How the OPEC+ Deal Could Impact the Market

In this episode of Industry Focus: Energy, Nick Sciple and Motley Fool contributor Jason Hall chat about news from the oil industry, answer listeners' questions, and talk about some recession-resistant stocks for your watch list.

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This video was recorded on April 9, 2020.

Nick Sciple: Welcome to Industry Focus. I'm Nick Sciple. It's Thursday and we are talking Energy; our guest today is Jason Hall. Big news this morning, we talked about last week President Trump tweeted about some rumors that the Saudis and Russia could be cutting oil production. Well, today we got some official news on that after an OPEC+ meeting this morning, which I think still maybe ongoing, with reports suggesting that there is an agreement to cut 10 million barrels per day of oil. Jason, just high-level, what are your thoughts on this news so far?

Jason Hall: Depends on where you're counting how much oil is actually being cut. So, it's a good sign. And I think it was kind of inevitable we were going to see some cuts.

Tomorrow, I think, we've got the G20 energy ministers are talking, so this is going to be ongoing for a little bit, but I think the big thing that investors need to take away from this is the market is still going to be just massively, massively oversupplied and it's going to be months and months of oversupply.

I mean, this 10-million-barrel cut, I don't know, I think, we figure, that's less than half of what the demand destruction alone should be. You know, Delta Airlines said their revenue is going to be knocked down 90%. Jets use a lot of fuel. Nobody in America is commuting to work to work anymore.

I just read that something, like, a third of American renters have not paid their rent in April. Yeah, this doesn't change the thesis. [laughs] It's going to get ugly.

Sciple: Right. So, this cut of 10 million barrels per day, to your point on, depends where you measure from. At least for the Saudis, they're cutting 4 million barrels per day or at least have agreed to. And this is off their record production levels in April, so it's worth noting that when this price war first started, the Saudis announced that they were going to bump oil production up to around 13 million barrels per day. If you net out those increases of production from what they agreed to cut, we're looking at around 1 million to 1.5 million barrels per day cut from where we started the year.

The Russians have announced they're going to cut 2 million barrels per day, this is against a backdrop of, as you mentioned, if you look at the projections of the demand destruction we're going to look at, it's anywhere from 20 million barrels per day to as high as 35 million barrels. So, we're looking at tens of millions of barrels each day that need to go into storage or need to go somewhere. And the market is going to have to adjust for that.

One of the questions that I have around this cut is, to what extent are we going to see compliance? I think in the past, Russia, in particular, has been notorious for saying they're going to cut and then not necessarily complying. When you look at that, any thoughts there on how much of this is narrative and how much of this is going to be actual action by these countries?

Hall: So, I think we're probably going to see a little more action in this environment than we have when things are a little bit more normal. Just simply because, I mean, the demand destruction is so bad that I think even Russia is going to run into problems with where to put the oil. You know, I've read some really interesting things over the past couple of weeks that talked about the tactics that Saudi Arabia has used over the past roughly month to really -- because this started out, of course, with Saudi Arabia really, kind of, going after Russia's production and the logistics of the way oil gets moved. Saudi Arabia really targeted flooding in markets that Russia tends to target to really paint them into a corner with nowhere to put their oil. And the follow-on effect to that is, you know, here in the U.S. we've seen demand destruction create a situation where U.S. producers, by mid-May, are going to be in the same boat, there's going to be nowhere to put all the oil. So, I think we're going to see a little more of these commitments being made, [laughs] simply because there's nowhere to put the oil.

But I mean, the bottom-line is that the Saudi Arabia's tack under the OPEC+ group, which includes Russia as a key producer, their thought process in the past has been, "Hey, just getting Russia to say we're going to cut is a stabilizing factor whether the cuts actually happen or not." But yeah, I think if you look at where Saudi Arabia is going to be, I think they've agreed to 8.3 million barrels a day in production, and that's about 1.5 million barrels down from where they were under the regime that expired at the end of March. So, the big 4 million barrels they're talking about, as you alluded to, that's from their production today, where we think that they probably are today. So, that's kind of where that is.

