Do you have stocks that need to be cleaned out of your portfolio? What about trimming the gains of your highfliers? Does any stock in your portfolio spark joy in a way that would make Japanese organizing expert Marie Kondo proud? In this episode of Motley Fool Money, host Chris Hill and analysts Jason Moser and Ron Gross reveal why Disney (NYSE:DIS), Editas (NASDAQ:EDIT), Etsy (NASDAQ:ETSY), Five Below (NASDAQ:FIVE), GameStop (NYSE:GME), Stitch Fix (NASDAQ:SFIX), TripAdvisor (NASDAQ:TRIP), and Wayfair (NYSE:W) are part of their springtime special, and they share actual cleaning tips. Plus, best-selling author and personal finance expert Jean Chatzky shares takeaways from her latest book, Women with Money: The Judgment-Free Guide to Creating the Joyful, Less Stressed, Purposeful (and, Yes, Rich) Life You Deserve.
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This video was recorded on April 2, 2021.
Chris Hill: It's spring break and we are coming to you from South Beach.
Ron Gross: There you go.
Hill: Not really, but we are taking advantage of spring break.
Jason Moser: I'm too old for South Beach. [laughs]
Hill: To bring you our springtime special. If you're new to the show, that means we're going to be leaning heavily into the theme of spring cleaning. Ron Gross, let me start with you. When you think about all the things you do around the yard, trimming those hedges. We've had a bunch of stocks that have really done well over the past 12 months in particular, what does the high flier that you think investors should consider may be trimming?
Gross: Have we not met? Do you think I'm trimming hedges? [laughs] If you had asked me a month ago the same question, I would've had an embarrassment of riches to choose from. But many of those high fliers have already pulled back 15%-20%. That Nasdaq, which is home to many of these companies, is off about 8% from its recent highs. What I did is I went old school, I went to the retail industry to a company we talked about just last week, Five Below. Shares are up 180% over the last year and up 240% from the March 2019 lows. It's now an $11 billion company. Recent quarterly year results were good. You got to give them credit for putting up strong numbers, but this is a discount retailer. This is not a tech company, so we've got growth of 10%, 12%, not 50%. They're launching a new growth engine, a new store prototype called Five Beyond, which will sell somewhat more expensive merchandise. That's a pretty crowded field already, it doesn't excite me. I think the reason you got to trim this one, is because the valuation has just gotten away from reality. 48 times forward earnings, 27 times EBITDA. The Dollar Stores, they only sell around 20 times. Costco, perhaps one of the finest businesses in this general space, only gets a 34 multiple at 48 times forward earnings. I think you've got to trim Five Below.
Hill: Makes sense to me. Jason Moser, what about you?
Moser: A Five Beyond, wow, I wouldn't even. I knew they were digging into that space, but that's fascinating. Yeah. I am going to go with TripAdvisor here. I don't own TripAdvisor anymore, I sold those shares a while back. That was just one of those weeds that I pulled from my portfolio. I think it could be argued that TripAdvisor was a bad business before all of this pandemic stuff hit. I don't think it really is any better of a business now than it was then. It's still very much a company playing defense right now. The market today though, it's giving it a valuation. Ron, they just signed Tom Brady, [laughs] but I don't quite understand it. It's up better than 200% over the last year, 37% over the last three years, but it's actually down 10% over the last five. It seems like the longer you go, the worse that gets. Nothing really fundamentally has changed with the business. Travel obviously is massive. We love it. It's a market you want exposure to.
As a consumer, I find TripAdvisor to be a very valuable and helpful tool, that when we travel, I use it often. They've just not really been able to make that translate into a great business. The most recent quarterly results included guidance and they are ultimately calling for quarter one revenue and adjusted EBITDA to be roughly in line with this past fourth quarter or so. It doesn't look like things are getting any better anytime soon. They've introduced this TripAdvisor Plus subscription service. I like where that's coming from. To me though, it really feels late to the game. I have a hard time seeing it having a tremendous impact because so many users of TripAdvisor services have been trained to get it for free, and if you can't get it from TripAdvisor for free, there are a lot of other places you can. To me, it's been a great run-up. If you own this name, you want to at least take some off the table because I don't know that anything really has fundamentally changed with the business.
