, Frontier ranked fourth among domestic carriers in completion factor and delivered a controllable completion factor of 99.3%. As demonstrated by today's results, customer loyalty and revenue management are gaining momentum. In late June, we extended and improved our Barclays co-brand credit card partnership.

In addition, I'm pleased we recently announced the fleet-wide rollout of Starlink high-speed Wi-Fi. We expect it to launch in early 2027. The introduction of Wi-Fi in conjunction with first-class seating significantly enhances our onboard experience and it reinforces our overarching commitment to delivering meaningful value to customers while maintaining industry-leading fares. In conclusion, we are focused on strengthening the fundamentals of our business and segmenting our revenue base to meet customer expectations. We have real momentum and I'm confident in the path ahead for Frontier. As noted in our guidance update, we anticipate returning the airline to profitability in the second half of the year.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Bobby to walk through the commercial updates. Bobby? Robert "Bobby" Schroeter Thanks, Jimmy. RASM came in at $0.1152, 28% higher year-over-year. The vast majority of the increase is a reflection of more disciplined revenue management alongside an improved overall supply-demand backdrop, which is further enhanced by Spirit's exit from overlapping markets. These factors are allowing us to substantially mitigate higher fuel prices. Total revenue per passenger rose 20% to approximately $131 on flown load factor of 80.3%, up 1 point on capacity that was 8% higher. Loyalty continues to be one of our fastest-growing, highest-margin revenue streams and the second quarter reinforced the strength of that platform.

For example, the revenue contribution from the Barclays co-brand card increased nearly 30% year-over-year, supported by record co-brand card acquisition activity and continued double-digit growth in cardholder spend through the first half of the year, reflecting the customer's recognition of the value we are delivering in the program. Customer loyalty is increasingly tied to what we deliver on board as well. With our upcoming first-class product and the Starlink rollout Jimmy mentioned, we will be delivering a meaningfully better in-flight experience. One that gives the customers who fly us today more reason to come back. And it puts Frontier in play for customers our fares alone haven't reached.

That's what converts a one-time booking into a repeat customer and a repeat customer into our cardholder. As we layer in first-class, Starlink Wi-Fi, and additional loyalty enhancements, we are building a more durable, increasingly diversified revenue base while preserving the cost discipline that defines Frontier's model. Domestic capacity in the third quarter is scheduled to be flat year-over-year, while competitive capacity is down over 4 points. Our third quarter scheduled capacity is expected to increase 2% to 3% sequentially and 17% to 18% year-over-year as we continue to normalize productivity and seize the unique opportunity to backfill lost capacity in the high-value carrier space.

Fourth quarter growth, assuming execution of the deals Jimmy mentioned previously, is expected to be approximately 7% year-over-year, more in line with our long-term growth targets. With that, I will now turn the call over to Mark. Mark Mitchell Thanks, Bobby. Total adjusted operating expenses in the second quarter were $1.3 billion, or $0.1177 per ASM, including $436 million of fuel expense at an average cost of $4.17 per gallon, approximately $180 million higher compared to forward indications from early February. Total adjusted operating expenses excluding fuel and the early return agreement were $870 million, or $0.0742 per ASM stage-adjusted, reflecting a sequential decline of over 10% on higher aircraft utilization.

Second quarter adjusted net loss was $22 million, or $0.10 per share, significantly favorable to our expected guidance range of a $0.45 to $0.60 loss. The beat was driven by stronger-than-expected revenue performance and disciplined cost management. We ended the quarter with total liquidity of $1.16 billion, significantly above our guidance range, representing 27% of trailing 12-month adjusted revenue. The increase during the quarter was supported by stronger sales than expected, the signing bonus received in connection with the Barclays amendment, which was slightly above expectations, and disciplined capital allocation. We ended the quarter with 165 Airbus aircraft, having taken delivery of 2 A320neos and 4 A321neos, and returning all 24 A320neos pursuant to the early return agreement.

During the third quarter, we expect to take delivery of one additional A320neo and 5 A321neos from our Airbus order book. As Jimmy mentioned, we are in advanced discussions to early terminate the leases associated with 13 A320neo aircraft and enter into direct leases for up to 10 newer and more cost-efficient A321neo aircraft. Assuming execution of these agreements, we would expect to operate a fleet of no greater than 168 Airbus aircraft by the end of the first quarter of 2027 and remain at that level through the end of 2027. We will provide an update should formal agreements be executed.