But again, I want to put some context on the demand destruction that we're seeing and what 10 million barrels really means. So, a month ago, or a couple weeks ago, we were hearing from some of the big oil traders that give a lot of information that the market uses to price in oil. Some of the expectations were that 20 million barrels a day decline, and now the numbers are getting bigger. But 20 million barrels a day, that's essentially what Russia and Saudi Arabia combined to produce on an average day last year. So, we are talking about the No. 2 and No. 3 oil producers in the world, behind the U.S., all of their production is falling off the market in demand. And like you said, there's even that up to 35 million barrels.

So, here's the thing, so you take 10 million off the market. And again, that's 10 million from today, [laughs] so it's really more like 6 million barrels or 7 million barrels, if you start paring things back and looking at prior production levels. I mean, that's a bare fraction of the demand destruction that we're going to see.

So, think about the carryon effects of that. So, think about the U.S. We're more or less on track to be out of storage in the U.S. by mid-May. So, what that means is that producers right now that are already cash-starved because oil prices have fallen essentially 60%, in some cases far more than 60%, they're going to get another hit when some of these producers are going to be forced to shut in their production. In other words, they can't just cut CapEx and let the decline curve at the wells be the guide to push their production down, they're going to actually have to go turn off the taps, physically turn off the taps, cut off their cash flows even more. Because there's literally nowhere in the pipe for that oil to go.

So, the bottom-line is that, again, I don't think it really changes the thesis or the trajectory. You know, it's going to lessen the pain for the big oil majors, it's going to lessen the pain down the road. But let's get through April, let's get through May, let's get into June, the Summer. Ideally, maybe the economy can start to open up, people can start driving to work again. Some people, again, not everybody, some people. Airline travel might start to open up a little bit, not much, because, you know, you got a lot of people that spend money to go on vacations that aren't going to have money to spend to go on vacations, that are going to be concerned about international travel and being in a tube five miles in the air with 200 other people that could be sick. I mean, there's going to be a lot of cultural things.

So, it's not like somebody is going to flip the switch on June 1^st, and oil demand is going to shoot up another 20 million barrels and all the guys in West Texas are going to crank up their rigs and just start pumping oil again. There's going to still be tens of millions, maybe hundreds of millions of barrels of oil around the world in tanker ships and in storage facilities that's still going to have to be consumed before production can start to recover. And there's a lot of independent producers, there's a lot of independent service companies, the guys that drill the wells, the guys that deliver the frac sand and do all those other things that are going to run out of money.

You know, if you're a banker in West Texas, you're not answering the phone when the executive from the already leveraged independent oil producer calls you. So, I think things are going to get worse before they get better for the industry. And the cut is good, it's a good sign, but I mean, for me, it doesn't really change the thesis.

Sciple: Yeah, I agree with you completely. You look at some of these names, I've just charted a few of them, Continental Resources up 56% in the past five days; Occidental Petroleum, up almost 30%; Antero Resources over a double in the past five days. The thesis for these companies have not changed. Even before anyone had ever heard of coronavirus, these companies were challenged, heavily indebted, not producing cash flow. This is not thesis-changing for these companies. This isn't a time to go look at, "Oh, the E&P companies, they're going to rally back now." This is an area to avoid.

I've said this in the past, I think the only clear beneficiaries from what's going on right now in the oil market, as you mentioned, Jason, are these tanker companies. And even then, you know, they're notoriously volatile and tough to invest in. This is just a really, really tough area to be involved in right now you know it. [laughs] And there is still some resistance from some of these producers to cut production. They're saying, "We want to let the decline curves roll-off," that sort of thing. I think Occidental Petroleum specifically has called out, "We don't want the government to limit the amount we can produce." So, we'll just have to see what these guys -- this is not a time to jump into oil stocks by any stretch of the imagination, I just want to reiterate that as much as possible.

Now, when it comes to jumping in oil stocks, though, [laughs] there was news as well yesterday also from the Saudis. Their public investment fund had invested $1 billion in a basket of European oil majors including Total, Equinor, Shell and Eni. So, Jason, when you see this, obviously, the Saudis do have some inside information here on what cuts were going to come down the line, throwing $1 billion into these major oil companies, what is the reaction to that?

Hall: So, a couple things. The Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund has what, $300 billion or so in investments. So, that's a third of a percent [33.33%] it's not like they've gone big here. Yeah, $1 billion is big, but [laughs] as a percentage of those assets, it's not a ton of money.