Hill: Spring cleaning isn't spring cleaning unless you're actually throwing things away. Ron, what does a stock investor should consider just throwing out altogether?
Gross: I've got to do it, Chris, and tell you that at $13 billion market cap, you got to throw out GameStop. You just have to. It's probably the most famous of the meme stocks, share price is artificially high, largely thanks to the online Reddit community. At the height of this folly, the stock traded at $483 per share, it now sits at about $185. I'll remind listeners that pre-COVID the shares traded for $5 or maybe $6 on a good day. The company has had 12 straight quarters of declining sales. Now, there's a possibility that this company survives. The chewy founder and some other folks have taken control of this company, joined the board trying to recreate it, transform it into the Amazon of gaming. There is a chance that they remain a viable company but you can't pay $13 billion for this company. That absolutely makes no sense. Would you acquire this company for $13 billion? I certainly hope you wouldn't. Therefore, you shouldn't be buying the stock at that price either. I think you've got to throw this one out.
Hill: Jason, what are you throwing out?
Moser: I was back and forth on which one I would trim and which one I would sell. Maybe I got this wrong, but I think I got them right. This is probably going to rub a few people the wrong way, but I'd sell Stitch Fix. It's not a company that I own, but it's a business that as time goes on, it becomes apparent to me that it's not one that I want to own. You remember, just a couple of quarters ago, they had the massive short squeeze after that earnings release that really popped shares. You could just do a little digging into the release and see that the results weren't as good as the credit the market was giving it. But due to that high short interest, the numbers just were the numbers. I will just say, I was a little bit disappointed in management so quickly revising those growth estimates. That's short squeeze was due to those growth estimates of around 20%-25%. The very next quarter, they throttled back those estimates. Right now they're calling for maybe 18%-20% growth on the top-line there. It doesn't look like client count is growing as quickly as it really should be for a business like this. In the most recent quarter, they grew client count 12%. A year ago in the same quarter, that was 17%, so growth is slowing down.
I don't know that they're able to keep those clients on for the long-haul. They talked about the challenges that they're facing in the business. Part of it is longer cycle times and that's not all their fault. This is carrier and client delays, a lot of it has been COVID related no doubt. But then also secondly, and this is similar to what TripAdvisor is doing here, Stitch Fix has this direct buy feature and it's not new. It's been out for a couple of years now in some form, in just a perpetual beta status. It's something that allows existing clients to purchase items directly from Stitch Fix. It doesn't seem like it's that difficult to figure out, but they still haven't really nailed it. It's still basically in beta, and it's still there dragging it out. It leads me to believe that maybe this is a company that's limited in its optionality. You pay a lot to acquire these customers, you really need to keep them, it doesn't really seem like they're doing that good of a job of keeping them. The bottom line for me is just fashion is really hard. It's just really, really difficult. I have a hard time figuring out what to put on in the morning, Chris. I know that Stitch Fix is geared toward helping us fix that, it just doesn't really seem like it's one where I'd feel good about owning shares for long periods of time. I think they're just better ideas out there.
Hill: Let's go to the other end of the spectrum, Ron. In the spirit of Marie Kondo, what is the stock that sparks joy in you?
Gross: For me, it's got to be Disney. First, come on, it's a house of mouse. You've got some of the best, most fun entertainment properties in the world. You got Mickey, sure, but you've got Iron Man and Star Wars and Toy Story, ESPN and ABC, and of course, the amusement parks and the hotels. Two, it's a sentimental favorite for me. It's the first stock I bought for both of my kids almost 20 years ago, and we still own it to this day. Three, the company is transforming itself with Disney+ streaming. The growth has been phenomenal, really impressive there. Finally, COVID took a big whack out of Disney when the parks closed, but the stock has recovered, I think it now represents a wonderful reopened play as the parks come online and people get back out into the world. I like me some Disney.
Hill: Can't argue with that. What about you, Jason?