Turning to guidance, third quarter adjusted diluted EPS is expected to range from a loss of $0.10 per share to a profit of $0.10 per share at an average fuel cost of $3.70 per gallon. Fourth quarter adjusted diluted EPS is expected to range from break-even to a profit of $0.20 per share at an average fuel cost of $3.45 per gallon, which would reflect the third consecutive quarter of earnings improvement. Operator, we're ready to open the line for questions. Operator Your first question comes from the line of Savi Syth with Raymond James. Please go ahead. Savanthi Syth The kind of question that I had was on the capacity growth.

I think Bobby mentioned that maybe this kind of 7% capacity growth level in 4Q is kind of maybe the target level. I was wondering if you can talk a little bit about that. And it looks like you're continuing to favor maybe a higher gauge aircraft. Just any high-level thoughts on as you think about kind of medium-term growth and how you're thinking about the strategy there? James Dempsey Hi, Savi. It's Jimmy. Look, we haven't changed what we said earlier this year. We talked about somewhere between 7% and 10% capacity growth on an annualized basis over the kind of medium term.

We're obviously going through a significant fleet transition at the moment, so it's quite lumpy in terms of the capacity that we have to fly versus what we want to get to. And you're also lapping quite an unproductive airline a year ago. And so if you look at capacity growth in Q3, you know, it's elevated compared to where we want it to be. We're taking advantage of an opportunity that we have to return 13 aircraft. And quite frankly, I really like the timing of it. And we return 13 aircraft in the next couple of months if we execute this deal. And then we largely don't replace the fleet until after the winter.

And so we'll take the fleet down from where it is as you cross through the winter. And it does give us that plus an opportunity to retrofit the first-class seats onto the aircraft through this winter. And so you'll see our capacity dip from a growth perspective down to like 6%, 7%, 8%. We haven't really settled on it. We're working on timing. But in that range in the fourth quarter, which is a nice change from where we are in Q3, which is an 18% capacity growth. Robert "Bobby" Schroeter Yes, and just to add on, I know you were talking about the gauge.

I mean, look, the growth we're talking about is asset productivity, and then there is some gauge conversation in there. We like the A321neo. We think it's the best unit cost machine in domestic flying. So we're looking at how we switch those out with some of these deals that were brought up. You're talking about an up-gauge of 29%, but the unit costs or the cost per departure are significantly less than that. So from a P&L perspective, we think that's a really great move for us. Savanthi Syth That's very helpful color.

And if I just on the implications of the unit cost side, any kind of thoughts as we think about, like, the next 6 to 12 months on unit costs and how that might progress? Mark Mitchell Yes, thanks, Savi. This is Mark. Yes, so as you look at the unit cost, so we had good progression from Q1 to Q2, right? So we're still in the midst of the transition, but, you know, the substantial completion of the fleet right-sizing puts us in a good place. We're on track with our cost savings plan.

So I think what you saw in Q2, which was a 12% sequential improvement, slightly higher year-over-year because of some higher maintenance activity, some transition-related items, and some incremental sales and marketing on higher revenue. As you fast forward into Q3 and Q4, what you're going to see as you look at Q3, continued progress where you're getting on our cost savings where you get a full quarter of the rent savings, you're going to see labor productivity come through. You're still in a bit of a transition on the ownership cost front, and we're still expecting some higher maintenance activity and certainly the incremental sales and marketing.

And so when you put that together, you'll see progress on the plan, but some headwinds that we're working to mitigate in addition to Q3 from a year-over-year basis, lower SLB gains. And as you fast forward beyond Q3, what we're really targeting as a business, because as you look at '27 based upon our fleet plan, there's little to no sale-leaseback gains in there and we're targeting profitability in '27. And so as part of that from a unit cost perspective, getting our unit costs to trend when you adjust out the SLB to be trending favorable. James Dempsey I mean, in summary, Savi, like we're seeing real improvement in productivity in the business.

Take out the noise of sale and leaseback gains, and the airline's unit costs are actually improving. And so we're pretty happy with where we're going. Operator We will move on to the next question from John Godyn with Citigroup. John Godyn I wanted to just follow up on the long-term ASM growth, Savi's first question. And maybe you guys could just speak about the drivers and the contours of that growth over multiple years in the face of what could be rising profitability. When you think about 7% versus 10%, or even being above 10% at certain times, is that a margin trigger? Is that a return trigger?