And, you know, one thing is too is that over the past few years, there's the idea that the sovereign wealth fund was going to focus more on technology and help, kind of, be a driver to start creating the future of what the Saudi economy is going to look like. And it's still doing that to a large extent, but here's the bottom-line, if you look in the oil patch, if you're an investor, right now is a great time to focus on what you understand and what you know, because if you know a certain business or a certain market or a certain industry well, now's the time you can find the best bargains, the best opportunities to grow your returns when the market is down. And I think what they're doing is they're saying, look, Shell is down by half. It's a great business, they have a massive amount of cash, they have a strong natural gas business that's still going to be pretty viable even as this plays out, the petrochemicals business is pretty good and we probably know what their production costs are better than a lot of people that work for Shell know. So, they're saying, you know, we can buy an asset at half price and in a few years, we're going to realize some value there. So, I think that's part of it.

I think the other part of it is, notably, you don't see ExxonMobil, you don't see Chevron, you don't see any American super-majors as part of these investments. The relationship -- you know, U.S. buys a ton of oil from the Middle East, not as much as we used to, but Europe buys a lot more. So, I think that's more about, kind of, political signaling of where their interests are than anything else.

But I don't think it really represents a major strategic shift for how Saudis are going to invest this money. I think it's just a smart tactical move to take advantage of the beaten down assets that are the ones that are going to generate positive returns with the least amount of risk from the sector. So, I think that's an important thing to remember.

As an investor, if you're just dead-set on owning something in the oil patch and taking advantage of the downturn -- and actually, I wrote about this; I wrote an article called Are Oil Stocks Cheap Or Value Traps, that we just ran yesterday, and I suggest you to take a look at it. But it highlights the fact that right now, in this segment of the business, the best move to make is to find the companies that can avoid failing, you want to protect the downside first. So, the strong, well-capitalized, the businesses that have the best access to capital, that have some diversity in their operations. So, you avoid those unforced errors by investing in companies that, frankly, may fail because they run out of money. Then you can capture returns. So, I think that's essentially what they're doing.

Sciple: Yeah, one of the things I'll mention, we mentioned the importance of the narrative earlier. As you're saying the Russians will cut, even though they might not necessarily comply, you can see how this $1 billion investment is incredibly powerful for the narrative that oil prices are going to be supported and that sort of thing. Just that report that the Saudis are buying these oil stocks, I think, gave a lot of people the signal that, hey, maybe I can go in and buy. So, whether those companies across the board share those characteristics you mentioned of their balance sheet to survive, that sort of thing, but as well, I think this move is very powerful for the narrative that the Saudis are trying to put out as well.

One other big investment and we may not have deep thoughts here, but it is quite interesting, is the Saudis bought an 8.2% of the common stock outstanding in Carnival Corp, the cruise line. Obviously, the cruise lines have been suffering majorly as a result of this coronavirus. A lot of these, you know, virus-laden ships floating around the oceans across the world and that's driven down a lot of the stock prices. The Saudis jumping into Carnival, [laughs] well, what do you think about that move, Jason?

Hall: I have very little of a value to say here. [laughs] First of all, cruise lines, airlines, hotels, these are all industries that are just getting pummeled right now. And it's going to take some time. I think you're going to see, you know, a lot of hotels are probably going to bounce back faster than the others, because it's cheaper, it's a more important business spend where businesses are going to start spending for travel a little bit more. But I think the cruise lines are really just going to have a tough time bouncing back.

So, you think about, so what did they invest, like, $600 million, $800 million, somewhere around there. Again, it's a bare fraction of [laughs] the Saudi Wealth Fund. And Carnival is one of the bigger more well-known brands in that space. So, you know, maybe call it a flyer. [laughs] I think there's still too much risk. Yeah, it's not a space I'm looking to go after.

Sciple: Yeah, it's not a space I would pile in. [laughs] And I wouldn't necessarily use the Saudi Public Investment Fund as my signal of places to buy into. If you look at their track record, it hasn't necessarily been the best in the world, but quite interesting that somebody is believing in a significant way in Carnival.

The other big move, and this is away from the energy space, but Warren Buffett, the news came out last week that he had sold down his stake in Delta and Southwest. Now this is interesting, anytime that Buffett buys or sells a stock, it's interesting, what is particularly interesting is this came, I believe, less than a month or just over a month after Warren Buffett had increased his stakes in Delta. So, when you see Warren Buffett selling the airlines here, reaction to that?

