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Can One Medical's Stock Hit $50?

By David Jagielski – May 23, 2020 at 6:28AM

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The stock's been soaring, and it's up 80% so far in 2020.

We saw some disappointing IPOs in 2019, and this year didn't look like a good one for new issues, either -- even before the coronavirus hit. But there's an exception in 1Life Healthcare (ONEM -0.06%), better known as One Medical, which has been paying off for early investors thus far.

Its shares first began trading Jan. 31, and while they've been on a bumpy ride for much of the year, the stock is up about 60% in just the past month. The S&P 500, meanwhile, has increased by less than 4% during that time.

With One Medical on such a tear as of late, let's take a look at what's driving the stock's recent surge and whether it has enough gas to reach $50.

One Medical's coming off a strong start to fiscal 2020

On May 13, the primary care provider released its first-quarter results. During the period ending March 31, its net revenue increased by 25% from the prior-year period to $78.8 million.

Its partnership revenue of $29.5 million rose 69% year over year and added $12 million in revenue during Q1. This is an important and stable segment of its business where sales mainly come from health networks and enterprise clients.

Another important segment is membership revenue, which was up $3 million, or 27%, from the same period last year. The company's annual memberships cost $199 and are a cost-effective alternative for customers without any healthcare coverage through their employers, or those who recently lost their jobs. One Medical's total member count came in at 455,000 as of March 31. That's up 25% from a year ago, when the company had 364,000 members.

A stethoscope and a pen laying on a laptop keyboard

Image source: Getty Images.

Despite the company incurring a loss of $33.9 million during the quarter, investors remain optimistic about One Medical and its future. It was the strong growth in Q1 that ultimately lit a fire under One Medical's stock, sending it to more than $40. Prior to the release of the results, the stock was trading at about $25 per share.

With few companies doing well during the COVID-19 pandemic, One Medical proved that it was among the standouts and one of the safer places to invest today.

Can it get to $50?

The important question for investors today is whether One Medical can continue rising, and whether it could hit the $50 mark. It's already reached $40, and $50 would be the next major milestone for the stock. To assess that, let's take a look at its price-to-sales (P/S) multiple.

Over the past four quarters, the company has generated $276 million in revenue. At a market cap of about $5 billion, that puts it at a P/S ratio of about 17. By comparison, virtual healthcare stock Teladoc Health (TDOC -3.35%) trades at a slightly higher 21 times its revenue and has a market cap of $13 billion.

If One Medical were to rise to $50, that would put it at a valuation of $6.3 billion, and its P/S multiple would then jump to right around where Teladoc's is today. That may be a rich ask for One Medical's stock, as Teladoc saw 41% revenue growth in its most recent quarter and has been one of the hottest stocks on the market this year.

It wouldn't be impossible to see One Medical to rise to $50 based on the results it's shown investors thus far, but it's not a price point that appears to be sustainable just yet given the risks involved. There are still many question marks surrounding One Medical, such as what impact mass layoffs will have on the company's business model and whether it will lose many enterprise clients in the process.

When the company releases its second-quarter results, investors will have a better idea of how resilient the stock has been during the pandemic.

Should you buy One Medical today?

One Medical shows a lot of promise, especially in an era of social distancing when people need to have more flexibility in just about everything they do -- including healthcare. With both virtual and in-house options available for patients, One Medical can serve a variety of different needs. And with affordable pricing, it may become more popular in the weeks and months ahead as people look for cheap options for healthcare, especially if they're out of work. There are plenty of opportunities for One Medical to continue to grow.

The healthcare stock is an attractive long-term buy, but given its high price tag and how volatile the markets have been this year, I'd wait for it to cool off a bit before buying shares of the company.

David Jagielski has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool owns shares of and recommends Teladoc Health. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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Stocks Mentioned

1Life Healthcare, Inc. Stock Quote
1Life Healthcare, Inc.
ONEM
$17.15 (-0.06%) $0.01
Teladoc Health, Inc. Stock Quote
Teladoc Health, Inc.
TDOC
$25.35 (-3.35%) $0.88

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