You know, we may be in a period here where profitability is improving, and I think people are just trying to get a handle on the interplay of your capacity growth decisions with respect to that. James Dempsey Yes. John, I mean, look, if you look across the medium term for the airline, I mean, we established earlier this year that we wanted to have a fleet of around 170 aircraft and to keep the fleet steady over a 2-year period. And give the airline an opportunity to mature into its fleet. The airline in 2019 had 95 aircraft at the end of 2019, and it grew quite meaningfully in the next kind of 4 to 5 years.

And so giving the airline an opportunity to mature into itself and improve your operational performance is really foundational to actually running a good airline. And that's what we needed to do. So establishing a stable fleet over 2 years is very, very important to me. And so that discipline around fleet is something that we've invested a huge amount of time in getting right, and we think we're moving into the right place. You then take that fleet, and you know you have an order book that runs from 2028 through to 2033.

And we're trying to shape that order book and that drives growth in the airline after you get the airline back to productivity with flexibility of somewhere between 7% and 10%. I mean, if you push productivity hard, you can go above 10%. But we've got to see if that makes any sense. I think I like the idea of growing the airline in the high single-digits level in order to create a more stable revenue backdrop for the airline and to give us the ability to mature the airline without actually having an operational stress in the airline. And so, like, will it be lumpy?

Yes, there's periods probably through the next five years where you may have slightly higher than 7% or 8% and there may be periods where it's down around 5% or 6% growth. But in that kind of high single digits is where I'd like to see the airline in the medium term grow from where it is today. But I look at it, I mean, the fundamental thing -- sorry, John, the fundamental thing that we're doing at the moment, rather than looking beyond 2028, is really getting the airline in a really strong condition to add -- before it adds aircraft to the fleet. John Godyn No, I think that's great.

I think investors will appreciate kind of a thoughtful, disciplined message there. If I could just ask, one more on now that we have the benefit of hindsight, the sort of play-by-play in markets after the Spirit wind-down. I think I heard you guys talk about 4% capacity -- competitive capacity declines in your markets. That's a number that kind of implies to no surprise backfill maybe from other players. And maybe you could just kind of plug us into the competitive dynamic in the wake of it. Obviously you guys are benefiting considerably and doing a great job, but what's the competitive situation like? James Dempsey Look, I mean, this is the airline business in the U.S.

Like the field that we play on has 4 very dominant airlines that, you know, supply over 80% of the capacity or seats in the domestic market. And so it's extremely competitive. It continues to be competitive. What has happened is structural change on the back of 2 things, right? One is Spirit started restructuring the airline meaningfully in November last year. And so they cut their meaningful capacity. We also changed the way we were managing revenue. We moved to a much more disciplined revenue management strategy around the end of the fourth quarter and into the first quarter of this year.

And so those 2 things drove, like if you look at our RASM numbers going into Q1, they drove high-teen RASM improvement through the first quarter prior to Spirit's liquidation. And then obviously, on our last earnings call, we kind of laid out that we thought the removal or liquidation of Spirit would cause about a 3 to 5 point improvement in RASM. It's probably a little bit higher than that. And that allied to the ability to mitigate high oil prices has come really from that structural change that's happened in the last couple of months. But look, back to your earlier question, it's still a very competitive marketplace.

Operator Your next question comes from the line of Atul Maheshwari with UBS. Atul Maheswari Okay. Awesome. Sorry, I don't know what happened there. So first question, look, I mean you'll be lapping some big RASM numbers next year and the growth plans are moderate. So given the compares from this year, are you optimistic that you can drive positive RASM-CASM-ex spread ex the SLB gains next year? And if so, what would be the key drivers of that positive spread? James Dempsey I mean, we're not guiding into next year at this point, but look, the airline is on a very, very good path. We've moved the airline back to talking about profitability towards the end of this year.

And we have big investments going on into the onboard product and the operational performance of the airline. And so the introduction of Wi-Fi in early 2027, plus the rollout of our first-class seats across this winter, I think adds a significant amount of improvement in product offering and diversification in revenue that we will get in the airline. And I think that's very, very positive. And then we'll move into next year, obviously focused on unit costs. And so, you know, we're not forecasting next year, but the airline is certainly on the right trajectory to return to sustainable profitability. And that's what we're focused on today. Atul Maheswari Got it, that's helpful.