Hall: I think the biggest lesson investors can take away from this is, even the best investors in the world are subject to unforeseen events and can get it wrong sometimes. Sure, a month or so ago, six weeks ago, you could say, well, this coronavirus thing is going to be pretty bad, but I think the full implications were really hard to really understand in terms of what it would mean for the airline industry.

So, the point is that, if it's going to happen to Buffett, it's going to happen to you, and that's OK. So, don't get too caught up in being precise with your investments and thinking you have to get everything, everything right.

Now, in terms of the selling, it's a couple of things. Again, I'm just spitballing this a little bit. I think part of it could be, there's different rules for different industries for owning more than 10% of a company, in terms of what you have to disclose, but also, I know, with the banking industry, you have to make these disclosures about being a passive investor. And it really limits your ability to have an influence. And so that's one of the reasons that Berkshire has routinely sold shares of Wells Fargo over the past few years, is to stay below that 10% threshold, because Wells Fargo has been aggressively repurchasing shares. So, Berkshire's had to sell to stay below that threshold.

So, I can't help but wonder if -- and, again, it may not be Buffett, it could be Ted or Todd who manage between the two of them, probably, $40 billion or $50 billion of Berkshire investor capital now. Just maybe they're thinking, yeah, we really need to stay below that 10% threshold, especially if maybe there's going to be government bailout money or anything like that. I mean, there just could be other implications and they may just think, it may just be a safer place right now to stay below those thresholds right now. So, just making a guess.

Sciple: Yeah, it's worth noting that that 10% threshold is the only reason we know about this transaction at all, because if you're a 10% or greater holder, regulations require you to disclose sales. And for all other transactions, we're not going to know what Berkshire Hathaway has done until 45 days after the end of the quarter when their 13F filing comes out. So, that should be around May 15^th, I believe, when we'll know all the rest of the transactions that they've done that have taken place.

I will say one thing about Buffett, selling -- you mentioned some valuable lessons for that, when it comes to not always being right. And also, it's admitting when you're wrong. And I think Buffett has done a good job of that in the past. If you look at his IBM investment, you look at a number of other investments he's made in the past, he's not afraid to admit when he's wrong and cut his losses and move on and redeploy that capital to more attractive opportunities. And I think that's something that we can learn from as individual investors as well.

I want to move on to a couple listener questions. We got a number of questions about the Brookfield Infrastructure Corporation (BIPC 0.84%) conversion or spinout that came in the past recent week. So, reader question from Ed, Ed says, "I've been a Motley Fool subscriber since 2005, and I've been a listener of all of your podcasts since day one. Thanks for the great podcasts." Well, thank you, Ed.

He said he's owned Brookfield Infrastructure Partners (BIP 2.82%) for a while now, originally bought a small portion during the Financial Crisis and has added more in recent years. His question is on the unit split that just happened in March. So, are investors supposed to receive one share of Brookfield Infrastructure Corporation for every nine shares of Brookfield Infrastructure Partners they own.

Jason, what are the details of this spinoff, why is it happening?

Hall: Yeah. So, that's exactly how it reads and Brookfield explains it. For every nine units of the BIP, Brookfield Infrastructure Partners an investor owns, they'll receive one share of BIPC, which is Brookfield Infrastructure Corporation. And any fractional shares you get that paid out in cash. So, the short version is that the motivation behind this spinoff is that Brookfield Infrastructure Partners is a publicly traded partnership, often you'll read about it, and it's called an MLP. It's not exactly an MLP, but for our purposes, it's basically the same thing.

There's more limits on who will and who can invest in an MLP. Some institutional investors have rules in place, often for tax reasons. A lot of indices do not include MLP's. [laughs] And again, honestly, a lot of times because of the tax implications, if there are ETFs or mutual funds that track those indices, some brokerages won't even let investors buy MLP units inside retirement accounts, because of tax consequences or something called UBTI, it stands for, Unrelated Business Taxable Income. There's situations where you could actually end up having to pay income tax on an investment inside of your retirement account with these partnerships.

