Roku (NASDAQ:ROKU) stock is up 30% in 2020 and has nearly doubled from the lows it hit in March when the COVID-19 pandemic struck, but an analyst at investment firm Stephens thinks the streaming platform has peaked.

Kyle Evans downgraded Roku shares to equal weight from his previous overweight rating, and slashed his price target by 32% from $150 per share to $105, about 9% below where the streamer currently trades.

Woman watching a Roku TV

Image source: Roku.

Too good to be true

Even though one out of every three smart TVs sold in the U.S. is a Roku TV -- and it accounts for one out of every four sold in Canada -- Evans is worried the streaming platform's sustained outperformance in the market means it is benefiting more than the OEMs actually making the sets, particularly its biggest partner TCL.

Manufacturers have been trying to get Roku to participate in revenue sharing, but Roku has resisted the push, with CEO Anthony Wood telling analysts during its earnings conference call earlier this month, "In general, the Roku TV program brings a lot of benefits to our partners, both retailers, and OEMs, everything from strong consumer demand, low returns, great software...So I mean, there are lots of benefits that it brings."

Evans wrote in a note to investors that because the relationship "is tilted heavily toward Roku when it comes to financials," he thinks this is as good as it gets for the tech leader, and goes on to say, he tends to "get worried when things look as good as they can get."

This article represents the opinion of the writer, who may disagree with the “official” recommendation position of a Motley Fool premium advisory service. We’re motley! Questioning an investing thesis -- even one of our own -- helps us all think critically about investing and make decisions that help us become smarter, happier, and richer.