And you know, as my follow-up, the average daily aircraft utilization is currently a little under 10 hours a day. Where do you see this metric over the medium term and as you approach that medium-term level versus where you are currently? Is there a way to size the CASM-ex tailwind that this might provide? James Dempsey Our objective is to get the airline to around 11, 11.5 hours of utilization. And you'll have periods in the year where it's higher than that and other periods of the year where it's lower, depending on seasonality in the business. I mean, the airline today moving through Q3, I think has a utilization rate of just over 10 hours.

And so, you know, we are behind in terms of moving the airline back to a higher utilization given the spike in oil prices. We've effectively trimmed about 5 or 6 points in available capacity across the summer months to mitigate or manage through a high oil price environment. And we'll continue to be diligent in terms of how we deploy our fleet. And so I think what we're building is flexibility with an objective to get the airline to above 11 hours of utilization over the medium term. And that productivity obviously enables you to improve your unit cost output. Operator Your next question comes from the line of Scott Group with Wolfe Research.

Scott Group So the -- if I look back at Q2, you guys were talking about a 20% plus RASM and it ended up, up 28%. I guess this quarter you're saying 20% plus again, like any more directional color on where you think we could end up? Maybe thinking about it this way, like the last couple of years, like RASM's picked up a little bit on an absolute basis, Q2 to Q3. Is that something that is achievable again? Just any more sort of near-term RASM color. James Dempsey Look, there's a couple of things happening. We grew the airline at a slower pace in Q2, which contributes obviously to RASM, than we're growing in Q3.

We think the airline has structurally changed its revenue platform, which enables you to get to the RASM levels that we're at today. But we do have growth coming in Q3 that's lapping a very unproductive airline last year. And so sequentially, the growth level is not that dissimilar to what we should be doing seasonally as you're rolling into this portion of the year. But we think a reasonable RASM output, given the 18% growth in ASMs year-over-year, is just over 20%. And that's what we're seeing. Scott Group Makes sense. And then I just want to make sure I'm understanding your point about next year. So lapping the sale-leaseback.

I don't know, what's that, like a 4 or 5 point sort of CASM headwind? Is the point you're trying to make that you think like core CASM could be down year-over-year and so like the reported CASM's up but it's not up the full 4 to 5 points of what the sale-leaseback headwind is? Is that what you're trying to say? Mark Mitchell Yes, Scott, I think as you look at, you know, call it '25, right? I mean, you had $300 million in sale-leaseback gains. And so, you know, that on the ASM basis, probably $0.07 or $0.08, right, which would have put '25 close to $0.08 on a stage-adjusted basis.

And so as we look into '27, what we are expecting is that our costs are trending to be able to be roughly flat, excluding that impact. James Dempsey Look, Scott, it's dependent on growth, right, and inflation that you see across the airport world and other parts of the business. But yes, I mean, I think a CASM-ex fuel number to work off of somewhere in the mid-7s makes a lot of sense to me in the medium term. We're obviously challenging the business to get it lower than that. But I think that's a reasonable CASM ex fuel number to work on. Scott Group So, I'm just confused. I'm going to pop.

So, you're saying '25 ex-gains, you were over, you were 8 plus, but you're thinking you can get that down to mid-7s. Is that... Mark Mitchell Yes, I think when you adjust for the sale-leaseback gains, like for like, you were pushing $0.08 in '25. And to Jimmy's point, as you look at '27, a reasonable target is mid-7s. James Dempsey And look, it'll be plus or minus something in the mid-7s. I mean that we haven't done our budget yet for next year. We need to look across the inflation that exists in the industry and in the model. It could be slightly higher than that, could be slightly better than that. We just have to see.

Operator Your next question comes from the line of Ravi Shanker with Morgan Stanley. Ravi Shanker Just on the current environment out there, do you feel like there's still room for the consumer to accept more jet fuel price pass-throughs at industry level without seeing demand destruction? Or kind of what do you think is the current sense on elasticity? James Dempsey Ravi. I mean, I don't have a crystal ball, so it's difficult for us to predict what's going to happen in the future. I think there's been structural change in our revenue base, which I think is really positive for the airline.

