Shares of beer giant Molson Coors Brewing Co (NYSE:TAP) returned 11.1% in June, according to data provided by S&P Global Market Intelligence, after telling investors it still thinks 2018 guidance is within reach.
The big beer business, in general, is struggling to fight off smaller brewers and that's weighing on Molson Coors and its competitors. Coming into June shares were down 24.5% for the year, but management eased some concerns by saying they were "committed" to 2018 guidance.
Free cash flow is expected to be $1.5 billion, plus or minus 10%, and cost cuts are expected to be $210 million. But with volumes and sales already down in the first quarter, it'll be tough to show much long-term growth in a competitive market.
Operating conditions may be better than expected this year, but they're still not good for Molson Coors. Craft beer is where the growth is and smaller, local companies is where the money is being made right now. As much as investors may be cheering the guidance commitment, I don't like the longer term trends for big beer and that's what will keep me out of the stock.