So, by creating BIPC, Brookfield sidesteps all those tax implications and the other things that limit the investor pool. So, this should increase the size of the investor pool. They consider the corporate BIPC to be an appropriate investment. Now, by doing it as a spinoff and awarding existing investors an equivalent stake in shares of the BIPC, it makes it a nontaxable event. So, it's just a little bit cleaner to do it that way. Each share of BIPC is economically equivalent to BIP. So, dollar-for-dollar they're essentially the same thing.

The difference is mostly under tax consequences. If you own BIP now, you're getting the dreaded K-1, it's just a complicated tax document, it's kind of a pain in the butt when tax season comes. It's not a lot of fun to deal with. Versus the 1099 that BIPC will send out, that's like the dividends that you get from, like, if you own Coca-Cola or Nucor Corporation or something like that. So, it's a lot cleaner, it's easier. It also means that all those problems with owning it inside of a retirement account, should go away. So, that's the short version right there.

It's something that a lot of people have been kind of asking for for a long time. Brookfield has been steadfast that its partnerships are fine to own in retirement accounts because they don't pay the UBTI. But, again, some brokerages, my wife's Merrill Lynch retirement account can't buy [laughs] BIP inside of that. So, it's going to be nice now for me, personally, to be able to take advantage of it.

Sciple: Right. And this is something Brookfield is doing across its portfolio. I mean, I know they did the Brookfield Property REIT to go with BPR MLP, I think they're doing the same thing with Brookfield Renewable, is that correct?

Hall: Yeah, Brookfield Renewable Partners that's BEP, they're planning to do the same thing later this year. The Brookfield Renewable and TerraForm Power (TERP)ticker TERP. Brookfield Renewable already owned almost 70% or TerraForm Power, they just struck a deal to buy the rest of it. And TerraForm Power is just a corporation, so there were some substantial, potential implications for existing TerraForm Power shareholders, if they did not do something like this.

So, later this summer, once the TerraForm Power deal is ready to close, they're going to do the same thing with Brookfield Renewable Partners. I think it's a good move for everyone. I know we had one of our listeners, Brian, asked about trading out with Brookfield Infrastructure, his MLP is BIP units, and buying BIPC shares. And I think that's reasonable -- I'm planning to do that in my solo 401(k) simply because I don't want to have to deal with the K-1. So, you know, without having trading fees, you don't have this much friction and cost to do it. So, I'm planning on doing it.

Since it's inside the retirement account, the capital gains, I won't have to pay any taxes. So, yeah, I think it's a reasonable move for people to consider, just shifting over to BIPC inside of those retirement vehicles. Now, if you own it in a taxable account, I think you got to be careful about deciding just to sell the partnership to flip it into the corporate shares, because if you've made money on the share price, you're still going to have to pay taxes on your capital gains. So, everybody should think about those applications before you do anything.

Sciple: We can't give personal tax advice, but I think in that case, definitely talk to a tax advisor to figure out your potential tax liability and how that could affect you.

I know Brookfield Infrastructure is a personal holding of yours, Jason. When you look at it right now, this is a stock that sold-off almost 50%, has rallied back now in the past month or so. When you look at the stock today, it's still attractive at this price?

Hall: I think so. It's still down about 20% or so. It's one of the few businesses in my personal portfolio, Brookfield Infrastructure and Brookfield Renewable, that I really look at as, kind of, buy just about any time investments. The people at Brookfield are so good at allocating capital. These are recession-resistant businesses, they generate really steady cash flows, they're really good at getting great returns, they're disciplined about allocating and reinvesting capital.

I mean, anytime you can buy it 20% less than the price it traded for a month-and-a-half ago, I think it's worth buying.

Sciple: Yeah, you mentioned recession-resistant businesses. It reminds me, and I know you're working on an article about some recession-resistant companies. I know a lot of our listeners are probably looking for stocks that they can buy, and kind of set and forget during these uncertain times. Other than the Brookfield ones, any companies that come to mind for you that folks should be considering?

Hall: Yeah. So, you know, if you start dabbling a little bit outside of the -- when you talk recession-resistant, you have to get out of the oil patch, first of all. A lot of those businesses are going to struggle. I think it's also worth looking at NextEra Energy Partners (NEP -1.13%), it is a good one to look at. NextEra Energy, its parent company, is a major utility. They own Florida Power & Light. NextEra Energy Partners produces a lot of wind and solar energy and owns some natural gas assets. So, again, those are businesses that are pretty good.