What we're seeing in the booking engine at the moment is 20% plus RASM improvement into Q3 with slightly slower growth in Q4 than that but the year-over-year comps get a little bit harder. So look, we think we've put a really good structural change into the business with more disciplined revenue management. And obviously the actual change in structure of the competitive capacity that's happening is a big positive for Frontier, and we're benefiting from that and that's enabling us to mitigate high oil at the moment or largely mitigate high oil.

And we obviously want to get the airline back to profitability and overcome higher oil, and the volatility in price in oil is really difficult to predict as is the consumer's willingness to continue paying it. So we just don't have a crystal ball behind that. Robert "Bobby" Schroeter Bobby, I'll just add, look, the demand environment, we talked about a good demand-supply backdrop. The demand environment is strong, the fare environment is constructive. And then the demand environment isn't just strong for a fare, but for our increasingly diverse revenue base in terms of ancillary, et cetera. So there's a lot of good things that we see on the environment overall that's constructive for what you were discussing.

Ravi Shanker Understood, that makes sense. And maybe as a quick follow-up, if you can give us a little more detail around the new credit card agreement and specifically around sharing any color on the thinking behind the duration of the agreement here, kind of it's great that it's a long-term agreement. But at the same time, just given changing dynamics of loyalty out there, kind of do you guys consider doing maybe a shorter agreement and getting more bites at the apple? Robert "Bobby" Schroeter Yes, I mean, I'll sit there and say, I mean, Barclays is an incredible partner for us.

Frankly, you've seen the results in some of the things that we've transformed over the past year or 2, and there's a lot more to come in terms of capability to continue making our loyalty program the best loyalty program out there that people want to engage with, both on an acquisition side and the spend side. Our thought process on the length, frankly, again, we've got a partner that actually is leaning into this with us and getting us to a place where we think we can grow the overall loyalty pie by a fairly significant amount over the next few years. So we got what we wanted out of the deal.

And again, we think that partnering with Barclays is the best move we could make for the next decade. Operator Your next question comes from the line of Michael Linenberg with Deutsche Bank. Michael Linenberg Just maybe to follow up on the Barclays deal, the pre-purchase mileage facility, how much -- I saw that you were able to sell $175 million this quarter. How much capacity is left on that facility before you hit the cap? Mark Mitchell So, the facility and the new agreement has a max amount of $375 million. Where we sat at the end of the quarter was roughly $120 million.

So, you have plenty of runway right as we progress through the term of the agreement. Michael Linenberg Okay, great. Thanks, Mark. And then just maybe actually another question for you. Just on the sale-leaseback gains, it looked like the receipts per aircraft were down about 30%. Is that sort of 2 things. Is that the right run rate to use for the third quarter? And is that discount -- that's not a function of some sort of decline in asset values, right? That's probably more likely a function of just how the lease was restructured. Mark Mitchell Yes, so I appreciate the question. So yes, I think what you're seeing is a function of the 2 things.

So one, the mix, right? So we had 2 A320s and 4 A321s. And then keep in mind, from prior expectations, one tail did slip into the third quarter. Operator Your next question comes from the line of Jamie Baker with JPMorgan Securities LLC. . Jamie Baker So, look, the industry seems to have achieved new levels of pricing power. Frontier is obviously part of that. I assume you agree with the characterization. And I suppose a good fuel crisis brings out the best in everybody's pricing department and all that good stuff. My question though is what have your lessons learned been at Frontier that you think are unique to your passenger demographics?

So is it a subset of travelers that are comfortable paying higher fares? Is it a broad-based rising tide? Are you seeing travelers modify their booking behavior at all? I mean, look, obviously the goal is to assess the permanence of this, so understanding those building blocks and any nuances would be helpful. James Dempsey Yes, I mean, I think Jamie, I think it's quite simply, running a better airline operationally drives attachment from customers into the value that we provide from a pricing perspective to the customer base. I mean, we are certainly running a better operation this year. That's a meaningful change for the business where our completion factor has risen quite considerably.

I think we were fourth ranked in the industry across the first 6 months of the year. I mean, that's not unnoticed by our customer base. I think some of the tools that we're using from a pure revenue management perspective improves the output that we get and the discipline that we're able to provide in terms of the fares we're offering in the system and just managing that. And look, a big portion of the improvement that we saw in Q1 is really twofold. One was revenue management, that you saw much more discipline around the deployment of bundles and bundle pricing and the ability to do that through NDC and into the OTAs.

