Decker Outdoor (NYSE:DECK) has clawed its way back from the hole it fell into at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, rising 77% to approximately $140 per share. 

That's still well below the all-time high of $203 per share it hit in mid-February, and if Pivotal Research analyst Mitch Kummetz is correct in his analysis, while there's still some upside left, it's not near what he thought before the bottom fell out of the retail market.

Woman wearing Ugg boots

Image source: Decker Outdoor.

More carnage to come

Kummetz lowered his price target on the owner of brands such as Ugg and Teva from the $217 per share level he set it back in January to $165 today, a 24% drop because the worst of the pandemic is still to come for the footwear company as it prepares to report fiscal fourth-quarter earnings.

Previously, Kummetz pegged Deckers to post sales at the high end of management's forecasted range of between $392 million and $402 million, but Thefly.com says he subsequently lowered that outlook by 14% because that "is in the ballpark of what we've seen from other companies this earnings season."

That puts Decker's sales around $345 million, but the analyst believes the weight of the pandemic will actually fall on fiscal first-quarter results due to the number of order cancellations and company-owned store closures.

The silver lining is Kummetz' price target still sees 17% upside from here.