Moser: Yes sir. This one was easy. First name that came to mind, Wayfair. This is a company that has just done tremendously over the last several years. Year-to-date, the stock is up around 50%. Over the past year that's only up 640%, just middle of the road. The last five years, up 740%. It's been a nice stretch for Wayfair. I understand when the company was just getting its feet on the ground, the skepticism in moving furniture from point A to point B being a very expensive proposition, but these guys have really proven themselves to have figured something out. I think the beauty of it really is in the business model. Being a network as opposed to just an online furniture store, I think that's the key there. I enjoy it as a customer. I enjoy it as a shareholder. I think one of the main reasons I enjoy this as a shareholder is, well, it's really two. When you look at the results over the most recent quarter, total net revenue grew 45% year over year. Gross margin of 29% was up from 22.9% a year ago. The number of active customers reached 31.2 million. At the end of December 2020, that was up 53.7%. Then back to that Stitch Fix challenge, Wayfair is really good at keeping those customers. We use this metric, repeat customers placed 72.5% of total orders delivered in the quarter compared to 68.6% the previous year.
Wayfair does a really good of acquiring the customers and then keeping them and bringing us back to buy more stuff. I can tell you that in our house there's a lot of repeat Wayfair purchases from our house. But perhaps the most joyous of all here is that my share ownership of Wayfair is going to help me finance this massive deck renovation [laughs] at my house here, Chris. This is not going to be a small project and the gains that I have witnessed in my share ownership of Wayfair will help finance those. Knowing that I'm going to look out at this deck for years to come and it will be a Trex deck, by the way, folks, don't make any mistake there, that will spark joy on a daily basis, particularly hey, listen, this summer it sounds like maybe I'm going to be doing a little work on that deck, working from home on that deck and that'll be nice to enjoy the sunny weather.
Hill: It's our springtime special. Of course, Ron, springtime is all about rebirth and renewal. What is a stock or industry that you believe is poised for a comeback?
Gross: I like industrials right here. We've already seen a rotation out of some of the high-flying tech stocks into industrials. But I think this trend still has legs especially if Biden and Congress can pass a meaningful infrastructure plan. It won't be the $3 trillion plan Biden is talking about, but it still could be significant. Industrial companies like Caterpillar, and Newcore, United Rentals, Vulcan Materials, I think should continue to do well as we hopefully begin to rebuild our roads and bridges. Renewable energy companies in the space like NextEra Energy should also do well. Keep an eye on industrials for at least the next couple of years.
Hill: Jason, what about you?
Moser: It's been a bit of a period of stagnation, I guess, for a lot of companies in the semiconductor space. That's for understandable reasons. We've seen a lot of saturation, they're on the handset side of things. But as 5G really starts to become more of a thing and we're going to start seeing that rollout here over the next several years, technology is just playing a much larger role in our lives than ever before. That's not going to change. It's all sorts of drivers in the tech space from 5G to things like immersive technology or Internet of Things, the automobile, and other tremendous opportunities. I think the semiconductor space is really poised for several years of productivity here. Obviously, the supply chain issues right now, the chip shortages are what's making headlines. There's plenty of reasons for that. A lot of it regarding the big demand for electronics and just changing business models and outsourcing production. The Intel news recently, I think, its fascinating trade conflicts. A lot of this stuff all came together and wants to really create the snag in the supply chain there. But I think the next several years with companies like Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM) and Qorvo (NASDAQ: QRVO), I think my sleeper here, Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL), a lot of companies out there that have been investing for this specific period of time, and I think they are coiled springs getting ready to pop.
Hill: It was 2004, the last time we saw the cicadas. If I'm doing my math correctly, it'll be the last time we see them until 2038. With that in mind, Ron, what is the stock that you would be willing to buy and hold until 2038?
Gross: I love this question. For me, it's got to be in the gene therapy space. So I'll go with Editas, a clinical stage biotechnology company that's focused on the CRISPR-Cas9 gene editing technology. That technology can remove, add, or alter individual genes or sections of the DNA sequence which one day could lead to a cure for a wide range of diseases. They're currently focused on diseases of the eye, blood diseases like sickle cell disease, and cancer. Even if things go really well, Editas won't be profitable for a while. Let's keep an eye on the balance sheet, $400 billion on there right now, so we're good for a while. Earlier in 2021, all of these stocks went on a wild ride. Editas pop to $100 per share. Now it's floated back down to Earth, around $40 per share. These are volatile. I always caution everybody. Maybe take a basket approach like I have if you want to invest in this sector, but I think Editas looks good for 17 more years.
Hill: Jason, what about you?