And I think that has been helpful to the business, but also pricing bundles in a more competitive fashion and creating attractiveness for the customer into our business has been beneficial to Frontier. And then you have structural change, right? And so you've had meaningful structural change across the industry that enables you to manage a higher oil price environment. So it's a lot of different things that are going on, but certainly a large part of it is our own discipline around revenue management. Jamie Baker Okay, perfect. And then just a quick follow-up, and I'll rephrase Mike's question, but a little bit more bluntly.

Given a similar number of deliveries in the third quarter, is $47 million for sale-leaseback gains a reasonable number to pencil into our models? Mark Mitchell Yes, I mean, I think, yes, somewhere in that neighborhood of, yes, call it, $50 million to $60 million. Operator Your next question comes from the line of Brandon Oglenski with Barclays. Brandon Oglenski Jimmy, I guess as you look into '27, I think you said you do expect the airline to be profitable. And I understand that you want to keep the fleet flat. But is there inherent utilization capacity increases that we should be expecting next year? Is that high single-digit growth rate the right one to pencil in?

James Dempsey Look, we haven't defined our plan for next year. I mean, we have the flexibility to grow the airline by high single digits if the market gives us the opportunity to. Like it really depends on what happens with the ongoing oil prices. As it stands at the moment, we would anticipate growing by somewhere between 5% and 8% next year. But we've got to go through a planning cycle and understand what we get to. We have the ability to obviously lower the productivity in the airline, but that will raise costs. And is that the right overall better answer for the airline?

We prefer to get the airline back into a productive state and we are probably about 5 or 6 points behind in terms of capacity from where we would like to be because of the oil price crisis. And so you should see some growth into next year in the high single digits and we'll work from there. And look, the lower the growth, the higher the unit cost, the higher the unit revenues we have to achieve to overcome it, it's not complicated. And we understand those metrics. We just have to see what we feel about the environment as we're rolling into 2027. We feel pretty good at the moment. Brandon Oglenski Okay.

And I mean, you guys have talked about first class for a while now. Starlink, I think, is a big announcement. How do you view these initiatives and new products really rolling in to results? Robert "Bobby" Schroeter How they're rolling in from a timeline perspective or how we're thinking about that? Brandon Oglenski Yes, and the potential revenue and margin upside from that. Robert "Bobby" Schroeter Yes, so from a first-class perspective, we are looking at what we've discussed before, sort of a fourth quarter rollout going into the early part of next year. On the Starlink portion, we anticipate starting in early 2027, and that rollout will continue through.

We're hopeful that would complete for summer, but you could see that moving through the year a little bit longer as well. As it pertains to revenue, look, we've talked about this before. I mean, first class was born in large part by our view on UpFront Plus and the value that, that brought. The paid load factor on that is now up over 80%, which is in line generally with what you see across the industry with other airlines' premium products. So we're showcasing that frankly, that segmentation and that desire for that product from our customer base, and frankly maybe even capturing folks that wouldn't have looked at us before without that is high.

And so as we progress into the first-class side, we're not necessarily giving a guide as to what we think that's worth, but we're going into it thinking that it's accretive beyond the premium products we have today. Operator Your next question comes from the line of Daniel McKenzie with Seaport Global. Daniel McKenzie One house cleaning question here, and then just a broader question. I guess for Mark. I'm curious how much cash you expect the additional lease returns to unlock and if it's included in the CapEx portion of the release today. And then if you could just remind me, would that filter through the cash flow from operations?

And I'm just trying to get at the cash that could be produced by the business this year. Mark Mitchell Yes, no, absolutely. So yes, so as you're looking at the CapEx, so our CapEx guide from what we put forward last time has not changed. When you think about the transactions that we've executed, the maintenance savings that we expect, and we do expect hundreds of millions of dollars of savings as you look over the coming years, that is going to flow through operating expenses. But as you look at the balance of this year, given those returns just occurred, what we had in our CapEx plan really would have incorporated any sort of CapEx that was anticipated.

So I think the right way to look at this is the go-forward. You're getting a material ownership cost benefit by the early return of these aircraft. Daniel McKenzie Yes, and then Jimmy, is it too early to talk about a return on invested capital in the medium term that exceeds the cost of capital? So just going back to an earlier question on the link between growth and profitability and what the North Star is that's behind how you're managing the company, because there's been a number of structural changes, of course, and it seems like these structural changes better position Frontier. James Dempsey Yes, Dan, I agree with you.