I think one to look at is Waste Management (WM -0.52%). Our colleague, Tyler Crowe, has touted that business. Yeah, it's going to feel some impact with so many businesses shuttered right now. This is just a kind of a weird one-off event, but I think the vast majority of its revenues and cash flows should prove pretty steady and stable. And it's definitely the kind of business that you want to, kind of, own on both sides of a major downturn.

What about you, I'm sure you've got one or two you want to kick out there, Nick?

Sciple: Oh, gosh! yeah, so I would say. [laughs] You put me on the spot.

Hall: Did I put you on the spot?

Sciple: Put me on the spot. No. So, I would say right now, I always think -- you know, you mentioned that other Brookfield partnerships, I think Brookfield Asset Management would be one to look at; you know, gets exposure to all those.

One that I like, that's maybe a little bit more niche, kind of, a financial company, is Broadridge Financial (NYSE: BR), ticker BR. It is a technology company but primarily in the financial space. They do electronic delivery of proxy statements and other kind of regulatory filings that companies have to send out to shareholders. They're required to by law. And they really dominate that segment of the market. They also have a product that has gotten some traction, obviously, in recent weeks for remote shareholder meetings.

So, this is a business that has a dominant position providing a service that companies are required to deliver. Whether or not the economy is good or not, if you're a publicly traded company, you must deliver these regulatory filings.

And so, they have a strong position there. I think it's a company that's going to do pretty well in this environment. 2% dividend yield. It's had some decent growth over the past several years. So, that's one I would be paying attention to. So, I think those are the couple -- the Brookfield companies and I think Broadridge is one.

And I always like MasterCard, that's one. You could say that it is going to be affected by the recession in some capacity with spending going down. However, we're probably going to see more spending go digital. And I think this is a company with great management and it's got a massive tailwind behind it. So, I think any of the payments' companies. So, I think MasterCard is probably my favorite one of the big two, between Visa and MasterCard.

Hall: It's interesting you say that. I agree with everything you've said. I think it's also just such a cash efficient business that even with declines and people going to stores and swiping cards and that kind of stuff, it's still going to be a cash cow. And I think that the interesting thing about what's happening, I think in a lot of places where cash is being king, this helps accelerate the shift to electronic and cashless payment. So, I think in the long-run, this could be an interesting catalyst.

I'm going to throw one more out there. I'm going to throw one more. We talked a lot about Warren Buffett, we talked a lot about Berkshire. Berkshire Hathaway trades for 1.1X book value, it's down about 15%. Its stock portfolio is down a lot more than 15%. So, I think there's some pent-up value from a business that also has a massive hoard of cash that is probably going to deploy a substantial amount of, this year.

Actually, I sold my Berkshire stake about three years ago. It's one of my top two or three that I'm looking at buying right now. And I think it's one people should really be thinking about.

Sciple: Yeah, I think that's a good one. I'll give you one last one that I think is interesting. [laughs] And it's pretty recession-resistant, is Masimo. So, Masimo is the company that makes these sensors for these oxygenation sensors. When you go to the doctor's office and they clip the thing on your finger that tests your blood-oxygen level, that's a company that has been taking market share in that sector for years and years and years. Whenever these devices, the older devices leave their useful life, Masimo captures much of the replacement market.

And people are probably going to the hospital more than ever these days, but regardless of that, it's a company that has a dominant share in this really important component. So, that's one that's been on my watchlist, have not bought yet, but that is my fault. I should have owned it a long time ago.

Hall: Fair enough. I'll leave you with the last word on the picks, Nick, nice job.

Sciple: Well, thanks. I do my best. Alright, folks, that's all for us today.

Just a reminder that The Motley Fool is closed on Friday for the Good Friday market holiday. So, there will be no Friday tech show this week, but check back on Monday, Jason Moser will be back for another episode of Industry Focus Financials.

Jason, as always, thank you for joining us and have a great Easter weekend.

Hall: Same to you my friend. Have a good happy Good Friday, everybody. Talk to you soon.

Sciple: As always, people on the program may own companies discussed on the show, and The Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against the stocks discussed, so don't buy or sell anything based solely on what you hear.

Thanks to Austin Morgan for his work behind the glass. For Jason Hall, I'm Nick Sciple, thanks for listening and Fool on!