Moser: Putting this in the context of where am I going to be in 17 years makes this seem like a little bit more of a daunting task. Instead I'm looking at this through my daughter's eyes. They're going to be around 33 years old-ish once 17 years pass. I could see them still owning this stock and a stock that I own as well, Etsy. Much like Wayfair, I think Etsy has built a tremendous network. It has a ton of potential. To me, my daughters serve as the eyes for me here. Younger generations of shoppers care about this stuff. Local, small, unique, sustainable, those are the types of things that Etsy is really enabling in this two-sided network that really creates not only terrific marketplace for buyers but also a great place for sellers. There are a lot of small business implications thanks to Etsy's network. If you look at the numbers, they have sellers of 4.36 million now, buyers of 81.365 million. Mobile, they're making tremendous progress on that front as well. Then you look at things like Etsy Ads and Etsy Payments, I think this is going to be a marketplace that's going to be relevant for many, many years to come. So I'm looking forward to hanging on to these shares.
Hill: Ron, we got just over a minute left. One actual cleaning tip. Let's move away from the stocks. Let's get to the actual cleaning. What do you got?
Gross: To clean a barbecue grill, get your grill nice and hot, cut an onion in half, put it on the end of your drilling fork, and rub it all over the grill grate. The onion's juices will release and produce steam and the enzymes from the onion will help break down the oil and the grease on the grates.
Gross: Yeah, there you go.
Hill: I'm excited to try that. All right. Mr. Moser, what do you got?
Moser: [laughs] Is that Ron Gross or Bill Nye The Science Guy? [laughs] Two quick things. Hey listen. Folks, get a cleaning crew every once in a while. I know it's not cheap, but spoil yourself. You do that a few times a year, it's just really nice. Save up little money and spoil yourself. Then on a more daily or weekly note, get one of those Swiffer Dusters with the refills. Those are just really handy. If you're working from home, you've got a few minutes here and there to run a duster around. Here's the tip. Dust the tops of the picture frames in your house and subtly note it to your spouse or significant other. [laughs] It goes a long way.
Hill: Few people have dug into the topic of personal finance as deeply as Jean Chatzky. She's the best-selling author several times over, and for more than 20 years, she was the financial editor for The Today Show. She's the CEO of HerMoney.com. Recently she talked with Megan Brinsfield, director of the advisory team at Motley Fool Wealth Management, about her latest book, Women with Money: The Judgment-Free Guide to Creating the Joyful, Less Stressed, Purposeful, and Yes, Rich Life You Deserve.
Megan Brinsfield: When we talk about the conversation of women and money, a lot of times we're focusing on the negative aspects of that or I would say challenges, in planning for women's longevity, for example, or addressing the gender pay gap. We definitely want to cover those topics. But I would love to start with some of the ways you see women gaining momentum in terms of financial literacy and stability. I know there are a few ways that you mentioned in your recent book, and I would love to start with that as background.
Jean Chatzky: For sure. Heading into the pandemic, we were making progress full steam ahead. There is no denying the fact that the pandemic has set us back a bit, and we can get into that. But if you look at the educational trends, they are in women's favor. 132 women graduated from college compared to 100 men on average over the past couple of years. Women are fast-forwarding when it comes to you getting graduate degrees as graduate degrees and those college degrees are going to drive increased earnings and increased power for women. When you look at the amount of money in the hands of women, it's been growing too, about 45% of the millionaires in this country are already women. We know there's a big intergenerational transfer of wealth that will happen over the next couple of decades. Women are expected to inherit the lion's share of that because we will inherit twice. We'll inherit both from our parents, but also from our husbands that we will outlive, that women's longevity issue that you alluded to. There are a lot of things working in our favor.
Brinsfield: I know you mentioned some of the setbacks that we've seen during the pandemic. Let's not pull any punches here. Let's talk about those as well because they are pretty severe, and I know just on your website recently, there were statistics about how long it's going to take for women to recover from some of these setbacks.
Chatzky: This is to really put us back about 20 years. It's because when a woman takes a step back from the workforce, she doesn't get back in at the same level, typically. It takes her seven years to get back to that level when she reenters the workforce. Because of three factors, the majority of the jobs lost during these pandemic have been jobs lost by women. In part, it's because of the industries that have been impacted. Restaurants, travel, hospitality, retail. In part, it's because of care-giving responsibilities. Women still have the lion's share of those care-giving responsibilities in their households. But it's also because if you are in a two-income family and somebody has to take a step back to keep the ship running on the right course at home, you're going to look at your financial resources. You're going to say, all right, how are we going to prosper best as a family? If the woman is the lower wage earner, which she still is most of the time, the woman is going to be the one to step out.