Look, what we're doing in the airline is focusing initially on the fundamentals, right? Cost, good revenue management, putting the right fleet size in place, establishing the network to support the fleet that we have, and driving a better balance sheet and liquidity into the airline. Like we're very disciplined about those items and getting the airline on the right path from that perspective. We've got to adapt to the field that we play on. It's changed post-COVID. You have significant loyalty cash flows coming directly off credit card programs that fund a large portion of basic economy in the domestic airline business, and it's something that we're quite immature in.

And so we've looked at the business in the context of our loyalty program and the immaturity of our loyalty program in comparison to the rest of the industry. And we think there's a huge opportunity for Frontier to move the dial on loyalty. But you've got to run a good operation in order to do that. You've got to invest in the operation and improve the performance of the business and enhance your product. And so we're doing all of those things, and Bobby mentioned like Wi-Fi, first-class seats. We're looking at more segmentation around premium seats in the cabin. We'll talk to you guys later on the year probably about that.

But certainly it's with the purpose of bringing the airline back to sustainable profitability. And that's the real focus of the airline. We're not giving long-term targets yet in the business. What we're managing at the moment is bringing the airline back to those core fundamentals I mentioned that needs to happen in order to have a strong platform and foundation to grow the airline and have discussions around growth versus return on invested capital. But certainly that's the objective in the airline, is to get the airline back to really generating operating cash flows and cash flow production in the airline over the long-term. And so that's where we are.

We've made real progress this year on doing a lot of that, but we still got a long way to go. We're probably about a year out from having an operation that we are really comfortable with. We have made real progress, but we still have a lot of work to do. We have to establish the premium products into the airline and allow those to season into the airline and get the customer base aware of those new products that we have and excited about them. But certainly we're very excited about the path we're on. Daniel McKenzie If I can just squeeze one final one in here.

Just given that reference to premium products and getting those up to maturity, I'm just wondering if you can share that revenue uplift. Like what percent of revenues are they today and what would you expect that premium revenue bucket to look like, say, as a percent of total once they're up to maturity? James Dempsey I mean, we don't have Wi-Fi, first-class seats on board the aircraft at the moment. So, we don't have any revenue linked to them at the moment. So we'll come back to you in time when we launch these to give you a sense of the revenue uplift that comes into Frontier on the back of them.

But you can see structural change -- you're thinking in the existing -- we don't disclose that. Robert "Bobby" Schroeter UpFront Plus, I mean, we talked about, I just stated what our paid load factor is on that above 80%, which is effectively in line with what other carriers -- legacy carriers get in their premium products, which frankly showcases the want from our customer base for premium products. That gives us the confidence to go into, for example, first class, and frankly, what Jimmy was saying, that we're reviewing additional premium seating. And those are things that, again, we'll provide more information in the coming months on, but it gives us the confidence to go and look at that.

We believe there's a lot of opportunity there, not only on the revenue side, but frankly, it helps provide the products and services that different segments are looking for. And frankly, with some of these things like premium seating, Wi-Fi, et cetera, certain customer segments that our price alone wasn't able to compete for. So there is opportunity to go capture customers that we haven't been able to be in the consideration set for before with this as well. Operator Your next question comes from the line of Duane Pfennigwerth with Evercore ISI.

Duane Pfennigwerth Just on the fleet, can you confirm that the fleet is basically fixed now through year-end 2027, or are there A321 lease deals that could bring you back to the table if the economics were attractive enough? James Dempsey There's always an openness within Frontier to look at lease deals if the economics make sense. Yes. But from what we see on the horizon, we think we are nearing the conclusion of some of the fleet opportunities that come. Maybe some stuff that will be available to tinker with, but I think we're largely getting to the point where we like the fleet that we have. We like the transition from the A320neo into the A321neo.

It gives us flexibility around, particularly around the interior cabin of the aircraft and also, obviously, the operating cost benefit that the aircraft provides to Frontier. And so we like that mix. If more opportunities arise, we'll look at them, but as you said, Duane, the economics have to make sense. Duane Pfennigwerth Okay, thanks. And then second question, and apologies if we're geeking out on this one a little, but just curious how you define competitive capacity and specifically the set of routes. Is it essentially capacity on routes that you've served for over a year, or does it consider newer routes that you serve for less than a year? Robert "Bobby" Schroeter Yes, both.

Think of it as a snapshot, so we're looking at what the network is comparatively to what our competitors within those routes within the markets specifically, and then taking that snapshot versus previous year, if we're looking at it year-over-year. Does that answer your question? Duane Pfennigwerth Okay, and if you have it, what is the like mix of new routes less than a year? Like how has that been changing and trending over time? James Dempsey Yes, I mean, as we pulled the airline down from a fleet perspective, we've added a little bit of frequency into the airline, like a modest amount of frequency into the airline.

And so I think the immature markets are considerably below what they would have been historically. So historically, we may have been running somewhere between 25% and 35% immature markets or less than a year old. We're in the low teens in maturity at the moment. Operator Your next question comes from the line of Christopher Stathoulopoulos from Susquehanna International Group. Christopher Stathoulopoulos So the comment that there's been a structural change in the revenue platform for the airline, and I appreciate that. Obviously a lot going on here with segmentation, loyalty, premium products, but there's also, obviously, as you know, been a structural change here in cost as we think about the U.S. certainly here.

And so as we think about the flow-through here, and this is obviously not a '26, perhaps back half of '27, '28 event, is it fair that as these initiatives mature we should think that on a per-flight segment basis or a hub basis that you're going to be in a position where these changes are ultimately ROIC accretive across the system, meaning not in markets where perhaps there are fewer competitors and different economics, more so in markets where there are larger airlines with considerably different hub or point economics?

James Dempsey I think it will be a mix of markets, but certainly the objective is to invest in loyalty and premium products that actually improves the revenue output of the airline. I mean, one of the key principles that we're operating the airline under is actually improving loyalty with the objective of creating a more stable revenue base for the airline. And so product segmentation, we've seen other airlines obviously do this very successfully here and premiumization of their product. I mean, that's certainly something that we've learned from other airlines and we think that will be accretive to Frontier. Christopher Stathoulopoulos I guess I'll ask it a different way.

So if I were to look at your top 25 or top 50 routes and rank order those based on your stage-length adjusted TRASM, the top quartile, let's say obviously margins are going to look better because of these revenue initiatives here, but as we move lower, should we expect a meaningful change in the margin profile, given the I guess, the cost convergence, cost harmonization, however you want to describe that dynamic as all of these initiatives start to really materialize in '27 and beyond? James Dempsey Well, Chris, we still have a meaningful cost advantage over the industry given the way we operate the airline and the focus on cost discipline within the airline.

And so what we're really, if you look at it, what we're providing is incremental value to the customers at really low fares. We think that's going to be accretive, irrespective of whether it's on the top 50 or the bottom 50 routes in our network. We think the product resonates with the customer base and the product changes. You just have to look at UpFront Plus. We launched this over 2 years ago where we blocked the middle seat and the front 2 rows of the aircraft, and it has significantly increased the revenue for the real estate that exists at that part of the aircraft.

And Bobby has given you an insight into the load factors that we're achieving, but those are driving significant increase in the revenue for that portion of the aircraft. And so it encourages us to do more of that, and it's not necessarily focused on specific routes. It's typically network-wide. Christopher Stathoulopoulos Okay, and just a quick follow-up here as we do our own math or bottoms-up build on FY '27 capacity. Any color you can give on how we should think about the net active fleet for next year? And then the -- I guess, if we decompose that stage gauge and departures. James Dempsey Yes, we'll have to come back to you on that.

There's a lot of work going on in the background around modifying the existing fleet and aircraft coming out of service, particularly across the first quarter and the back end of this year. So look, we'll have to come back to you on what the inactive fleet would look like going into next year. But it shouldn't be that dissimilar to this year with a few lines of flying stripped out in order to facilitate the modification of the cabin. Operator We have reached the end of the Q&A session. I will now turn the call back to Jimmy Dempsey for brief closing remarks. James Dempsey Yes, thanks guys for attending the call.

I mean, as you can see, we're pretty happy with the direction that we're going in the business. We still have work to do to complete some of the things that we laid out earlier in the year. We're really excited about the product updates that we're bringing to the airline, particularly the introduction of high-speed Wi-Fi. We think that's a big product change for the airline and very complementary to the incremental or the addition of first-class seats. And so we're very focused on providing a very low value to our customer set. If you guys have any further questions, please do reach out to either me or the team.

We'd be delighted to clarify any issues that you have and appreciate your support. Thanks very much guys. Operator This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.