Brinsfield: Those care-giving responsibilities really do take a toll over the course of a woman's lifetime. I was looking at some data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics that points out that over someone's working career, if you compare male earnings to female earnings and account for those breaks in the workforce, that actually is a cumulative, roughly $1 million in difference in earning power over the course of your working career. That's because of child rearing, care-giving for a parent and care-giving for a spouse, which is quite significant. What are some of the ways that you've seen women taking steps to make up for that?
Chatzky: I think it's important to approach your financial life with a plan to capitalize on all the opportunities that you have to, both gain seniority, but also to stock away money for your future. We know that because of trends in longevity and because of the agenda wage gap, by the time a woman gets to retirement, she has substantially less in her retirement accounts than man typically does or does on average. Then she needs to make that money last a good five years longer. It's part of a planning process of getting started early, making sure that you're doing whatever you can to contribute to those retirement accounts, to put that money to work by investing, which I know you talk about every day, but we still have a bit of a confidence gap when it comes to women and investing.
Women keep way too much of our money in cash when we should be putting it to work in the markets. Even a study that just came out. I believe it was last week, but it may have been the week before from Annamaria Lusardi at, I think it's GW these days, looking at women and how our lack of financial confidence holds us back from investing. She gave women a look at two different financial literacy tests. One of those financial literacy tests offered the words I do not know or don't know as an option to answer the question, and the other did not. When it was the option, women chose it. When it was not the option, women got the answer right. That's a pretty good barometer, that it's confidence, it's not real knowledge that's holding us back. We have to get ourselves to the point where we invest consistently on a regular basis. Much of the work that we do at HerMoney is educating women with our content, with our newsletters, with our podcast on how do you make those decisions, how do you make them in a way where they don't monopolize your whole life, how do you find that financial advisor to help people get on the right track, to make a plan that can set you up for financial success.
The other very important consideration is that one to take a step back from work. Often, I think one parent in the family wants to stay home and can afford to do that while the family continues to prosper, and I'm all for that. But if it's a financial decision that you're making, if you're looking at the money that you're spending either on child care or on eldercare and you start to think, "Well gosh, I'm spending as much on child care as I'm earning, it certainly doesn't make sense to be out in the workforce." You need to think again, because we don't just lose wages when we take a step back from work. We lose Social Security credits, we lose money that we're putting into retirement accounts, we lose seniority, we lose access to our networks. It's a huge cost to pay. If you're just leveling the playing field as far as the money is concerned, the paycheck versus the cost of care, take another look at that decision before you take a step back.
Brinsfield: One of the big topics in planning for women is around longevity, and I know you mentioned before that there's burning the candle at both ends. Having fewer resources and needing to make those resources last longer. When women are planning for longevity in general, women tend to live five years longer than men, so in heterosexual relationships, at least, women are outliving their partners in a large majority of those cases. That combined with relying on a spouse during their lives to take the lead on finances can really leave women surprised and holding the bag, [laughs] to be quite honest, when they find themselves widowed. What resources either through AARP or other organizations that you're affiliated with have you found to be helpful in those situations?
Chatzky: Well, first of all, I think it's really important to try to get educated before you're in that situation. We should not be surprised by these things. I mean, yes, people are surprised when they lose a spouse young and it comes out of nowhere and that happens. But the reality is that the vast majority of us are going to be, and by us, I mean women, are going to be alone and need to manage our money personally and by ourselves at some point in our lives and you're so much better off learning how to do this when you're not grieving or not under tremendous pressure. If you are in a relationship where you are not involved in managing the money, you just got to get in there today, tomorrow, but not next year, not next month. It's sooner rather than later.
This is just something that has to happen and it's an evolution. It's not like you have to get your feet in there and do everything from job one, but you need to know where the money is, you need to know how much there is. You need to know who the important people are and you need to know how to move things around and how to make choices, and hopefully, you have a spouse that says, "Yes, you're right. I don't know why we didn't do this a long time ago". That said, there are a lot of resources. I mean, first I would point people to HerMoney. We publish content every single day. We publish a new podcast every week. We're a top 1% podcast, and we have these conversations about all aspects of your financial life for money is concerned. So it's not just investing, it's careers, it's protecting yourself and your life, it's raising money, smart children, it's all over the map.
The second resource that I would point people to, if you are on your own, unexpectedly, feeling like you need the help of a financial advisor, and particularly if you need the help of a financial advisor and your thinking, "I just can't afford this," there's an organization called Savvy Ladies that you can reach out to, that will offer pro bono financial planning services and they're a wonderful resource, and there's so many more. We've got tons of great resources up at AARP. For women, in particular, I think because of this longevity question, and you know this because you've lived in the same world that I have for so many years, we focus so much on accumulation of assets. We save and save and invest and invest, and the decumulation phase, the how do I make my money last as long as I last, is as important a part of the equation and we don't pay nearly enough attention to it.
So I would say, if you're not sure how you are going to make your money last, that's when you go see a financial advisor and that's when you talk about things like what is going to be coming in, in addition to Social Security in the form of protected income that I can count on for the rest of my life. Is there a pension? Is there a strategy for making the money in the retirement accounts last? Is there a reason that I should be looking into converting some of that money in the retirement accounts into a paycheck using annuities or using other tools that I can do to do that so that I don't have to worry about the fear of running out of money before I run out of time? Because I know, and I'm sure you know, that is the No. 1 fear on the minds of women.
Brinsfield: One thing that I think it's often overlooked in discussions about just progress for women financially, is the help that we need from our male counterparts to make that progress. In the example of, "My spouse handles all of the finances", or "I'm just not interested," I have a lot of coworkers that are in that position. I always go, "Where is your wife?" when we're talking about finances and they go, "She's not interested," and pushing them on that and go like, "Well, just ask them to come to the meeting," or "they don't have to say anything," create a low barrier to entry. But what are some of the ways that you've seen people step up and partner to bring women into the fold on these conversations?
Chatzky: I think an emotional plea is the best plea. What you're really saying is if something were to happen to me, and statistically, as a guy, something is going to happen to me before it happens to you, I don't want you to be lost. I don't want you to feel like you don't know what to do next. We've spent a long time building this family, building this life, you need to understand this so that you can carry on. Just like I would need to understand it without you and there are things about what you do that I don't understand and maybe you can help me with those. I'm not asking you to take over, I'm just asking you to be my partner in this as you're my partner in the rest of our life.
Brinsfield: Absolutely, and I appreciate that so much when I see our male counterparts taking those actions and starting those conversations as well. I'd love to talk about your podcast. It's been around for a minute and I know I've enjoyed it for a long time. Over the years, have there been any surprises that you've found in either guests that you've had on the show or content that you've covered that you might like to highlight here for our viewers?
Chatzky: Boy, there have been so many wonderful guests. I've just been so fortunate to talk to amazing people. One of my recent favorites was an episode with a doctor named Romie Mushtaq. She's a neurologist and she specializes in helping us calm down our busy brains, and I think during this pandemic her techniques have been so helpful because we're stressed. Even if financially we're doing OK, we're suffering from pandemic fatigue, and so I would say, she offered up a couple of meditations and things that were really helpful to me. You mentioned on the subject of the unlevel playing field that many of us have with our spouses, particularly when it comes to housework and caregiving. Eve Rodsky was a guest, she wrote the book Fair Play, and she was terrific on how you square that; how do you really take what's going on in your household and rejigger it so that it does work for everybody. Let me think. Karen Finerman, she's on CNBC's Fast Money. A lot of people will know her from there. We were talking about the volatility in the markets, and Bitcoin, and SPACs, and GameStop, and what has happened to make the market so volatile and so odd during this pandemic, and she was a terrific guest. I could go on and on. We've done almost 300 podcasts, we've been around for five years. People I know dig back into our archives and start at the beginning, which is terrific. I think the very first one we did was Gretchen Rubin on happiness and money, and it's still an episode that is well worth listening to.
Hill: You can find the HerMoney podcast the same place you find Motley Fool Money: Apple, Spotify, Stitcher, anywhere you find podcasts. That's going to do it for this week's show. It's mixed by Dan Boyd, our producer is Mac Greer. I'm Chris Hill, thanks for listening, we'll see you next week.